Week In FX Americas – Forex A Yawn, Gold In Demand

via MarketPulse:

The forex market is ending Friday confined to a tight range (EUR has traded 14bps in North America) which is not surprising for a week that happened to print the lowest major currency volatility in seven-years.

The market is already looking forward to Monday’s European economic outlook. Setting Russia/Ukraine aside, there is only second tier data from Germany (import prices) and Italy (consumer confidence) to keep anyone interested. There is however a plethora of ECB speakers – Draghi in Bonn, while Constancio, Coeure and Praet speak in Frankfurt. The market should expect them all to tow the party line – expect talk on the outlook for policy as well as their preparedness to act now.

If one includes Russia and Ukraine into the equation, then it’s gold that should catch your attention. Currently, the yellow metal is enjoying a safe-haven bid on concerns about Russian troop movements near Ukraine. Gold is currently trading north of the psychological $1,300 print. Up until now, investors had being discounting tensions in the Ukraine and focusing on better US data to push gold prices down almost -7% from last months high.

Does the metal have the stamina to go much higher? To some the metal’s topside is limited due to the belief that there is little chance of the conflict spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders. However, do not expect to many investors to begin offloading the commodity into the weekend due to event risk – no one wants to be caught offside if something untoward does happens to occur over the weekend. Market expects resistance at $1,308-10 and $1,317. Gold’s 60-day midrange is $1,315.

• Gold Rises as Ukrainian Cease Fire Ends


• Oil Drops Before Inventories are Expected to Rise


• Obama Reaffirms Japan Commitment During Visit


• Canadian Retail Sales Rise in February


• US Mortgage Applications Fall


• US Home Sales Drop in March


• US PMI Comes Slightly Under Expectations


• Four Experts Analyze the Impact of TPP


• US Vice President Offers Help to Ukraine Warns About Corruption


• US Fed Study Shows Unemployment Rate Still Good Indicator


• US House Sales Drop To 1 Year Low


• U.S. Dollar Holds Near Two Week High


• Japan-US To Resume TPP Talks Tuesday


• US Vice President Arrives in Ukraine

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Gross Domestic Product

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* USD Consumer Confidence

* EUR German Unemployment Rate

* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

* CAD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

* USD ISM Manufacturing

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

* USD Unemployment Rate

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014

Show full picture Overview: USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed’s Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week’s Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank’s policy, and that he was “a bit surprised” by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U…

via Forex analysis review:

Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed’s Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week’s Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank’s policy, and that he was “a bit surprised” by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U.S. January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index post a smaller-than-expected 13.2% on-year increase (versus +13.5% forecast), Richmond Fed’s manufacturing current business conditions index fell to -7 in March, its lowest since July 2013, from -6 in February; while U.S. February new home sales fell bigger-than-expected 3.3% to 440,000 (versus 445,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and weaker USD demand on diminished expectations for earlier rate rise.

Technical сomment:


Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode; but stochastics is neutral, 15-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 102.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 102.

Resistance levels:



102.65



102.85



103.15

Support levels:



101.75



101.45



101

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014

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Week in FX Americas – Qualitative Guidance And Yellen Drive USD Upwards

via MarketPulse:

The USD finished the week ahead of all major currencies. Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee and the following press conference with Janet Yellen were the main highlights. This was the first FOMC meeting of the Yellen era and it did not disappoint. The actual FOMC statement had all the expected language and it came with the forecasted $10 billion in further reduction to the stimulus program. There was a break away from the Bernanke era focus on the unemployment rate. Yellen put to a vote the fact that the Fed should move away from the single reading which does not take into account several factors. The Fed would now base its decision on several factors and take inflation into account.

This is nothing new as it is the job of central banks and not a single reading to base their monetary policy on. This was in fact part of the pro-transparency move by Bernanke where he was trying to look for a single reading that could signal to the market an imminent rate hike. Now that the reading is close to hitting the mark the fact that the economy might not be ready comes to the front. Yellen is changing the guidance form a simplified version to one that is more complex and gives the Fed more leeway.

Then what was considered by some to be a “rookie” mistake when asked about a potential timeline for the end of tapering and the beginning of a rate hike cycle she answered: “six months”. That means that if the current tapering pace continues the process would have done away with stimulus by fall of this year. A hike in spring of 2015 would then happen according to the Fed chair’s words.

The Fed members complained openly to reporters when last summer Ben Bernanke introduced the concept of tapering spooking the emerging markets into year lows. The market deemed to be overreacting to the then Fed Chair statement. Now more than 8 months away the same mistake seems to have happened. The USD has given up most of its strength as the economic indicators do not reinforce a scenario where the economy is healthy enough to do away with low rates.

Yellen and company left plenty of room in their FOMC announced new guidance to avoid the Bernanke 6.5% unemployment trap.

