Visualizzazione post con etichetta risk. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta risk. Mostra tutti i post

mercoledì 15 ottobre 2014

Small-Caps Perk Up, but Risk Off Remains in Play

Stocks attempted to bounce in early trading, but selling pressure took hold and the major index ETFs fell back in the afternoon. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) finished with a small gain (.54%) and the S&P 100 ETF (OEF) ended with a small loss (.09%). Small-caps and micro-caps held up relatively well as IWM and IWC gained over 1% on the day. Relative strength in these two is only two days old…

StockCharts.com – Blogs


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Trading, Perk, Play, Remains, risk, SmallCaps

sabato 20 settembre 2014

Market Movers #16: Risk Reward Ratio, Digesting the Fed and Chinese wobbles

What is a risk-reward ratio and why is it important? We explain and also discuss the right and wrong way to incorporate the ratio in your system. Why did the dollar rally on the FOMC meeting? 5 reasons are provided and…



Trading NRG


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Forex, chinese, Digesting, market, movers, ratio, reward, risk, wobbles

martedì 2 settembre 2014

Cyber Risk Insurance – A Necessary Coverage

Cyber Risk Insurance (also called Data Breach, Privacy, Network Security insurance) is a necessary insurance coverage for all organizations and most organizations are starting to buy the coverage. As an insurance agent or broker, you should be up to speed and ensuring your customers have (the right) coverage. The confluence of hacker attacks, employee errors, increasing regulation and internet security lapses has created a heightened level of exposure for all organizations, including smaller organizations. We noted an increasing need last year in our post Cyber Risk is Booming (see here, also Who Needs Cyber Coverage). The media is primarily focused on breaches at large organizations, but numerous breaches at smaller organizations go unreported. And many more companies are buying, as…

Specialty Insurance Blog


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Insurance, coverage, cyber, insurance, Necessary, risk

lunedì 10 febbraio 2014

The Case for Wider Option Spreads

The Case for Wider Option Spreads





via SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog:


vertical trading spx spread smb options risk options education iron condor trading When analyzing a vertical based credit spread, including iron condors and butterflies, the first question that usually comes up is where to place the short strike. In a distant second usually comes the question of where to place the long strike, that is how wide the spread will be. This leaves some analysis to be done on using more contracts for narrow spreads or fewer contracts for wide spreads.


At first glance it seems to be a better deal to narrow your spread and double the number of contracts. This is a major misconception I had about credit spreads when I started trading and later discovered the real trade off which I will Read more [...]


For more info: The Case for Wider Option Spreads


SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog



The Case for Wider Option Spreads


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Trading, iron condor, options education, risk, smb options, spread, spx, trading, vertical

martedì 4 febbraio 2014

Risk Tolerance VS Risk Capacity

Risk Tolerance VS Risk Capacity





via SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog:


trading psychology trading lesson trading trader development tolerance risk result options education coach capacity trading To be successful at trading, long term, it’s extremely important that our risk tolerance is in line with our risk capacity.


Risk “tolerance” has to do with the amount of draw down we can withstand prior to the loss psychologically effecting our trading.


Risk “capacity” has to do with the amount of draw down we can withstand prior to the loss creating a real problem with our finances.


As a trading performance coach, I’m regularly coaching some traders to increase their risk tolerance while coaching others to bring their risk tolerance down to a responsible level.


Some traders have a very high risk tolerance. Read more [...]


For more info: Risk Tolerance VS Risk Capacity


SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog



Risk Tolerance VS Risk Capacity


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Trading, capacity, coach, options education, result, risk, tolerance, trader development, trading, trading lesson, trading psychology

domenica 26 gennaio 2014

Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back …

Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back …



FX markets featured significant volatility in the past week, though the driver of that volatility was a combination of several idiosyncratic factors, rather than a core underlying narrative. Widespread risk aversion and position unwinds dominated market trading with China PMI, weak US earnings, and BoJ un-dovishness cited among more systemic factors. Turkey and Argentina (among others) have more idiosyncratic risks (and limits approaching) but as Barclays notes, market positioning has played a major role in the moves as market volatility appears to have been the straw that broke the carry-trade’s back – for now… as EM currency returns have notably decoupled from moves in US rates.Barclays on carry-US rates dislocationFX markets featured significant volatility in the past week, though the driver of that volatility …



via fx – Google Blog Search:


FX markets featured significant volatility in the past week, though the driver of that volatility was a combination of several idiosyncratic factors, rather than a core underlying narrative. Widespread risk aversion and position


For more info: Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back …


fx – Google Blog Search



Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back …


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Forex, argentina, currency, king, markets, policy, result, risk, try, turkey, volatility

