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sabato 26 aprile 2014

Week In FX Asia – PBoC Sets Yuan Fix Higher

Week In FX Asia – PBoC Sets Yuan Fix Higher





via MarketPulse:



S&P did not limit its focus to Russia on Friday. The rating agency noted that China shipbuilding, metal, mining and building material companies are vulnerable to defaults.


“A slowing economy and tough operating conditions in some leveraged industries facing cyclical downturns and overcapacity will lead to more missed payments” noted the agency.


However on the positive side, S&P does not see a “Lehman moment” because banks are predominately funded with retail and business deposits. However, it cannot rule out distress and credit losses over the next couple of years. Markets can expect Beijing to continue to support the financial system (especially banks) at least until authorities can administer orderly closings of troubled entities.


Last week’s Q1 GDP report from China was significant, it not only revealed a slowdown in GDP growth to +7.4%, but also indicated that economy wide inflation slumped further towards outright “deflation.” There is a fear that deterioration in Chinese economic data will lead to exporting deflation via unavoidable Chinese currency devaluation.


The RMB is ending the week on a sour note, extending losses despite the PBoC setting the yuan fix stronger for the third consecutive session. At one point during Friday’s intraday session the yuan happened to fall to its lowest level in 16-months. The central parity is set at 6.1576 vs. Thursdays 6.1589 (offshore NDF’s 6.2669). It seems that the PBoC is deliberately setting the rate higher to perhaps give the perception that they are not intently weakening the yuan. Dealers still expect the Yuan to remain weak in Q2 on concerns of China’s slowing economy.













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WEEK AHEAD


* GBP Gross Domestic Product

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* USD Consumer Confidence

* EUR German Unemployment Rate

* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

* CAD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

* USD ISM Manufacturing

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

* USD Unemployment Rate



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mercoledì 26 marzo 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014



Show full picture Overview: USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed’s Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week’s Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank’s policy, and that he was “a bit surprised” by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U…



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Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed’s Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week’s Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank’s policy, and that he was “a bit surprised” by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U.S. January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index post a smaller-than-expected 13.2% on-year increase (versus +13.5% forecast), Richmond Fed’s manufacturing current business conditions index fell to -7 in March, its lowest since July 2013, from -6 in February; while U.S. February new home sales fell bigger-than-expected 3.3% to 440,000 (versus 445,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and weaker USD demand on diminished expectations for earlier rate rise.


Technical сomment:


Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode; but stochastics is neutral, 15-day moving average is meandering sideways.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 102.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 102.


Resistance levels:



102.65



102.85



103.15


Support levels:



101.75



101.45



101


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com


For more info: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014


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domenica 23 marzo 2014

Asian Stocks Mostly Higher Ahead Of HSBC Chinese PMI

Asian Stocks Mostly Higher Ahead Of HSBC Chinese PMI





via MarketPulse:



Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index paring last week’s losses, as Japanese markets reopened ahead of a private gauge of factory production in China.


Japan’s Topix (TPX) index gained 1.2 percent after a three-day weekend. Macquarie Group Ltd. gained 3.6 percent as Australia’s biggest investment bank said it expects full-year earnings to rise as much as 45 percent. Yamato Holdings Co., a parcel delivery company, surged 4.9 percent in Tokyo on a report it will form a tie with China Post Group.


The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent to 133.43 as of 9:22 a.m. in Tokyo after declining 1.2 percent last week. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index gained 0.1 percent.


A China purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics is projected to signal a third straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector.


Bloomberg




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Week in FX Asia – Asian Currencies Feel Yellen Effect

Week in FX Asia – Asian Currencies Feel Yellen Effect





via MarketPulse:



The Janet Yellen era at the United States Federal Reserve has officially begun. Her first Federal Open Market Committee was memorable. The actual FOMC statement was what the market has come to expect from central bank communication: Optimistic, but cautious. The expected $10 billion added taper continues the trend set by Bernanke in the December FOMC. What took markets by surprise was Mrs Yellen first post FOMC press conference.


The Fed chair said that the quantitative easing program would could end by fall if the current pace continues to be constant and rates could be higher six months after that. Nowhere in the FOMC statement did that timeline appear. In fact the actual release foresaw low rates for “considerable time”. Yellen surprised by giving a closer date that most analyst expected given other Fed members previous statements.


