Long EURAUD again 1.5257

This blog is chiefly a log of my trades, as close to real-time as possible, together with occasional commentary. It serves as a public record of my trading performance and also a personal trading diary. I follow my proprietary trading ‘system’ of swing trading based entirely on classical technical analysis.I try to avoid making any forecasts, since I really don’t care which direction the markets take, as long as my system catches the turn and rides the trend.If you have come here for bold forecasts or dramatic, sparkling commentary, forget this site. But if you are a serious trader keen to learn how to make consistent profits, you are welcome. A real-time twitter trade alert subscription service is available. Sign up at http://…

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

19.20 gmt

EURAUD looks set to resume its upward march, and I am entering long again.

Long $8/pip EURAUD @ 1.5257, SL around 1.5200.

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Long EURAUD again 1.5257

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Week In FX Asia – Chinese Fortunes Tough to Pin Down

via MarketPulse:

Should we be concerned about the rumors of a pending credit crunch in China? The beauty of a one-party system is its political flexibility. With authorities having the power and ability to strike a balance quickly between reforms to its financial sector and economic expansion, it should allow China to achieve its growth target of +7.6% this year. But the reality is that issues surrounding China’s shadow banking system are not going away any time soon — their growing domestic U.S. debt levels are making the global markets a tad nervous. Analysts are worried about investment dominating gross domestic product growth.

Whenever discussing China, it’s not too much of a surprise to see the nation’s data defy even the most bullish of market expectations. Earlier this week, Chinese imports were up +10% year-over-year against +4% expected, while exports rose +11% against a flat forecast. If anything, numbers like these lead to more questions. How accurate are they and is the market comfortable with them? Only a few should be able to answer that in the affirmative, especially with such a big miss. It seems rather convenient that when the market ever doubts the global economy, Chinese data comes up trumps. Despite this, China’s widened trade surplus and continued capital inflows should show that the yuan remains under pressure to appreciate. Analysts are expecting the RMB to finally break that psychological 6.0 handle later this year. But one must consider the interfering People’s Bank of China (PBoC) before jumping to conclusions.

The yuan closes out the week falling against the dollar after further PBoC intervention. Authorities set the dollar/yuan at 6.1070. Lately, the PBoC has been actively slowing its rising pace especially after the massive dollar sell-off that was initiated at the beginning of the year. It’s noteworthy to mention the yuan has fallen -0.2% since the start of 2014 after gaining +2.9% last year.

• China’s Producer Prices Fall Again


• Asian Equities Mixed after China Inflation Data


• Chinese Inflation Remained Stable in January


• China’s Inflation Remains Benign


• Asian Stocks Recovering Yesterday’s Losses


• Japan’s Q4 Growth Boosted By Pre-Tax-Hike Shopping


• China Limits Bank’s Off Balance Sheet Investments


• Japan Machine Orders Fall 15.7 Percent in December


• Australian Unemployment Soars to 6%


• Malaysia Budget Deficit Narrowing


• Singapore Aiming To Position Itself as Region’s Legal Hub


• Thailand To End Rice Scheme


• BoJ Kuroda Says He is Ready to Adjust Policy if Needed


• IMF Official Says BoJ Does Not Need to Ease Further


• Singapore Faces Real Estate Bubble Challenge


• China’s Trade Data Eases Concerns


• Chinese Banks Face Competitions From Private Funds


• Yellen Agrees BoJ Stimulus Needed


• Japan’s Current Account Surplus Decline Could Signal Trouble


• China Missing out on Billions in Lost Taxes


• Abenomics Should be Widely Accepted

WEEK AHEAD

* JPY Gross Domestic Product

* GBP Consumer Price Index

* EUR German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment

* USD Consumer Price Index

* CAD Consumer Price Index

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Week In FX Asia – Chinese Fortunes Tough to Pin Down

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Global Ideas News Brief: Mapping the next coup

BusinessEmerging Markets Are Crashing: Should We Be Worried?The AtlanticDeveloping countries used to be sources of stability for the global economy. Now they’re its biggest threat.An awakening giantEconomistIf Africa’s economies are to take off, Africans will have to start making a lot more things. They may well do so.The Challenges of Running Responsible Supply ChainsNYTBangladesh is just one link in the global supply chain. As a result of globalization, almost every item bought by consumers in developed countries is produced at least in part by low-wage workers in developing countries. While it’s true that these jobs have lifted many individuals out of grueling poverty, it’s also true that many of them work in conditions that violate acceptable standards in the United States and other …

via Global Envision:

Image:

Business

Emerging Markets Are Crashing: Should We Be Worried?

