Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 1, 2014

Show full picture In March, the failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3880 applied enough bearish pressure on the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700. At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880. On April 11, daily candlestick came as a bearish “Doji” indicating lack of enough bullish momentum above 1.6880. This was followed by bearish engulfing daily candlesticks aiming to apply bearish pressure on price level of 1.3800 which is still offering support so far. At the same time, several bullish attempts (including Tuesday’s bullish spike) took place to step above 1.3850-1.3880. However, immediate bearish reaction is applied resulting in successive reversal daily candlesticks pushing again towards 1.3800. On the other hand, price level of 1.3800 has been providing…

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In March, the failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3880 applied enough bearish pressure on the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.

On April 11, daily candlestick came as a bearish “Doji” indicating lack of enough bullish momentum above 1.6880. This was followed by bearish engulfing daily candlesticks aiming to apply bearish pressure on price level of 1.3800 which is still offering support so far.

At the same time, several bullish attempts (including Tuesday’s bullish spike) took place to step above 1.3850-1.3880. However, immediate bearish reaction is applied resulting in successive reversal daily candlesticks pushing again towards 1.3800.

On the other hand, price level of 1.3800 has been providing bullish support so far. Yesterday’s daily candlestick is another bullish engulfing daily candlestick that originates off this level.

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency until the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3855.

For the bulls, price zone of 1.3810-1.3785 remains the nearest DEMAND zone which provided a valid BUY entry previously. It corresponds to the lower limit of the ongoing consolidation range.

On the other hand, 1.3880 remains the nearest supply level for the bears. It should be watched for early exit from the current bullish position in case significant bearish momentum is expressed. . Stop loss for the bullish position should be advanced to 1.3770 to secure some profits.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 1, 2014

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014

Show full picture Overview: USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed’s Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week’s Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank’s policy, and that he was “a bit surprised” by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U…

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Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 7.09% to 14.02; S&P rose 0.44% overnight) as speculation grew that China could adopt a fresh round of stimulus measures to bolster growth, comments from Fed’s Plosser and a mixed bag of U.S. economic releases deflated concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than expected. Plosser said last week’s Fed meeting did not reflect a fundamental shift in the central bank’s policy, and that he was “a bit surprised” by the market reaction. U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index rose stronger than expected to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February (versus 78.6 forecast), but U.S. January S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index post a smaller-than-expected 13.2% on-year increase (versus +13.5% forecast), Richmond Fed’s manufacturing current business conditions index fell to -7 in March, its lowest since July 2013, from -6 in February; while U.S. February new home sales fell bigger-than-expected 3.3% to 440,000 (versus 445,000 forecast). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and weaker USD demand on diminished expectations for earlier rate rise.

Technical сomment:


Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode; but stochastics is neutral, 15-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.65 and the second target at 102.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 102.

Resistance levels:



102.65



102.85



103.15

Support levels:



101.75



101.45



101

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2014

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014

Show full picture Overview:The USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Liquidity was thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan were shut for holiday. The USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.18 versus 80.01 early Thursday) after the Federal Reserve officials shifted forward their forecast for higher rates and Philadelphia Fed’s index of general business activity rose stronger than expected to plus 9.0 in March (versus 4.3 forecast) from minus 6.3 in February, while the U.S Conference Board leading index rose more-than-expected 0.5% (versus +0.3% forecast) in February. The USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk…

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Overview:
The USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Liquidity was thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan were shut for holiday. The USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.18 versus 80.01 early Thursday) after the Federal Reserve officials shifted forward their forecast for higher rates and Philadelphia Fed’s index of general business activity rose stronger than expected to plus 9.0 in March (versus 4.3 forecast) from minus 6.3 in February, while the U.S Conference Board leading index rose more-than-expected 0.5% (versus +0.3% forecast) in February. The USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 3.97% to 14.52; S&P rose 0.6% overnight) on upbeat U.S. data and calmer investor nerves post-FOMC, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and sell-yen orders from Japan importers. But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan exporters and positions’ adjustment before the weekend.