When breakouts fail

When breakouts fail



LM was a trade I entered on breakout and next day got stopped out with small loss of 1.4%.Breakout failure in momentum burst is something I am not afraid of. It is very much part of the game. Ugly failures like LM happen. There are out many ways to avoid them.The trick is in good risk management . In LM trade I had 20% of account invested, but my risk was only .25%.Risk = entry-stopSo the trade not working resulted in just .28% loss on overall capital (.28 due to slippage as I exited few cents below stop)Trading momentum burst is a probability and number games. Over large number of trades the winners and losers can e equal but if the winner has higher…



via stockbee:





LM was a trade I entered on breakout and next day got stopped out with small loss of 1.4%.


Breakout failure in momentum burst is something I am not afraid of. It is very much part of the game. Ugly failures like LM happen. There are out many ways to avoid them.


The trick is in good risk management . In LM trade I had 20% of account invested, but my risk was only .25%.


Risk = entry-stop


So the trade not working resulted in just .28% loss on overall capital (.28 due to slippage as I exited few cents below stop)


Trading momentum burst is a probability and number games. Over large number of trades the winners and losers can e equal but if the winner has higher profit than losses on the losers you come out ahead.


Last year only 50.5% of my trade in this method were profitable but the winning trade produced more profit than losing trades.



If you have that kind of equation then it becomes a game of doing sufficient number of trades to get good returns.


Even if the ratio is not 2.21/1 you can still make lot of money with lower ratio provided you make sufficient trades.



That 1.62/1 ratio still produced 73.75% return for the year.


Sometime one large uncontrollable loss making trade can skew the averages. Let us say you had close stops and the stock gaps down, you end up taking more losses than you planned for.


In an ideal world I would like to enter a no losing trade and have a stop as close to entry as possible , but that is not how this particular setup works.


One of the things you will notice if you trade this kind of setup is that at market turns or correction areas you become vulnerable to losses.


When you play a momentum trading style , sudden shift in momentum like we saw yesterday can result in lot of breakout failures.


That is part of the risk involved in trading momentum.




For more info: When breakouts fail


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When breakouts fail


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Trading, come-out-ahead, count, entered-on-breakout, king, loss-on-overall, method, risk, stop-as-close, stopso-the-trade, trades-the-winners, trading

lunedì 13 gennaio 2014

Some Thoughts on 2014: Upside Volatility

Some Thoughts on 2014: Upside Volatility





via SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog:


volatility trading sectors risk isolation experienced desk contrast buying bets alarm trading The price action in 2012 presented a very compelling case for a strong market and low volatility in 2013 (see post on #NewNormal). It wasn’t the price action in isolation though. 2012 was in such stark contrast to the latter part of 2011 it really set off alarm bells in my head. We went from a period of massive volatility related to macro events to a period of suppressed volatility despite a constant stream of macro headline risk. So while many experienced traders and newbs alike (in my trading world) were making bets on the impending major market pull back, I continued to “preach” every morning on our desk that we should continue to follow the #NewNormal playbook: focus on buying stocks/sectors Read more [...]


For more info: Some Thoughts on 2014: Upside Volatility


SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog



Some Thoughts on 2014: Upside Volatility


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Trading, alarm, bets, buying, contrast, desk, experienced, isolation, risk, sectors, trading, volatility

martedì 5 novembre 2013

Investment Workout: 6 drills to cut the flab on a portfolio

Investment Workout: 6 drills to cut the flab on a portfolio



This guest post is from Andy Creak. Andy is the co-founder and director at the DIY investment platform rplan. He is passionate about helping self-investors make better financial decisions and turning the UK financial services industry on its head.As the years of my life go by, I’ve been putting more and more effort to stay in a good physical shape. During my recent 6 a.m. jog around the woods I had a light-bulb moment when I realised that our bodies and investment portfolios are very much alike. It’s simple: my portfolio’s fitness depends on how much exercise it gets, just like my body. So, I devised a workout for my portfolio. Following my 6 Investment Workouts routine should help you get your portfolio back …



via Get Rich Slowly – Personal Finance That Makes Sense.:



This guest post is from Andy Creak. Andy is the co-founder and director at the DIY investment platform rplan. He is passionate about helping self-investors make better financial decisions and turning the UK financial services industry on its head.


As the years of my life go by, I’ve been putting more and more effort to stay in a good physical shape. During my recent 6 a.m. jog around the woods I had a light-bulb moment when I realised that our bodies and investment portfolios are very much alike. It’s simple: my portfolio’s fitness depends on how much exercise it gets, just like my body. So, I devised a workout for my portfolio. Following my 6 Investment Workouts routine should help you get your portfolio back in shape.


