Week In FX Americas – Forex A Yawn, Gold In Demand

via MarketPulse:

The forex market is ending Friday confined to a tight range (EUR has traded 14bps in North America) which is not surprising for a week that happened to print the lowest major currency volatility in seven-years.

The market is already looking forward to Monday’s European economic outlook. Setting Russia/Ukraine aside, there is only second tier data from Germany (import prices) and Italy (consumer confidence) to keep anyone interested. There is however a plethora of ECB speakers – Draghi in Bonn, while Constancio, Coeure and Praet speak in Frankfurt. The market should expect them all to tow the party line – expect talk on the outlook for policy as well as their preparedness to act now.

If one includes Russia and Ukraine into the equation, then it’s gold that should catch your attention. Currently, the yellow metal is enjoying a safe-haven bid on concerns about Russian troop movements near Ukraine. Gold is currently trading north of the psychological $1,300 print. Up until now, investors had being discounting tensions in the Ukraine and focusing on better US data to push gold prices down almost -7% from last months high.

Does the metal have the stamina to go much higher? To some the metal’s topside is limited due to the belief that there is little chance of the conflict spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders. However, do not expect to many investors to begin offloading the commodity into the weekend due to event risk – no one wants to be caught offside if something untoward does happens to occur over the weekend. Market expects resistance at $1,308-10 and $1,317. Gold’s 60-day midrange is $1,315.

• Gold Rises as Ukrainian Cease Fire Ends


• Oil Drops Before Inventories are Expected to Rise


• Obama Reaffirms Japan Commitment During Visit


• Canadian Retail Sales Rise in February


• US Mortgage Applications Fall


• US Home Sales Drop in March


• US PMI Comes Slightly Under Expectations


• Four Experts Analyze the Impact of TPP


• US Vice President Offers Help to Ukraine Warns About Corruption


• US Fed Study Shows Unemployment Rate Still Good Indicator


• US House Sales Drop To 1 Year Low


• U.S. Dollar Holds Near Two Week High


• Japan-US To Resume TPP Talks Tuesday


• US Vice President Arrives in Ukraine

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Gross Domestic Product

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* USD Consumer Confidence

* EUR German Unemployment Rate

* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

* CAD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

* USD ISM Manufacturing

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

* USD Unemployment Rate

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 28, 2014

Show full picture Overview: USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the dovish Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy stance, positive dollar sentiment, and franc sales on the buoyant GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, and CAD/CHF crosses. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing. Trading recommendation: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point…

via Forex analysis review:

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the dovish Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy stance, positive dollar sentiment, and franc sales on the buoyant GBP/CHF, AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF, and CAD/CHF crosses. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8910 and the second target at 0.8930. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8810. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8785. The pivot point is at 0.8835.

Resistance levels:



0.8910



0.8930



0.8960

Support levels:



0.8810



0.8785



0.8765

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 28, 2014

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Week in FX Americas – Qualitative Guidance And Yellen Drive USD Upwards

via MarketPulse:

The USD finished the week ahead of all major currencies. Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee and the following press conference with Janet Yellen were the main highlights. This was the first FOMC meeting of the Yellen era and it did not disappoint. The actual FOMC statement had all the expected language and it came with the forecasted $10 billion in further reduction to the stimulus program. There was a break away from the Bernanke era focus on the unemployment rate. Yellen put to a vote the fact that the Fed should move away from the single reading which does not take into account several factors. The Fed would now base its decision on several factors and take inflation into account.

This is nothing new as it is the job of central banks and not a single reading to base their monetary policy on. This was in fact part of the pro-transparency move by Bernanke where he was trying to look for a single reading that could signal to the market an imminent rate hike. Now that the reading is close to hitting the mark the fact that the economy might not be ready comes to the front. Yellen is changing the guidance form a simplified version to one that is more complex and gives the Fed more leeway.

Then what was considered by some to be a “rookie” mistake when asked about a potential timeline for the end of tapering and the beginning of a rate hike cycle she answered: “six months”. That means that if the current tapering pace continues the process would have done away with stimulus by fall of this year. A hike in spring of 2015 would then happen according to the Fed chair’s words.

The Fed members complained openly to reporters when last summer Ben Bernanke introduced the concept of tapering spooking the emerging markets into year lows. The market deemed to be overreacting to the then Fed Chair statement. Now more than 8 months away the same mistake seems to have happened. The USD has given up most of its strength as the economic indicators do not reinforce a scenario where the economy is healthy enough to do away with low rates.

Yellen and company left plenty of room in their FOMC announced new guidance to avoid the Bernanke 6.5% unemployment trap.

The Bank of Canada was part of this week’s ill advised statements. Governor Stephen Poloz had the tough job of following now BoE Governor Mark Carney as head of the BoC. Poloz’s comments about the economy slowing down and needing a rate cut made the CAD lose 0.7 percent and this is ahead of a pro rate hike Fed statement that made the loonie lose an additional 0.9 percent.