Technical сomment:


The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from oversold zone, the MACD is staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average and rate-of-change momentum indicator is advancing in positive territory.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.85 and the second target at 103.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.20. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 100.64. The pivot point is at 101.75.

Resistance levels:

102.85

103.15

103.45

Support levels:

101.20

100.65

100.35

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For more info: Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 12, 2014

Show full picture Overview As it is seen from today’s 4H chart, the metal is stabilizing above the support level of 20.90 after its failure to break the support level yesterday. Currently, we should wait for retesting of the support level again and closing below it to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the support level till testing the next support level of 20.55. Therefore, we can consider our first target a few pips above this support level, but as long as the price is still above the support level of 20.90, this cancels the bearish move scenario. Resistance and support levels: R3 (22.20), R2 (22.00), R1 (21.75), S1 (21.25), S2 (21.00), S3(…

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Overview

As it is seen from today’s 4H chart, the metal is stabilizing above the support level of 20.90 after its failure to break the support level yesterday. Currently, we should wait for retesting of the support level again and closing below it to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the support level till testing the next support level of 20.55. Therefore, we can consider our first target a few pips above this support level, but as long as the price is still above the support level of 20.90, this cancels the bearish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (22.20), R2 (22.00), R1 (21.75), S1 (21.25), S2 (21.00), S3(20.50).

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 12, 2014

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 24, 2014

Show full picture Since January 24, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving to the downside within the depicted bearish channel. On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit indicating weakness of the ongoing bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the bulls established an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline is roughly located at 1.5265. Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with Four-Hour fixation above price level of 1.5265. Projection target of this confirmed pattern is located at 1.5525 as long as neckline remains defended by the bulls (our stop loss level). On the other hand, consolidation below 1.5265 threatens our bullish view hindering further bullish progression allowing a sideway movement to take place between 1.5265 and 1.5080. Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award…

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Since January 24, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving to the downside within the depicted bearish channel.

On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit indicating weakness of the ongoing bearish momentum.

Simultaneously, the bulls established an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline is roughly located at 1.5265.

Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with Four-Hour fixation above price level of 1.5265.

Projection target of this confirmed pattern is located at 1.5525 as long as neckline remains defended by the bulls (our stop loss level).

On the other hand, consolidation below 1.5265 threatens our bullish view hindering further bullish progression allowing a sideway movement to take place between 1.5265 and 1.5080.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 14, 2014

Show full picture Overview: USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment and franc demand on the buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on the soft EUR/CHF cross. But the USD/CHF losses are tempered by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics are turning bearish. Trading recommendation: The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8995. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.902. The pivot point stands at 0.8955. In case the price moves in the…

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Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment and franc demand on the buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on the soft EUR/CHF cross. But the USD/CHF losses are tempered by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics are turning bearish.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8995. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.902. The pivot point stands at 0.8955. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8995 and the second target at 0.902.

Resistance levels:

0.8995

0.902

0.904

Support levels:

0.89

0.888

0.8855

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 14, 2014

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The Four Biggest Mistakes By Traders: Failing To Control Risk: Part …

The Four Biggest Mistakes By Traders: Failing To Control Risk: Part IIIBy: Chris Vermeulen | Tue, Dec 31, 2013SharePrintEmailThis is part three of a five part series of the four biggest mistakes traders and investors make which costs them time, money and usually self-confidence when trading stocks, ETF’s or futures trading strategies.The Four Biggest Mistakes1. Lack Of A Trading Plan – Part I2. Using To Much Leverage – Part II3. Failure to Control Risk4. Lack Of Self-DisciplineMistake #3 – Failing to Control RiskIf you were to engage in something risky like skydiving, you or a team would check your parachute to be sure its packed properly, strapped on to your body correctly before you jumped out of the plane. If for some reason you were not told how …

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This is part three of a five part series of the four biggest mistakes traders and investors make which costs them time, money and usually self-confidence when trading stocks, ETF's or futures trading strategies.

For more info: The Four Biggest Mistakes By Traders: Failing To Control Risk: Part …

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The Four Biggest Mistakes By Traders: Failing To Control Risk: Part …

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