The Bank of Canada was part of this week’s ill advised statements. Governor Stephen Poloz had the tough job of following now BoE Governor Mark Carney as head of the BoC. Poloz’s comments about the economy slowing down and needing a rate cut made the CAD lose 0.7 percent and this is ahead of a pro rate hike Fed statement that made the loonie lose an additional 0.9 percent.

Economic figures contradicted Governor Poloz as inflation posted a healthy 1.1 percent in February and retail sales had a similar 1.3 percent increase beating the forecasts. The CAD recovered some of the lost ground versus the USD on the back of positive indicators.

• Yellen’s First FOMC Does Away With Employment Gauge Boosts USD


• Central Bank Statements Not Actions Drive Loonie Lower


• US Increases Russian Sanction List Issues Warning


• US AAA Rating Affirmed By Fitch On Debt Deal


• US Banks May Lose Up To $501 Billion In Fed’s Stress Test


• US Fed Releases Bank Stress Tests


• US Announces Further Russian Sanctions


• US Fed Will Release Bank Stress Test Results Today


• US Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Expected


• US Fed to Shift To Qualitative Guidance


• Cuba Gears Up for Currency Unification


• Yellen’s US Fed First FOMC To Set Tone

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Consumer Price Index

* USD Durable Goods Orders

* JPY National Consumer Price Index

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* GBP UK Gross Domestic Product

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Natural Gas – Bearish Breakout Seen On Both S/T and L/T Chart

via MarketPulse:

Natural Gas prices continue to push lower as spring blooms. The lack of strong economic sanctions by Euro zone on Russia over the Crimea secession also means that Nat Gas supplies from Ukraine and Russia continue to flow freely, and there is no panic in the market to buy and stock inventories in case there is a supply crunch. The combination of both factors allowed Nat Gas to hit a recent low of 4.47, ignoring the bullish inventory numbers reflected by EIA weekly report which came in at -59B vs expected -48B cubic feet. This is a clear sign that market is extremely bearish and further selling activities should be expected moving forward.

Hourly Chart

From a technical perspective, the break of 4.525 support and Channel Bottom suggest that bearish momentum may be accelerating. This also allow us to ignore the bullish cycle signal seen on Stochastic indicator as such indicator tend to be unreliable during strong trends such as now.

Daily Chart

The same could be said about Stochastic indicator on the Daily Chart, which is within the Oversold region, but just like the hourly chart, bearish momentum is strong and bullish momentum is heavily impaired with the rising trendline broken. Furthermore, the Double Top pattern is currently in play, suggesting that the ultimate bearish objective may be as low as 3.32. Hence, just because Stochastic readings are Oversold does not mean that bearish momentum is over, and even though a bullish pullback is favored moving forward, we could still see prices at least moving further lower within the mid Dec – mid Jan consolidation range before a pullback is seen.

More Links:

USD/JPY – Dollar Spanks Yen After Yellen Rate Comments

EUR/USD – Euro Slide Continues After Yellen Remarks

AUD/USD – US Dollar Surges After Fed Remarks

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 14, 2014

Show full picture After the breakout above 1.6600 took place, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped within a consolidation zone located between 1.6600 and 1.6800. The bulls found 1.6600 as a prominent support to concentrate around. That’s why a recent bottom was established there on the last visit on February 24. Price level of 1.6820 remains the highest level so far. A breakout above this level will allow a quick bullish swing to be initiated towards 1.6870, then possibly towards 1.7000 which are prominent tops on the weekly chart. Price zone of 1.6740-1.6700 (61.8% – 50% Fibonacci levels) remains the most prominent resistance zone on the 4H chart. This zone applied a considerable bearish pressure that lead to an obvious bearish daily candlestick. Price level 1.6600 corresponds to the neckline of a possible Double Top reversal…

via Forex analysis review:

After the breakout above 1.6600 took place, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped within a consolidation zone located between 1.6600 and 1.6800.

The bulls found 1.6600 as a prominent support to concentrate around. That’s why a recent bottom was established there on the last visit on February 24.

Price level of 1.6820 remains the highest level so far. A breakout above this level will allow a quick bullish swing to be initiated towards 1.6870, then possibly towards 1.7000 which are prominent tops on the weekly chart.

Price zone of 1.6740-1.6700 (61.8% – 50% Fibonacci levels) remains the most prominent resistance zone on the 4H chart. This zone applied a considerable bearish pressure that lead to an obvious bearish daily candlestick.

Price level 1.6600 corresponds to the neckline of a possible Double Top reversal pattern being established around 1.6450 (61.8% Fibonacci).

Confirmation of this pattern needs 4H fixation below 1.6600-1.6580 which leads directly to projection target located at 1.6440.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Putin Warns Against Counterproductive Sanctions

via MarketPulse:

Stock markets extended gains on Tuesday afternoon, continuing to bounce back from a heavy bout of selling, as Russian President Vladimir Putin quelled fears of immediate conflict in Ukraine.