Economic figures contradicted Governor Poloz as inflation posted a healthy 1.1 percent in February and retail sales had a similar 1.3 percent increase beating the forecasts. The CAD recovered some of the lost ground versus the USD on the back of positive indicators.

• Yellen’s First FOMC Does Away With Employment Gauge Boosts USD


• Central Bank Statements Not Actions Drive Loonie Lower


• US Increases Russian Sanction List Issues Warning


• US AAA Rating Affirmed By Fitch On Debt Deal


• US Banks May Lose Up To $501 Billion In Fed’s Stress Test


• US Fed Releases Bank Stress Tests


• US Announces Further Russian Sanctions


• US Fed Will Release Bank Stress Test Results Today


• US Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Expected


• US Fed to Shift To Qualitative Guidance


• Cuba Gears Up for Currency Unification


• Yellen’s US Fed First FOMC To Set Tone

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Consumer Price Index

* USD Durable Goods Orders

* JPY National Consumer Price Index

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* GBP UK Gross Domestic Product

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Week In FX Americas – Weather Again Blamed For US Softening

via MarketPulse:

This week, Ms. Yellen came spoke and did not disappoint anyone – handover from one Fed head to another completed. For the time being the US Fed game plan is to follow the “Bernanke way. However, some recent disappointing reports have a few analysts rethinking the depth of their bullishness for the US economy. On Thursday, US January retail sales slipped lower (-0.4%), m/m; well below expectations and adding insult was the December result being also revised into negative territory.

The headline print was the steepest one-month decline in 18-months for sales. Ex-autos, January sales were flat, while core-sales (ex-autos, gas and building materials) came in down -0.3%, having been expected up +0.2%. The reason for the slip: icy weather. The biggest burden on the report was sagging auto sales, which was abundantly clear in US January sales numbers out of the major auto manufacturers last week. Add the weather-impacted report to the miss in the January PMI manufacturing and the monthly job numbers, is reason enough to consider revising US growth rates. Many analysts are beginning to cut US Q4 and Q1 growth forecasts given the recent multitude of disappointing data – Q1 is tracking at +0.9% vs. +1.9% while Q4 is pared to +2.5% from +2.8%.

The US economy is the “beacon for capital markets.” However, the present global economic recovery has currently six “unusual” characteristics, which distinguishes it from recoveries of the past and is altering the strength of “the” recovery. This will obviously have a knock on effect on financial markets and monetary policies – indictors that need to be taken into consideration when looking at the “big” picture.

• Global trade continues to lag

• Credit is not picking up and continues to languish

• Long-term interest rates are not rallying – a flatter US yield curve

• Inflation is benign or continues to fall – Euro-zone is concerned about deflation

• Commodity prices remain on the “back-foot”

• Finally, when considering US employment, notice the participation rate – it continues to decline – not a good sign

One needs to be looking beyond weather to grasp a clearer picture. The lack of volatility in forex can be blamed on G10 monetary policy – with the lack of deviation in interest rates, central bank rhetoric is doing most of the currency price guidance for now.

• U.S. Dollar Heading for Poor Week


• Markets Warm to Canada’s Plan for 2015 Surplus


• Fed’s Yellen Is a Structural Dove Unlike Bernanke


• US Jobless Rose by 8K Above Forecast


• US Retail Sales Falls in January


• US Senate Votes To Avoid Debt Default


• Fed’s Bullard: Fed will be cautious if changes to taper pace needed


• US Senate Clears Debt-Limit Extension Bill


• Feds Lacker Says New Laws Need for Too-Big-To-Fail Banks


• U.S. House Agrees to Suspend Debt Ceiling


• Mexican FinMin Says 5 Percent Growth Attainable


• Yellen Says Market Far From Recovered Low Rates to Remain


• Yellen Expected to Face Tough Questions


• Yellen Says Fed To Keep Tapering


• Gold Rises On Yellen’s Pledge To Continue Tapering


• Lawmakers Plan To Raise Debt Limit With 12th Feb Vote


• Canada: “Inevitable” That Keystone XL Pipeline Will Happen


• Mexico Expected To Continually Grow 5% ‘For Decades’

WEEK AHEAD

* JPY Gross Domestic Product

* GBP Consumer Price Index

* EUR German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment

* USD Consumer Price Index

* CAD Consumer Price Index

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Week in FX Americas – Loonies Reprieve From Jobs Data

via MarketPulse:

Canada’s labor force survey headline looked solid on Friday, however, on drilling down it was weak in the details. Canada added more jobs than expected last month, fueled by full-time hires; it was able to drive the unemployment rate down to +7% from +7.2%.

The economy added +29.4k new jobs in January, rallying back from December’s bleak report that logged a loss of -44k positions. Breaking the numbers down further, there were a total of +50.5k full-time positions created, while -21.1k part-time jobs were lost. More importantly, and certainly a concern to Canadian policy makers, is that domestic job growth was driven mostly by the self-employed category, +28.3k to be precise. The number of paid jobs only grew a paltry +1k. Employment creation last year was the worst in four-years (+0.8% or +146k). This “distorted” monthly labor gain was able to push the unemployment rate down two ticks to +7%. This happens to be the same level as 12-months ago, which suggests that the current job growth rate is ticking over just enough to keep up with the labor force population growth.

