Oil Rises With Ukraine On the Radar

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West Texas Intermediate crude rebounded from the lowest close in almost three weeks as the U.S. said it will toughen sanctions on Russia, the biggest energy exporter, over the Ukraine crisis. Brent was steady as Libya lifted force majeure at one of its ports.

Futures advanced as much as 0.9 percent in New York. The U.S. will impose new sanctions today on people and companies close to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, President Barack Obama said. Among those that may be targeted are Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of OAO Rosneft, the country’s biggest oil producer, people familiar with developments said. Libya’s National Oil Corp. will lift a suspension of exports at the port of Zueitina, previously under rebel control, from today.

“The price is being supported by uncertainty as to the breadth and impact of sanctions taken against Russia,” Christopher Bellew, a senior broker at Jefferies Bache Ltd. in London, said by e-mail. “Another important consideration is how Russia might retaliate against sanctions.”

WTI for June delivery rose as much as 92 cents to $101.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded for $101.17 at 1:47 p.m. London time. Prices dropped 1.3 percent to $100.60 on April 25, the lowest settlement since April 7. The volume of all futures traded was about 8.5 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for June settlement pared gains of as much as 62 cents to $110.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, trading for $109.62 at 1:49 p.m. London time. The contract closed at $109.58 on April 25, down 0.7 percent, the biggest decline since April 7.

via Bloomberg

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Natural Gas – Bearish Breakout Seen On Both S/T and L/T Chart

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Natural Gas prices continue to push lower as spring blooms. The lack of strong economic sanctions by Euro zone on Russia over the Crimea secession also means that Nat Gas supplies from Ukraine and Russia continue to flow freely, and there is no panic in the market to buy and stock inventories in case there is a supply crunch. The combination of both factors allowed Nat Gas to hit a recent low of 4.47, ignoring the bullish inventory numbers reflected by EIA weekly report which came in at -59B vs expected -48B cubic feet. This is a clear sign that market is extremely bearish and further selling activities should be expected moving forward.

Hourly Chart

From a technical perspective, the break of 4.525 support and Channel Bottom suggest that bearish momentum may be accelerating. This also allow us to ignore the bullish cycle signal seen on Stochastic indicator as such indicator tend to be unreliable during strong trends such as now.

Daily Chart

The same could be said about Stochastic indicator on the Daily Chart, which is within the Oversold region, but just like the hourly chart, bearish momentum is strong and bullish momentum is heavily impaired with the rising trendline broken. Furthermore, the Double Top pattern is currently in play, suggesting that the ultimate bearish objective may be as low as 3.32. Hence, just because Stochastic readings are Oversold does not mean that bearish momentum is over, and even though a bullish pullback is favored moving forward, we could still see prices at least moving further lower within the mid Dec – mid Jan consolidation range before a pullback is seen.

More Links:

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EUR/USD – Euro Slide Continues After Yellen Remarks

AUD/USD – US Dollar Surges After Fed Remarks

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Oil Falls on China Slowdown Concerns

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West Texas Intermediate’s discount to Brent traded at its narrowest since October, as cold weather and the start of a new pipeline supported U.S. prices, while slowing Chinese economic growth undermined Brent.

WTI was little changed. A winter storm is threatening to drop snow, ice and sleet from Utah to Pennsylvania, including as much as 8 inches (20 centimeters) in New York City. Brent, a global crude benchmark, fell as a Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index in January dropped to a six-month, indicating that government efforts to rein in excessive credit in the world’s second-largest oil consumer will cool growth.

“The Chinese economy is slowing, in line with the new economic policy, adding pressure to most commodities this morning including oil,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London. “The ongoing cold snap” in the U.S. is supporting demand for heating fuel there, he said.

WTI for March delivery was up 15 cents at $97.64 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 12:40 p.m. London time. Brent’s premium to WTI contracts on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was at $8.48 a barrel, the least since Oct. 18 on an intraday basis. The spread settled at $8.91 on Jan. 31.

via Bloomberg

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Japan Leads Asia Decline While Nat Gas Gain On Cold Weather

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Asian stocks dropped as the yen strengthened with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average snapping its longest rally in 4 1/2 years on its first trading day of 2014. Natural gas climbed amid cold weather in the U.S.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4 percent by 9:59 a.m. in Tokyo, as the Nikkei 225 slid 1.6 percent, declining for the first time in 10 trading days. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose 0.1 percent. The yen gained 0.2 percent to 104.64 per dollar after halting a nine-week slump last week, while Australia’s dollar extended its rebound. Gas futures rose 0.7 percent and oil in New York climbed 0.2 percent after sliding last week. Palladium climbed while platinum retreated.