Putin, speaking at a press conference in Moscow on Tuesday, said there was “no need yet” for Russia to exercise its authority, adding that he was not considering the annexation of Crimea and any force used would be a last resort. He also directly addressed Monday’s heavy selling in stock markets saying that the move would only be “temporary.”

Russia’s MICEX Index pushed higher on Tuesday, surging over 5 percent, having lost nearly $60 billion in market capitalization on Monday, ending the session down 11 percent – its worst fall in five years.

via CNBC

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 28, 2014

Show full picture Overview: USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment, flows to haven CHF amid tensions in Ukraine and franc demand on rebounding CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. But CHF sentiment are dented by weaker-than-expected Switzerland 4Q GDP growth of +1.7% on-year (versus forecast +2.1%). USD/CHF downside is also limited by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bullish at oversold zone, but MACD is still in bearish mode, five-day moving average is meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday. Trading recommendation: The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a…

via Forex analysis review:

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment, flows to haven CHF amid tensions in Ukraine and franc demand on rebounding CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. But CHF sentiment are dented by weaker-than-expected Switzerland 4Q GDP growth of +1.7% on-year (versus forecast +2.1%). USD/CHF downside is also limited by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bullish at oversold zone, but MACD is still in bearish mode, five-day moving average is meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8790. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8770. The pivot point stands at 0.8855. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8875 and the second target at 0.8910.

Resistance levels:



0.8875



0.8910



0.8935

Support levels:



0.8790



0.8770



0.8750

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Week In FX Americas – Weather Again Blamed For US Softening

via MarketPulse:

This week, Ms. Yellen came spoke and did not disappoint anyone – handover from one Fed head to another completed. For the time being the US Fed game plan is to follow the “Bernanke way. However, some recent disappointing reports have a few analysts rethinking the depth of their bullishness for the US economy. On Thursday, US January retail sales slipped lower (-0.4%), m/m; well below expectations and adding insult was the December result being also revised into negative territory.

The headline print was the steepest one-month decline in 18-months for sales. Ex-autos, January sales were flat, while core-sales (ex-autos, gas and building materials) came in down -0.3%, having been expected up +0.2%. The reason for the slip: icy weather. The biggest burden on the report was sagging auto sales, which was abundantly clear in US January sales numbers out of the major auto manufacturers last week. Add the weather-impacted report to the miss in the January PMI manufacturing and the monthly job numbers, is reason enough to consider revising US growth rates. Many analysts are beginning to cut US Q4 and Q1 growth forecasts given the recent multitude of disappointing data – Q1 is tracking at +0.9% vs. +1.9% while Q4 is pared to +2.5% from +2.8%.

The US economy is the “beacon for capital markets.” However, the present global economic recovery has currently six “unusual” characteristics, which distinguishes it from recoveries of the past and is altering the strength of “the” recovery. This will obviously have a knock on effect on financial markets and monetary policies – indictors that need to be taken into consideration when looking at the “big” picture.

• Global trade continues to lag

• Credit is not picking up and continues to languish

• Long-term interest rates are not rallying – a flatter US yield curve

• Inflation is benign or continues to fall – Euro-zone is concerned about deflation

• Commodity prices remain on the “back-foot”

• Finally, when considering US employment, notice the participation rate – it continues to decline – not a good sign

One needs to be looking beyond weather to grasp a clearer picture. The lack of volatility in forex can be blamed on G10 monetary policy – with the lack of deviation in interest rates, central bank rhetoric is doing most of the currency price guidance for now.

• U.S. Dollar Heading for Poor Week


• Markets Warm to Canada’s Plan for 2015 Surplus


• Fed’s Yellen Is a Structural Dove Unlike Bernanke


• US Jobless Rose by 8K Above Forecast


• US Retail Sales Falls in January


• US Senate Votes To Avoid Debt Default


• Fed’s Bullard: Fed will be cautious if changes to taper pace needed


• US Senate Clears Debt-Limit Extension Bill


• Feds Lacker Says New Laws Need for Too-Big-To-Fail Banks


• U.S. House Agrees to Suspend Debt Ceiling


• Mexican FinMin Says 5 Percent Growth Attainable


• Yellen Says Market Far From Recovered Low Rates to Remain


• Yellen Expected to Face Tough Questions


• Yellen Says Fed To Keep Tapering


• Gold Rises On Yellen’s Pledge To Continue Tapering


• Lawmakers Plan To Raise Debt Limit With 12th Feb Vote


• Canada: “Inevitable” That Keystone XL Pipeline Will Happen


• Mexico Expected To Continually Grow 5% ‘For Decades’

WEEK AHEAD

* JPY Gross Domestic Product

* GBP Consumer Price Index

* EUR German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment

* USD Consumer Price Index

* CAD Consumer Price Index

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