What begun last summer with another apparent off script comment from Ben Bernanke regarding tapering seems to be moving forward. The era of record low rates around the world seems to be over. Emerging markets were particularly hard-hit by the tapering announcement. This time around the USD has made big gains against all currencies across the board.


The Japanese yen was feeling the pressure of higher demand for the currency which made it strengthen against the USD. This is not beneficial for Prime Minister Abe’s plans to stimulate Japan’s economic growth. A strong yen would make it harder to turn around an export led economy. Following Yellen’s comments the JPY broke through the 102 line which should give a breather to the Bank of Japan. Governor Kuroda is set to speak in London on Saturday and some of his comments will probably discuss the current state of the currency.


The CNY is under pressure from global growth expectations. Major investment banks have downgraded their forecasts of Chinese GDP. Rumours that have started to solidify around a real estate developer bankruptcy has capped the stock markets. The extra 1% added to the CNY trading band to expand it to 2% has helped the currency have extra flexibility that traders have used to reduced their holdings.


The INR dropped a two month low after the Fed hinted rates could go higher as soon as next spring but quickly recovered and is now trading above the week’s open. Global macroeconomic trends have put pressure on the Indian economy as there are still question marks around the political landscape as the country gears up for elections. The INR has showed resilience after last summer’s tapering announcement and has managed to reassure investors as one of the more solid markets in the BRIC and other emerging markets.













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WEEK AHEAD


* GBP Consumer Price Index

* USD Durable Goods Orders

* JPY National Consumer Price Index

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* GBP UK Gross Domestic Product



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venerdì 21 marzo 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014



Show full picture Overview:The USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Liquidity was thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan were shut for holiday. The USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.18 versus 80.01 early Thursday) after the Federal Reserve officials shifted forward their forecast for higher rates and Philadelphia Fed’s index of general business activity rose stronger than expected to plus 9.0 in March (versus 4.3 forecast) from minus 6.3 in February, while the U.S Conference Board leading index rose more-than-expected 0.5% (versus +0.3% forecast) in February. The USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk…



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Overview:
The USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Liquidity was thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan were shut for holiday. The USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.18 versus 80.01 early Thursday) after the Federal Reserve officials shifted forward their forecast for higher rates and Philadelphia Fed’s index of general business activity rose stronger than expected to plus 9.0 in March (versus 4.3 forecast) from minus 6.3 in February, while the U.S Conference Board leading index rose more-than-expected 0.5% (versus +0.3% forecast) in February. The USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 3.97% to 14.52; S&P rose 0.6% overnight) on upbeat U.S. data and calmer investor nerves post-FOMC, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and sell-yen orders from Japan importers. But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan exporters and positions’ adjustment before the weekend.


Technical сomment:


The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from oversold zone, the MACD is staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average and rate-of-change momentum indicator is advancing in positive territory.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.85 and the second target at 103.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.20. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 100.64. The pivot point is at 101.75.


Resistance levels:


102.85


103.15


103.45


Support levels:


101.20


100.65


100.35


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com


For more info: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014


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sabato 15 febbraio 2014

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 14, 2014

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 14, 2014



Show full picture Overview: USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment and franc demand on the buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on the soft EUR/CHF cross. But the USD/CHF losses are tempered by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics are turning bearish. Trading recommendation: The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8995. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.902. The pivot point stands at 0.8955. In case the price moves in the…



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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment and franc demand on the buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on the soft EUR/CHF cross. But the USD/CHF losses are tempered by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics are turning bearish.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8995. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.902. The pivot point stands at 0.8955. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8995 and the second target at 0.902.


Resistance levels:


0.8995


0.902


0.904


Support levels:


0.89


0.888


0.8855


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com


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lunedì 10 febbraio 2014

ZIFX.com Daily Forecast Monday, 10 February 2014 – 5:00 AM GMT

ZIFX.com Daily Forecast Monday, 10 February 2014 – 5:00 AM GMT



Page top© 2002 – 2014 ZIFX.com All rights reserved | TermsAbout us FAQ Why Lose Testimonials Education Inspiring Quotes Services Forecast Forecast Plus Comparison Our Fees Payments Order Examples Forecasts Signals Signals Demo Links Forex Books Forex Brokers Currency Tools Link to us Site map Home Benefits Affiliates Analyses Performance Order Contact us