1. Warming up: Figure out what you’re paying for your investments

Cheaper investments aren’t always better. In many cases, passive funds are a great option, but in others (such as emerging markets), actively managed funds can do much better. However, there’s no denying that excessive charges consume the performance of your funds. I tend to look at the charges on my funds from a two-level perspective:


Broker level

As with other goods and services, when choosing an investment broker, you should make sure that you get good value for money. Things to consider:



  • Figure out how much your provider is charging for holding your portfolio. The charges will most likely include: initial fees, admin fees, dealing fees, ongoing commission and sometimes exit/account closure fees.

  • Use comparison tools or spend some of your time on researching alternatives, which may give you better value for your money.


If you decide to go for the more pricey platform, make sure that you understand what additional services you are getting from them that make them worth the money


Fund level

For the purpose of this post, I shall focus on mutual funds, however this also applies to ETFs (though shares work differently.) The charges for different funds can vary widely. I tend to follow a simple rule: if a fund has higher charges, I look for a justification in better-than-average performance. It’s also worth keeping an eye out for other charges such as the performance fee (if the investment outperforms its target) or initial fees (very rare these days).


2. Push ups: Establish your risk level

The correlation between risk and reward is one of the foundations of investing; the more risk you’re prepared to take, the greater the chance of higher investment returns or losses. On the contrary, the chances of big returns are as limited as your risk tolerance. I tend to use volatility to assess the risk of my portfolios.


Once you establish how much risk you are willing to take, your investment goal and the time horizon to achieve it, you should check whether the funds in your portfolio actually give you the risk level you set out for. In some cases, I had found that I wanted a low to medium level of

risk, but the funds in my portfolio were anything but. Make sure to adjust its overall risk level by adding (or switching to) more/less risky alternatives.


3. Squats: Work out your target asset allocation

The term asset allocation simply stands for “where to invest” – such as equities or bonds, for instance, or US equities, China equities, UK government bonds if you’re going into more detail. The mix of sectors you choose will have a great impact both on the risk level of your

portfolio as well as its performance. Depending on your investment experience, you could either use a “ready-made” portfolio as a starting point, or construct your own from scratch. The key rule to remember is not to put all the eggs in one basket – diversify your investment.


4. Sit-ups: Measure your performance against a relevant benchmark

To see how your portfolio is performing in real-money terms, compare against a useful benchmark. Professional traders tend to use market indexes such as the S&P 500, however this is rarely relevant to an individual investor. You’ll want to compare to a risk-adjusted benchmark – that is, a benchmark which matches the level of risk of your portfolio. There is no use comparing your high-risk portfolio to inflation – it might make you make you feel like Mr. Buffett’s successor, but it won’t help you figure out how well you’re doing compared to others in the same space.


Firstly, find out how your portfolio has been performing over the last year and monitor the benchmark within the same date range (e.g., Sept. 1, 2012 to Aug. 31, 2013). Secondly, figure out your risk tolerance (see exercise above). Finally, carefully review your performance by comparing it against market portfolios of the same risk level. Remember that the benchmark has to have a similar risk profile. If you’re beating the benchmark – congrats, you’re all good. Otherwise, you might want to review your investment strategy (unless your are taking a bet on a specific market outcome, in which case sitting it through could be a good option).


5. Weightlifting: Rebalance

Another key exercise for your investments is to periodically adjust the proportion of assets in your portfolio. This process is known as rebalancing. Its sole purpose is to reduce the big ups and downs that markets experience by restoring the original asset allocation. It works by selling some of the investments that performed better, and buying those that have done less well. Rebalancing will keep your portfolio at its original risk level and help dampen the effects of market crashes. Vanguard done some research suggesting that investors rebalance every six to 12 months, when their asset allocation is off the target by 5 percent or more.


6. Stretching: Weed out any consistently underperforming funds

Although past performance is not an indicator of fund’s future gains, it would take a great deal of convincing for an investor to keep buying into a consistently underperforming fund over a sustained period. However in some cases, you may have a very good reason for choosing it, e.g.belief in fund manager’s strategy over the longer term. My rule of thumb is to take a closer look at any of the funds I choose which are consistently in the bottom 25 percent of their sector over a two-year period.


Is your portfolio feeling better already? Do this regularly, and it will become a reliable and regular performer with no extra fat.


If you have your own investment workout routine that you follow, make sure to share with us in

the comments!


















For more info: Investment Workout: 6 drills to cut the flab on a portfolio


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