The Nikkei 225 surged 57 percent last year, the best performance among 24 developed markets tracked by Bloomberg as the yen weakened 18 percent, the most since 1979. Services data for nations from China and India to Germany, France and the U.S. are due today. The coldest air in almost 20 years is sweeping over the central U.S. toward the east coast after snow last week fueled power price gains and damaged winter crops.

Bloomberg

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Oil Flat Due to Higher Inventory

via MarketPulse:

West Texas Intermediate traded near the lowest price in almost six months and at the steepest discount to Brent since March, as crude stockpiles rose for a 10th week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Futures were little changed in New York after declining 1.5 percent yesterday, the most in two weeks. Crude inventories climbed by 2.95 million barrels to 391.4 million, the highest level since June, Energy Information Administration data show. Supplies were forecast to increase by 750,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Oil’s moving averages have formed a “death cross,” a bearish technical signal.

via Bloomberg

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WTI Crude Technicals – Bullish Pullback Ahead of Inventory Numbers

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Hourly Chart

WTI prices hit a new 5 month low yesterday after speculators drove USD higher believing that the Fed will taper its current QE program in December. However, this new low is only marginally below the previous low set on 6th Nov, hence we should not read too much into it. Furthermore, the newly formed low did not manage to inspire a “breakout”, with signs of bullish pullback/recovery in play right now.

Stochastic readings are showing a new bullish cycle signal, while price is currently breaking above the soft resistance of 93.65. This suggest that a move towards 94.2 or even higher objectives is possible especially if we see a full bull cycle from Stochastic.

Daily Chart

However, prices remain heavily bearish from the Daily perspective, with yesterday’s decline affirming the 95.0 resistance. Stoch readings are currently within the Oversold region, but there is still some space allowance before a trough is formed looking at previous troughs. Hence, we could still see prices heading lower and tag Channel Bottom before a stronger rebound take place. It should be noted that this outlook does not invalidate short-term bullish momentum. As prices did not manage to tag Channel Bottom earlier, the bearish move is still not over, hence all this means is that short-term bullish recovery may be cut short and reverted lower once again.

Today’s Department of Energy inventory numbers will be yet another potential bearish driver. But last week’s data was actually not as bearish as expected, and there is a chance that the supply/demand conditions will improve once again this week. This notion is agreed by analysts who expect stockpiles to grow by a mere 0.8 million barrels, much lower than the past 7 weeks estimates. Traders will do well to gauge market sentiment by analyzing the post announcement reaction. Should inventory grow higher than expected but WTI prices grow higher, this may imply that market may be pricing in an improving scenario. Conversely, should inventory grow lesser than expected yet prices head lower by the end of the day, we can take it as a sign that market remains heavily bearish – which will drive prices lower for now but a shift in fundamentals may be slowly happening as well, giving us an upside risk in the future.

More Links:
EUR/USD Technicals – 1.345 Resistance Holding Up

Gold Technicals – Moving Closer to 1,250

AUD/USD Technicals – Stoch Divergence Hints Bearish Move

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Week in FX Americas – Price Action Not For Fools Gold

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Gold price action will probably end up being the lead financial story for 2013. This year will close out and end up being the first losing year in thirteen. The price move since US lawmakers struck a deal has not been for the faint of heart, especially those who have been whipped caught short. Commodity participants were caught off-guard by the +$50 dollar rally yesterday that has lost steam again in early $1,320′s. The rally seems counterintuitive to the temporary response deal struck mid-week in Washington or is it?

What’s the requirement for safe haven buying of the yellow metal? Investors are disappointed with the short-term solution. Washington’s deal is again “kicking the can further down the road.” Just like against all major currency pairs, even the Yen, the dollars weakness is the dominating variable that has pushed gold higher. Not helping matters is the ambiguous policy environment. Investors are going to be extra cautious because of the new extended deadline agenda. Nothing has been resolved on the fiscal front and because of this, Fed policy expectations are going to change – taper timing is being pushed further out.

The market was expected to be long, mind you, the lack of Commitment of trader’s report and definitely the price action, would suggest that the market had mostly experienced a short squeeze. Since the initial move there has been very little relief pullback. The weekly bear trend is expected to end today only if the yellow metal can close out the week trading above $1,310.

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WEEK AHEAD

* USD Unemployment Rate

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

* AUD Consumer Prices Index

* GBP Bank of England Minutes

* CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision

* JPY National Consumer Price Index

* GBP Gross Domestic Product

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