Asian Stocks Mostly Higher Ahead Of HSBC Chinese PMI

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Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index paring last week’s losses, as Japanese markets reopened ahead of a private gauge of factory production in China.

Japan’s Topix (TPX) index gained 1.2 percent after a three-day weekend. Macquarie Group Ltd. gained 3.6 percent as Australia’s biggest investment bank said it expects full-year earnings to rise as much as 45 percent. Yamato Holdings Co., a parcel delivery company, surged 4.9 percent in Tokyo on a report it will form a tie with China Post Group.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent to 133.43 as of 9:22 a.m. in Tokyo after declining 1.2 percent last week. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index gained 0.1 percent.

A China purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics is projected to signal a third straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Bloomberg

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Week in FX Asia – Asian Currencies Feel Yellen Effect

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The Janet Yellen era at the United States Federal Reserve has officially begun. Her first Federal Open Market Committee was memorable. The actual FOMC statement was what the market has come to expect from central bank communication: Optimistic, but cautious. The expected $10 billion added taper continues the trend set by Bernanke in the December FOMC. What took markets by surprise was Mrs Yellen first post FOMC press conference.

The Fed chair said that the quantitative easing program would could end by fall if the current pace continues to be constant and rates could be higher six months after that. Nowhere in the FOMC statement did that timeline appear. In fact the actual release foresaw low rates for “considerable time”. Yellen surprised by giving a closer date that most analyst expected given other Fed members previous statements.

What begun last summer with another apparent off script comment from Ben Bernanke regarding tapering seems to be moving forward. The era of record low rates around the world seems to be over. Emerging markets were particularly hard-hit by the tapering announcement. This time around the USD has made big gains against all currencies across the board.

The Japanese yen was feeling the pressure of higher demand for the currency which made it strengthen against the USD. This is not beneficial for Prime Minister Abe’s plans to stimulate Japan’s economic growth. A strong yen would make it harder to turn around an export led economy. Following Yellen’s comments the JPY broke through the 102 line which should give a breather to the Bank of Japan. Governor Kuroda is set to speak in London on Saturday and some of his comments will probably discuss the current state of the currency.

The CNY is under pressure from global growth expectations. Major investment banks have downgraded their forecasts of Chinese GDP. Rumours that have started to solidify around a real estate developer bankruptcy has capped the stock markets. The extra 1% added to the CNY trading band to expand it to 2% has helped the currency have extra flexibility that traders have used to reduced their holdings.

The INR dropped a two month low after the Fed hinted rates could go higher as soon as next spring but quickly recovered and is now trading above the week’s open. Global macroeconomic trends have put pressure on the Indian economy as there are still question marks around the political landscape as the country gears up for elections. The INR has showed resilience after last summer’s tapering announcement and has managed to reassure investors as one of the more solid markets in the BRIC and other emerging markets.

• China’s 2014 7.5 Percent GDP Target In Jeopady


• Thai Court Ruled February Elections Unconstitutional


• China Close To Fresh Stimulus if Slowdown Continues


• Asian Stocks Higher But Currencies Remain Bearish


• Declines In China ADRs Send Hong Kong Stocks Into Bear Market


• Japanese Parliament Enacts 2014 Record Budget


• Corporate Japan Wants Better Diplomatic Relationship With China


• CNY Continues Downward Trend


• Yuan Forwards Hit Critical Levels – Risk Major Sell Off


• China’s Debt Issue Unlikely To Hit Lehman Contagion Levels


• Asian Stocks Lower On Yellen’s Rate Hike Guidance


• BoJ Could Increase Stimulus After Sales Tax Rise


• BoJ Governor Kuroda Stays Confident on Reaching 2 Percent Inflation Target


• Japan’s PM Hopes Wage Increases Trickle Down To Smaller Businesses


• Land Prices Rise in Japan’s Major Metropolitan Areas


• CNY Falls to Year Low After Trading Band Extension


• Japanese Deficit Shrinks in February


• Singapore’s 2014 Growth Forecast Cut To 3.8%


• PBOC Not Part Of “Emergency Meeting” On Chinese Developer Collapse


• Chinese Housing Prices Slow Down in February


• Chinese Real Estate Stocks Hit By Developer Default Rumors


• Stagnating Chinese Property Market Increases Default Risks


• Analysts Opinions On Japanese Sales Tax Mixed


• Japanese Government Maintains Upbeat View of Economy

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Consumer Price Index

* USD Durable Goods Orders

* JPY National Consumer Price Index

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* GBP UK Gross Domestic Product