What about the Loonie? The initial market reaction saw the CAD gather strength and trade below the psychological $1.10 handle briefly. There it seemed to have run into a brick wall of dollar buying for now. The techies would have us believe that loonie was in danger of entering oversold territory on the week. The loonies immediate reaction to a somewhat mixed jobs report would certainly back that. The CAD needs to penetrate the 1.0975 with gusto to maintain a bullish sentiment; conversely trading through its pre-job opening level 1.1075 would be dragging it back into bear territory, opening up an attack to contest USD/CAD yearly highs.

• Dallas Fed President Agrees Tapering is Right Course


• US Debt Ceiling Debates Could Continue Until End of Month


• US Job Growth Remains Weak


• NFP Less Than Forecast; Jobless Rate Falls


• Recovery? More US Employers Want To Slash Workers


• Canada’s Trade Deficit Exceeds Forecasts


• Fed May Revise Forward Guidance


• US Services Grow in January


• US Debt Limit Won’t Affect Rating Says Moodys


• Oil Rises As Cold Weather Seen Affecting Stockpiles


• US Stocks Could Fall 20% Says Asianomics Director


• US Debt Interest Will Reach $223 Billion This Year


• U.S. Deficit Continues to Decline


• US Yields Falling Following Weakest ISM Manufacturing Since June


• US Stocks Suffer Worst Sell Off Since June


• U.S. Congress Urged to Act on Debt


• IMF: Canada may have to Reconsider Budget Plan


• Gold Rises Thanks to Safe Haven Appeal


• US Treasurer Warns Debt Ceiling Will Be Hit Very Soon


• Bernanke To Join Washington DC Think Tank


• Janet Yellen Sworn in As Federal Reserve’s Chair


• Canada Gains 29,400 Jobs in January

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Bank of England Inflation Report

* AUD Employment Change

* USD Advance Retail Sales

* CNY Consumer Price Index

* EUR French Gross Domestic Product

* EUR German Gross Domestic Product

* USD U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence

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Week In FX Americas – Loonie Woes Continue Despite Growth

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Canada’s November’s growth number on Friday hit expectations of a +0.2% monthly gain. On the face of it all looked fine, however, the sub-indices happened to push the CAD to a new intraday low. The energy sector reported its usual strength, but both the manufacturing and agriculture categories declined and pushed the loonie through the psychological 1.12 handle for the first time in five years.

Will the monthly growth headline be enough to suppress the idea that Governor Poloz at the Bank of Canada is contemplating a rate cut to promote economic growth? The BoC has made its next monetary choice explicitly data dependent and a growth print like this would suggest a hike rather than an ease in monetary policy. The weak is doing the BoC work, as the underperforming currency will eventually push the country’s tepid inflation rate higher.

Certainly not helping policy makers in the relative weak jobs situation. StatsCan reported earlier this month that Canada lost -46k jobs in December, pushing the unemployment rate to +7.2%. New data this week revealed that Canada lost -27.6k jobs in November rather than the reported gain of +21k in their highly coveted ‘labor market report.’ The new data – based on a census of Canada Revenue Agency data and a survey of 15,000 employers — is considered by economists to be more reliable, but not reported on as heavily as the touted labor report. Despite the reports long-term trends remaining the same will the revision shown up next week and cause more problems for the loonie?

The loonie is closing out the week on the front foot, mostly on the back of month end-demand. Earlier, the CAD had taken a beating from the dollar bulls who used GDP as an excuse to push their way through option barriers at 1.12 and weak stops in the high twenty’s. The commodity sensitive currency continues to remain vulnerable, lobbed into the underperforming commodity basket that has been hurt by China’s questionable growth potential. Dollar buyers lurk on on all CAD rallies.

U.S. Posts Solid GDP

U.S. Dollar at One Week High after GDP

U.S. Dollar Higher before Spending Data

U.S. Dollar at One Week High on Expectations

What Happens in EM Stays in EM Says Goldman

World Stocks Continue Sell Off After Fed Increases Tapering

Don’t Let The Unanimous Vote Fool You. Fed Remains Heavily Divided.

Fed United in Taper Decision

Bernanke’s Actions Likely to be a ‘Once Off’

U.S. Dollar Remains Steady Against Most after Fed Taper

TSX Lower after Fed Taper Decision

US Fed Tapers by QE Another $10 Billion to $65 Billion

Gold Rises on Safe Haven and Fed Anticipation

Paul Ryan Criticizes Obama’s State of the Union

New US Farm Bill Agreement Will Cut Subsidies

Rating the Bernanke Era

U.S. Treasurys End Lower

WEEK AHEAD

* USD ISM Manufacturing

* AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

* NZD Unemployment Rate

* GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

* EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

* CAD Unemployment Rate

* GBP Gross Domestic Product Estimate

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