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Monday, 10 February 2014 – 5:00 AM GMT















































































zifx usd result performance order jpy forex forecast document currency analyses trading
EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3605 – 1.3685
Buy at 1.3619 SL 1.3587 TP 1.3671
USD/JPY
Trading range: 102.60 – 101.85
Sell at 102.47 SL 102.79 TP 101.98
GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.6440 – 1.6360
Sell at 1.6428 SL 1.6460 TP 1.6370
USD/CHF
Trading range: 0.9005 – 0.8935
Sell at 0.8995 SL 0.9027 TP 0.8941
The current support/resistance levels are:
EUR/USD 1.3558, 1.3538, 1.3506 – 1.3680, 1.3700, 1.3732
USD/JPY 101.86, 101.65, 101.31 – 103.08, 103.29, 103.63
GBP/USD 1.6358, 1.6336, 1.6300 – 1.6498, 1.6520, 1.6556
USD/CHF 0.8930, 0.8909, 0.8876 – 0.8996, 0.9017, 0.9050



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ZIFX.com Daily Forecast Monday, 10 February 2014 – 5:00 AM GMT


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domenica 9 febbraio 2014

Asian Equities Higher after U.S. Lead

Asian Equities Higher after U.S. Lead





via MarketPulse:



Asian stock markets rose on Monday following last week’s rally on Wall Street, as investors brushed off a worse-than-expected U.S. jobs report.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posting their best two-day gains in four months despite January’s weak non-farm payrolls report. 113,000 jobs were created last month, well below estimates of 185,000, while the jobless rate fell to 6.6 percent versus expectations of 6.7 percent.


“The Fed is not likely to consider the non-farm payrolls report solely in its decision without due regard to the range of labor market indicators available, and in that context things are looking stable,” wrote analysts at Mizuho Bank in a morning note.


CNBC


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Week in FX Asia – Reserve Bank of Australia Hold Rate and Moves to Neutral

Week in FX Asia – Reserve Bank of Australia Hold Rate and Moves to Neutral





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Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates and Changes Stance to Neutral


On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, where it has been pegged since August. This didn’t grab much attention from the markets, but the Rate Statement did. Governor Glenn Stevens noted that interest rates are at an appropriate level, indicating a shift from easing to a neutral stance. He also made a point of noting the Australian dollar’s strong decline, stating that it will “assist in achieving balanced growth” for the Australian economy. Stevens refrained from saying that the Australian dollar was “uncomfortably high” as he has done in the past. The RBA has room to be pleased, as the Aussie has shed 8% of its value in the past three months.


Abenomics Was Praised For its Effect on the Yen Now Catches Blame for Lower Stock Market

The Nikkei Index did not escape the global stock market slowdown. It is down 1 percent in a week that had the European Central Bank and the Bank of England hold rates and disappointing earning in the US. The most anticipated event of the week was the US jobs report which came in at 113,000 new jobs in January. The number was below expectation of around 180,000 which made the JPY strengthen versus the dollar deflating one of Shinzo Abe’s ongoing victory of a weak currency. The markets continue to question Abe’s ability to deliver arrows number two and three in his three arrow strategy. The first arrow launched a monetary policy stimulus that so far has been successful in driving the stock market higher and the Yen lower. This has benefit the inflation numbers which for the first time in decades have posted consecutive positive numbers escaping deflation.


This week several analyst and managers have forecasted trouble ahead for Abe’s Japan if the government spending continues without any deep reforms. Labour, fiscal and trade reforms are on the agenda, but so far Abe has only promised changes and failed to deliver them. The second and third arrows depend on Abe taking a hard stance to push through the unpopular reforms. He has tried to sweeten the labor changes with again a promise to raise wages. Industry groups have agreed in principle to those raises, but only after Abe delivers the reforms.


China returns from Lunar Year Holiday to Slowing PMIs

The Chinese Yuan gained versus the US dollar over 2 percent in 2013. The government’s mission to increase CNY convertibility and liquidity paid off when the BIS triennial survey welcomed the currency to the top 10 most traded globally. This Friday marked the end of the Lunar Year holiday and disappointing reports awaited Chinese traders. The official purchasing manager index fell to 50.5. Still above the expansionary measure of 50, but below the January reading of 51. China’s services sector also showed a slowdown this week. The HSBC/Markit Services PMI showed a fall as the index is 50.7 in January versus December’s 50.9













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WEEK AHEAD


* GBP Bank of England Inflation Report

* AUD Employment Change

* USD Advance Retail Sales

* CNY Consumer Price Index

* EUR French Gross Domestic Product

* EUR German Gross Domestic Product

* USD U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence



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