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 24, 2014

Show full picture Since January 24, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving to the downside within the depicted bearish channel. On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit indicating weakness of the ongoing bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the bulls established an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline is roughly located at 1.5265. Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with Four-Hour fixation above price level of 1.5265. Projection target of this confirmed pattern is located at 1.5525 as long as neckline remains defended by the bulls (our stop loss level). On the other hand, consolidation below 1.5265 threatens our bullish view hindering further bullish progression allowing a sideway movement to take place between 1.5265 and 1.5080. Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award…

via Forex analysis review:

Since January 24, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving to the downside within the depicted bearish channel.

On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit indicating weakness of the ongoing bearish momentum.

Simultaneously, the bulls established an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline is roughly located at 1.5265.

Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with Four-Hour fixation above price level of 1.5265.

Projection target of this confirmed pattern is located at 1.5525 as long as neckline remains defended by the bulls (our stop loss level).

On the other hand, consolidation below 1.5265 threatens our bullish view hindering further bullish progression allowing a sideway movement to take place between 1.5265 and 1.5080.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Week In FX Asia – Chinese Fortunes Tough to Pin Down

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Should we be concerned about the rumors of a pending credit crunch in China? The beauty of a one-party system is its political flexibility. With authorities having the power and ability to strike a balance quickly between reforms to its financial sector and economic expansion, it should allow China to achieve its growth target of +7.6% this year. But the reality is that issues surrounding China’s shadow banking system are not going away any time soon — their growing domestic U.S. debt levels are making the global markets a tad nervous. Analysts are worried about investment dominating gross domestic product growth.

Whenever discussing China, it’s not too much of a surprise to see the nation’s data defy even the most bullish of market expectations. Earlier this week, Chinese imports were up +10% year-over-year against +4% expected, while exports rose +11% against a flat forecast. If anything, numbers like these lead to more questions. How accurate are they and is the market comfortable with them? Only a few should be able to answer that in the affirmative, especially with such a big miss. It seems rather convenient that when the market ever doubts the global economy, Chinese data comes up trumps. Despite this, China’s widened trade surplus and continued capital inflows should show that the yuan remains under pressure to appreciate. Analysts are expecting the RMB to finally break that psychological 6.0 handle later this year. But one must consider the interfering People’s Bank of China (PBoC) before jumping to conclusions.

The yuan closes out the week falling against the dollar after further PBoC intervention. Authorities set the dollar/yuan at 6.1070. Lately, the PBoC has been actively slowing its rising pace especially after the massive dollar sell-off that was initiated at the beginning of the year. It’s noteworthy to mention the yuan has fallen -0.2% since the start of 2014 after gaining +2.9% last year.