The Atlantic

Developing countries used to be sources of stability for the global economy. Now they're its biggest threat.

An awakening giant

Economist

If Africa’s economies are to take off, Africans will have to start making a lot more things. They may well do so.

The Challenges of Running Responsible Supply Chains

NYT

Bangladesh is just one link in the global supply chain. As a result of globalization, almost every item bought by consumers in developed countries is produced at least in part by low-wage workers in developing countries. While it’s true that these jobs have lifted many individuals out of grueling poverty, it’s also true that many of them work in conditions that violate acceptable standards in the United States and other developed countries.

The Limits of Buy-One Give-One

Stanford Social Innovation Review

Most socially responsible businesses won’t succeed by giving away something for free.

Food

The Ethiopian Approach to Food Security

Stanford Social Innovation Review

How one African country is changing how we feed the world.

Peace

A worrying map of the countries most likely to have a coup in 2014

Washington Post

By tracking over a dozen variables – from political system to years of independence the presence of absence of an "elite" ethnic group – the model roughly estimates the likelihood that each country will experience a coup this year.

South Sudan’s Unfinished Business

NYT opinion

Even peace would be a partial solution, because it cannot address the underlying cause of the strife: the lack of competent institutions of governance in the fledgling republic.

Energy

The World's Horrible Weather Just Means We Need To Keep Supporting A Clean Energy Revolution

Fast.Co.Exist

Projects around the world–from bamboo bikes in Ghana to solar power in Bangalore slums–might seem small. But together, they might change our footprint.

Aid

In Syria, aid workers brave mortar shells, gunfire to deliver food to Homs

Washington Post

Humanitarian workers braved mortar shells and gunfire Sunday as they pushed forward with their mission to deliver aid into besieged parts of the Syrian city of Homs and evacuate citizens, a day ahead of peace talks between the two sides.

Philippine Children Still Struggling Months After Deadly Typhoon

Wall Street Journal

Three months after Typhoon Haiyan devastated the central Philippines, children living in the disaster zone still face daily challenges from ongoing disruptions to school and family life – and will continue to struggle if they fail to find some normalcy.

Interest

‪Bill Gates Debunks Myths About Poverty

Late Night with Jimmy Fallon

Jimmy asks Bill about some of the myths debunked in the 2014 Gates Annual Letter, including the idea that poor countries are doomed to stay poor.

Articles You Might Like:

The curse on gum arabic in Sudan

Farm business advisors deliver products and profits to Cambodia’s rural farmers

What do we mean by 'Shared Value'?

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Global Ideas News Brief: Mapping the next coup

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USDJPY: closed short at 102.17, -52 pips

USDJPY: closed short at 102.17, -52 pipsFebruary 7, 201414.25 gmtHave decided to close the UJ shorts too.Closed $25/pip short UJ at 102.17, -52 pips.Today’s experience again reinforces some lessons I’ve learned many, many times:1. Never trade fast markets, especially after a big data event like today’s. 9/10 time the prices in the first few minutes are a fake-out.2. It is best to stay out of events like this. I usually would follow this rule but I had to be extra careful due to the long UJ and GJ exposure I still have.Strangely enough its cable that is taking off higher, most other pairs are unsure. The SP500 is up over 1785, which is also strange given the data today. It almost makes one think of conspiracy theories – the SP500 …

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

14.25 gmt

Have decided to close the UJ shorts too.

Closed $25/pip short UJ at 102.17, -52 pips.

Today’s experience again reinforces some lessons I’ve learned many, many times:

1. Never trade fast markets, especially after a big data event like today’s. 9/10 time the prices in the first few minutes are a fake-out.