• China’s Producer Prices Fall Again


• Asian Equities Mixed after China Inflation Data


• Chinese Inflation Remained Stable in January


• China’s Inflation Remains Benign


• Asian Stocks Recovering Yesterday’s Losses


• Japan’s Q4 Growth Boosted By Pre-Tax-Hike Shopping


• China Limits Bank’s Off Balance Sheet Investments


• Japan Machine Orders Fall 15.7 Percent in December


• Australian Unemployment Soars to 6%


• Malaysia Budget Deficit Narrowing


• Singapore Aiming To Position Itself as Region’s Legal Hub


• Thailand To End Rice Scheme


• BoJ Kuroda Says He is Ready to Adjust Policy if Needed


• IMF Official Says BoJ Does Not Need to Ease Further


• Singapore Faces Real Estate Bubble Challenge


• China’s Trade Data Eases Concerns


• Chinese Banks Face Competitions From Private Funds


• Yellen Agrees BoJ Stimulus Needed


• Japan’s Current Account Surplus Decline Could Signal Trouble


• China Missing out on Billions in Lost Taxes


• Abenomics Should be Widely Accepted

WEEK AHEAD

* JPY Gross Domestic Product

* GBP Consumer Price Index

* EUR German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment

* USD Consumer Price Index

* CAD Consumer Price Index

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Asian Equities Higher after U.S. Lead

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Asian stock markets rose on Monday following last week’s rally on Wall Street, as investors brushed off a worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posting their best two-day gains in four months despite January’s weak non-farm payrolls report. 113,000 jobs were created last month, well below estimates of 185,000, while the jobless rate fell to 6.6 percent versus expectations of 6.7 percent.

“The Fed is not likely to consider the non-farm payrolls report solely in its decision without due regard to the range of labor market indicators available, and in that context things are looking stable,” wrote analysts at Mizuho Bank in a morning note.

CNBC

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Week in FX Asia – Reserve Bank of Australia Hold Rate and Moves to Neutral

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Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates and Changes Stance to Neutral

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, where it has been pegged since August. This didn’t grab much attention from the markets, but the Rate Statement did. Governor Glenn Stevens noted that interest rates are at an appropriate level, indicating a shift from easing to a neutral stance. He also made a point of noting the Australian dollar’s strong decline, stating that it will “assist in achieving balanced growth” for the Australian economy. Stevens refrained from saying that the Australian dollar was “uncomfortably high” as he has done in the past. The RBA has room to be pleased, as the Aussie has shed 8% of its value in the past three months.

Abenomics Was Praised For its Effect on the Yen Now Catches Blame for Lower Stock Market

The Nikkei Index did not escape the global stock market slowdown. It is down 1 percent in a week that had the European Central Bank and the Bank of England hold rates and disappointing earning in the US. The most anticipated event of the week was the US jobs report which came in at 113,000 new jobs in January. The number was below expectation of around 180,000 which made the JPY strengthen versus the dollar deflating one of Shinzo Abe’s ongoing victory of a weak currency. The markets continue to question Abe’s ability to deliver arrows number two and three in his three arrow strategy. The first arrow launched a monetary policy stimulus that so far has been successful in driving the stock market higher and the Yen lower. This has benefit the inflation numbers which for the first time in decades have posted consecutive positive numbers escaping deflation.

This week several analyst and managers have forecasted trouble ahead for Abe’s Japan if the government spending continues without any deep reforms. Labour, fiscal and trade reforms are on the agenda, but so far Abe has only promised changes and failed to deliver them. The second and third arrows depend on Abe taking a hard stance to push through the unpopular reforms. He has tried to sweeten the labor changes with again a promise to raise wages. Industry groups have agreed in principle to those raises, but only after Abe delivers the reforms.

China returns from Lunar Year Holiday to Slowing PMIs

The Chinese Yuan gained versus the US dollar over 2 percent in 2013. The government’s mission to increase CNY convertibility and liquidity paid off when the BIS triennial survey welcomed the currency to the top 10 most traded globally. This Friday marked the end of the Lunar Year holiday and disappointing reports awaited Chinese traders. The official purchasing manager index fell to 50.5. Still above the expansionary measure of 50, but below the January reading of 51. China’s services sector also showed a slowdown this week. The HSBC/Markit Services PMI showed a fall as the index is 50.7 in January versus December’s 50.9