2. It is best to stay out of events like this. I usually would follow this rule but I had to be extra careful due to the long UJ and GJ exposure I still have.

Strangely enough its cable that is taking off higher, most other pairs are unsure. The SP500 is up over 1785, which is also strange given the data today. It almost makes one think of conspiracy theories – the SP500 is being pumped, and with the correlations with yen pairs programmed into the altos, they take care of all other markets.

For more info: USDJPY: closed short at 102.17, -52 pips

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USDJPY: closed short at 102.17, -52 pips

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FX Trading ideas forex market forecasts predictions 07 February …

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Forex trading views, ideas, predictions, forecasts for foreign exchange markets, FX technical analysis 07 February 2014.

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Trader Chat, January 27 – Business Insider

REUTERS/ Brendan McDermid Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus passes along his roundup of what traders are chatting about on this very busy morning. Good Morning! US Futures are higher this AM – with the E-Minis tacking on 40bp, but Nasdaq lagging by 20bp despite AAPL being well bid into earnings tonight, as CSCO is off 2% (JPM), Solar companies are under pressure (Lower China projections), and there is some bloodletting in Biotech. EU Markets have been steadily recovering from lows, as we remove some of the terrors from last week: France was not downgraded, and the China Trust is not defaulting. Interesting the EU fins are only off 70bp, as headlines from Germany suggest Capital Shortfalls in excess of $110B (The 2 main banks needing Capital, …

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Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus passes along his roundup of what traders are chatting about on this very busy morning. Good Morning! US Futures are higher this AM � with the E-Minis tacking on 40bp, but Nasdaq lagging by …

For more info: Trader Chat, January 27 – Business Insider

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Trader Chat, January 27 – Business Insider

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Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back …

FX markets featured significant volatility in the past week, though the driver of that volatility was a combination of several idiosyncratic factors, rather than a core underlying narrative. Widespread risk aversion and position unwinds dominated market trading with China PMI, weak US earnings, and BoJ un-dovishness cited among more systemic factors. Turkey and Argentina (among others) have more idiosyncratic risks (and limits approaching) but as Barclays notes, market positioning has played a major role in the moves as market volatility appears to have been the straw that broke the carry-trade’s back – for now… as EM currency returns have notably decoupled from moves in US rates.Barclays on carry-US rates dislocationFX markets featured significant volatility in the past week, though the driver of that volatility …

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FX markets featured significant volatility in the past week, though the driver of that volatility was a combination of several idiosyncratic factors, rather than a core underlying narrative. Widespread risk aversion and position …

For more info: Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back …

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Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back …

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1994-2013 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

1994-2013 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

via My Money Blog:

Reader Ben shared this in the comments, and I think it deserves a separate mention. Every year, investment consultant firm Callan Associates updates a neat visual representation of the relative performance of 8 major asset classes over the last 20 years. You can find the most recent one below (click to view PDF), which covers 1994 to 2013. Each year, the best performing asset class is listed at the top, and it sorts downward until you have the worst performing asset. You can find previous versions here.

You can try to find some patterns, but I doubt you’ll find anything significant. Sometimes an asset class has a hot streak that last a few years, and other times an asset class is on top one year and bottom the next. Most recently, Emerging markets equities were on top in 2012, and bottom in 2013.

Also, while the table compares relative performance, you can also note that absolute performance changes all the time as well. In 2013 the best asset class returned +43% while the worst asset class returned -2%. Contrast this with 2008, when the best asset class returned +5% while the worst asset class returned -53%. Sometimes you just can’t lose, and other times you just can’t win.

So I won’t bother predicting what will happen in 2014, and will instead continue owning multiple, less-correlating asset classes using low-cost passive investments. Oh, and I make sure to rebalance them regularly.

Forex market orders for AUDUSD 14 January 2014 | ForexLive

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Currency exchange is not a hobby for spare cash like it is for some of the people on these boards. I do invest in equities though�. compared to stock markets where there's at least a semblance of regulation to prevent insider …

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Short EURAUD @ 1.5243

This blog is chiefly a log of my trades, as close to real-time as possible, together with occasional commentary. It serves as a public record of my trading performance and also a personal trading diary. I follow my proprietary trading ‘system’ of swing trading based entirely on classical technical analysis.I try to avoid making any forecasts, since I really don’t care which direction the markets take, as long as my system catches the turn and rides the trend.If you have come here for bold forecasts or dramatic, sparkling commentary, forget this site. But if you are a serious trader keen to make profits, you are welcome to check here and follow my trades if you wish. The subject line of each post is also …

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

13.52 gmt

New short EURAUD @ 1.5243, SL 1.5340.