• Emerging Markets Look To China To Pull Region Higher


• Asian Currencies Higher


• Central Bank: Philippines Strong Fundamentals Will Attract Investors Soon


• Asian Equities Mainly Higher


• RBA Shifts to a Neutral Policy Stance


• China Buying More Meat From Australia and New Zealand


• Money Escaping Asia At Tremendous Rate


• Indonesia’s GDP Surprise Masking Fundamental Growth Issues


• Asian Equities Climbing Higher Despite US Disappointment


• Yen’s Impact on Stocks and Profits


• Japan Could Face Bond Default


• US-Japan TPP Deadlock Blocks Trade Deal Progress


• Japanese Monthly Wages at Record Low in 2013


• Japan New Car Sales Rise to 15 Year High


• Thai Political Crisis Continues As Rice Scandal Grows


• Singapore’s Stability Drawing Safe Haven Flow


• Japan’s Wages Increase Again


• Yen Weakens on Rally in Emerging Markets


• Emerging Markets Suffer Largest Outflow


• Japan’s Banks Will Benefit From Economic Stimulus


• Japan and European Union Continue Free Trade Talks


• Abenomics Trickle Down Stops At Big Firms


• Forecast sees Japan Missing Target

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Bank of England Inflation Report

* AUD Employment Change

* USD Advance Retail Sales

* CNY Consumer Price Index

* EUR French Gross Domestic Product

* EUR German Gross Domestic Product

* USD U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence

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Week In FX Asia – EM Woes Go Beyond Tapering And Soft China Data

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This weeks Emerging Markets FX landscape bore witness to some extreme price action moves, well beyond the “Fragile Five” that will surely have convinced many investors to contemplate cutting exposure to the region even further.

The EM price movement is not just about the Fed’s tapering plans – investors are also trying to adjust their portfolios to the global market concerns as to whether China can smoothly deleverage its financial sector, and on the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike as QE draws to a close.

Currently, there are no obvious reasons to want to buy the region, in fact the EM currencies with current account deficits and low FX reserves will remain the most vulnerable. Topping many analysts’ lists and source of potential contagion remains the Turkish Lira (TRY). Political constraints on the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) and dwindling FX reserves would suggest that the country faces a massive battle to stem the loss of market confidence that has certainly widened this week.

After the initial euphoria of the CBRT aggressive rate hike earlier in the week, the TRY continues to trade lower and is ending this Friday’s Euro session on fresh day-lows (2.2832). The market continues to gravitate towards the relative safety of the JPY and the USD after both weak Euro inflation numbers and a disappointing German December sales data print early Friday morning is not helping the 18-member single currency’s plight.

China’s growth prospects are a global concern, with many analysts beginning to slash their Q1 2014 growth forecast from their prior call of 7.4% to a new growth rate of 6%. The governments reform agenda rolled out late last year were greeted with some euphoria by the market. Now that the dust has settled, it’s naïve to suspect that the implementation of reforms could proceed without causing some economic pain to the worlds second largest economy. China continues to face the “three R’s: retreat in growth, structural reforms, and credit risks.”

• Japan Should Start Aiming Higher


• China May Be OK in 2014


• Recovery Signs sees U.S. Dollar’s Best Week in Four Years


• Asian Currencies Lower over China Concerns


• 2014 Shaping Up to be a Worse Year for Emerging Markets


• Japan’s Inflation Accelerates


• Japan Making Progress as CPI up 1.3%


• Malaysia Not Pressured To Raise Rates


• What Happens in EM Stays in EM Says Goldman


• Japan’s Ministry of Finance Says Regions Are On Way to Recovery


• Japan’s PM Abe Hopeful BoJ To Stay the Stimulus Course


• China’s Growth Hurt by Corruption Crackdown


• China Bailing Out Failing Trust Investments


• Market Divided on NZ Central Bank’s Next Move


• Thai Crisis Could Deter New Foreign Investment


• Japan Hits Record Trade Deficit


• Current Yen Level Perfect For Japanese Economy


• Does China Have A Major Shadow Banking Problem?

WEEK AHEAD

* USD ISM Manufacturing

* AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

* NZD Unemployment Rate

* GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

* EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

* CAD Unemployment Rate

* GBP Gross Domestic Product Estimate

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