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Short EURAUD @ 1.5243

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Trader Chat, Jan. 1, 2014 – Business Insider

Sam Ro Jan. 6, 2014, 7:46 AM1,026 Email More Share on Tumblr REUTERS/Carlo AllegriMmm hmm. Mm hm. Mm hm. Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a roundup of what traders are chatting about ahead of the U.S. market open. Good Morning, and welcome to “Blue Monday” – the most “miserable” day of the year! US futures are shrugging that off, gaining small but near overnight highs. European Markets are starting on a decent footing, with the DAX gaining 30bp, but Spain is surging on Economic data – helping the EU fins to jump over 1% today. Volumes remain very light in Europe, with most markets trading 25% light to recent 20day averages. It was a touch bloody over in Asia, with Shanghai down almost 2% to a 5 month …

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Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a roundup of what traders are chatting about ahead of the U.S. market open. Good Morning, and welcome to �Blue Monday� � the most �miserable� day of the year! US futures are shrugging that …

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Trader Chat, Jan. 1, 2014 – Business Insider

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The Four Biggest Mistakes Traders Make – Failure to Control Risk …

HTTP Error 403 The Market Oracle Server Error 403 We’re sorry, but we could not fulfill your request for /Article43788.html on this server. An invalid request was received from your browser. This may be caused by a malfunctioning proxy server or browser privacy software. Your technical support key is: a290-4414-45b3-5e30 You can use this key to fix this problem yourself. If you are unable to fix the problem yourself, please contact site_admin at marketoracle.co.uk and be sure to provide the technical support key shown above. Daily Financial Markets Analysis

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The Four Biggest Mistakes Traders Make – Failure to Control Risk :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.

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FX Trading ideas forex market forecasts predictions 27 December …

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Forex trading views, ideas, predictions, forecasts for foreign exchange markets, FX technical analysis 27 December 2013.

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Gold and Silver – Daily Outlook for December 26th

via Trading NRG:

Following last week’s FOMC decision to mini-taper QE3 by $10 billion, the markets have calmed down this week. Further, the holiday season in the U.S and Europe has curbed down the volatility in the commodities, forex and stock markets. This…

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Gold and Silver – Daily Outlook for December 26th

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#PreMarket Primer: Tuesday, December 24: Twas The Day Before …

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… percent while the S&P 500 finished 0.53 percent higher as the technology sector soared. Apple's deal with the world's largest wireless carrier gave the company a much needed boost in Asian markets where its smartphones are struggling to compete with competitors. … Lightspeed Trading Presents: Thunder and Tubleweeds: Trading Techniques for the New Market Enviroment · Pope Francis Rips 'Trickle-Down' Economics · Come See How the Pro's Trade in this …

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Why Traders Lose Money Trading Markets :: The Market Oracle …

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New: long EURUSD @ 1.3534

New: long EURUSD @ 1.3534November 26, 201300.01 gmtDecided to go long, as per the earlier trade.Long $5/pip @ 1.3534, SL 1.3483The EJ looks more uncertain, so I’ll hold off on it.p.s. Edit 00.35 gmtI will be busy today and will not have time to look at the markets until after London open. Therefore I have put in a limit order to close the EU long at B-E. And if it crashes to below 1.35, I will get out.Another example of how real life interferes with trading plans About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google From → Trades

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

00.01 gmt

Decided to go long, as per the earlier trade.

Long $5/pip @ 1.3534, SL 1.3483

The EJ looks more uncertain, so I’ll hold off on it.

p.s. Edit 00.35 gmt

I will be busy today and will not have time to look at the markets until after London open. Therefore I have put in a limit order to close the EU long at B-E. And if it crashes to below 1.35, I will get out.

Another example of how real life interferes with trading plans

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