One last post

One last postMarch 4, 2014I meant to make this post before the previous one announcing the decision to stop the blog.After a lot of reflection and analysis of February’s poor trades, if I had to point to the root cause of it, I’d say it was the refusal to take my losses on the yen pairs in late Jan / early Feb.The old proverb is very very true: The first loss is the best loss.Because I didn’t get out of those trades, my view of the market got progressively more distorted. One poor decision led to a string of poor decisions. As those trades slipped further into the red, fear crept into my decision-making leading to further poor trades.The lesson, the rule that I …

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I meant to make this post before the previous one announcing the decision to stop the blog.

After a lot of reflection and analysis of February’s poor trades, if I had to point to the root cause of it, I’d say it was the refusal to take my losses on the yen pairs in late Jan / early Feb.

The old proverb is very very true: The first loss is the best loss.

Because I didn’t get out of those trades, my view of the market got progressively more distorted. One poor decision led to a string of poor decisions. As those trades slipped further into the red, fear crept into my decision-making leading to further poor trades.

The lesson, the rule that I will never break again:

Plan the trade and trade the plan.

The first loss is always the best loss.

When the market proves you wrong, accept it gracefully, don’t fight it.

For more info: One last post

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One last post

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GBPJPY: closed short at 167.36

GBPJPY: closed short at 167.36February 7, 201414.14 gmtI must say the market reaction to the jobs report is very weird – there is not much activity, it seems tightly boxed in. USDJPY and especially GBPJPY seem to be well bid – in fact everything is well bid. I have closed my GBPJPY shorts as follows:Closed $20/pip GJ short at 167.36, -88 pips.About these adsShare this:Email Facebook Google Related From → Trades

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14.14 gmt

I must say the market reaction to the jobs report is very weird – there is not much activity, it seems tightly boxed in. USDJPY and especially GBPJPY seem to be well bid – in fact everything is well bid. I have closed my GBPJPY shorts as follows:

Closed $20/pip GJ short at 167.36, -88 pips.

For more info: GBPJPY: closed short at 167.36

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

GBPJPY: closed short at 167.36

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EURUSD – closed short at 1.3557, -19 pips

EURUSD – closed short at 1.3557, -19 pipsJanuary 31, 20148.41 gmtI’m not feeling comfortable with how EURUSD is behaving, so I have cut my loss and got out of the short trade.Closed EURUSD short at 1.3557, -19 pips.Some factors that influenced this decision were i) My entry is too late as per my system rules. I was counting on a continuation of the downtrend, but that is risky. ii) Today is a Friday, and barring any unexpected event we’re likely to see traders square off positions which means EU might rise after falling all week. iii) As I have observed a few times earlier, there seems to be a strong undercurrent of demand for the Euro despite its economic problems. This often manifests as a sudden squeeze upwards. I don’t feel …

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8.41 gmt

I’m not feeling comfortable with how EURUSD is behaving, so I have cut my loss and got out of the short trade.

Closed EURUSD short at 1.3557, -19 pips.

Some factors that influenced this decision were i) My entry is too late as per my system rules. I was counting on a continuation of the downtrend, but that is risky. ii) Today is a Friday, and barring any unexpected event we’re likely to see traders square off positions which means EU might rise after falling all week. iii) As I have observed a few times earlier, there seems to be a strong undercurrent of demand for the Euro despite its economic problems. This often manifests as a sudden squeeze upwards. I don’t feel like taking the risk.

For more info: EURUSD – closed short at 1.3557, -19 pips

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

EURUSD – closed short at 1.3557, -19 pips

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GBPJPY short – stopped out for -72 pips

GBPJPY short – stopped out for -72 pipsJanuary 28, 201422.09 gmt, 28 JanSomething strange is happening – markets are suddenly jumping about wildly, spreads on this pair have suddenly increased to 7 pips, from the usual 3 pips! I can’t find any news but since GJ has gone past my mental stop I closed it.closed GJ short from 170.50 at 171.22, -72 pips, -2.9%.Edit: Apparently the market was in turmoil after Turkey raised its interest rate dramatically from 7.75 to 12%.I guess poor liquidity at this hour also exaggerates the moves. I am going back to sleep About these adsShare this:Email Facebook Google Related From → Trades

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22.09 gmt, 28 Jan

Something strange is happening – markets are suddenly jumping about wildly, spreads on this pair have suddenly increased to 7 pips, from the usual 3 pips! I can’t find any news but since GJ has gone past my mental stop I closed it.

closed GJ short from 170.50 at 171.22, -72 pips, -2.9%.

Edit: Apparently the market was in turmoil after Turkey raised its interest rate dramatically from 7.75 to 12%.

I guess poor liquidity at this hour also exaggerates the moves. I am going back to sleep

For more info: GBPJPY short – stopped out for -72 pips

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

GBPJPY short – stopped out for -72 pips

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Short USDJPY at 103.43 – edit: lucky timing!

Short USDJPY at 103.43 – edit: lucky timing!January 23, 201418.29 gmtI’ve stayed up watching the price action in USDJPY and finally decided to hedge my long. Perhaps I am wrong, but it looks to me like UJ wants to go lower over the next few sessions.Short $15/pip USDJPY at 103.43, SL around 103.95 or when long signal generated.This hedges my long USDJPY from 104.43.Edit 18.38 gmt:USDJPY has just broken down and is below 103.20 now! Lucky timing for me About these adsShare this:Email Facebook Google Related From → Trades

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18.29 gmt

I’ve stayed up watching the price action in USDJPY and finally decided to hedge my long. Perhaps I am wrong, but it looks to me like UJ wants to go lower over the next few sessions.

Short $15/pip USDJPY at 103.43, SL around 103.95 or when long signal generated.

This hedges my long USDJPY from 104.43.

Edit 18.38 gmt:

USDJPY has just broken down and is below 103.20 now! Lucky timing for me

For more info: Short USDJPY at 103.43 – edit: lucky timing!

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Short USDJPY at 103.43 – edit: lucky timing!

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Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795

Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795January 23, 20142.03 gmtGoing short the Aussie here. The pop up from yesterday’s inflation numbers has lasted less than a day – that is bearish. Besides, my systems has generated a ‘weak’ sell signal, and given the fundamentals I am going with my system sell.Short $13/pip AUDUSD at 0.8795. SL 0.8850.As noted in my post yesterday regarding the way I track the account performance, the $/pip mentioned here refers to my personal account. The weekly and monthly performance will be measured in % terms and applied to the standard $10k account.About these adsShare this:Email Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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2.03 gmt

Going short the Aussie here. The pop up from yesterday’s inflation numbers has lasted less than a day – that is bearish. Besides, my systems has generated a ‘weak’ sell signal, and given the fundamentals I am going with my system sell.

Short $13/pip AUDUSD at 0.8795. SL 0.8850.

As noted in my post yesterday regarding the way I track the account performance, the $/pip mentioned here refers to my personal account. The weekly and monthly performance will be measured in % terms and applied to the standard $10k account.

For more info: Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795

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Short cable again !

Short cable again !January 15, 201413.31 gmtCable has really frustrated me today. I have now looked again at the longer term charts and the probability favours the downside in this pair. So I have gone short again, in both GU and GJ, as follows:Short $10/pip GBPUSD @ 1.6372, SL around 1.6422.Short $12/pip GBPJPY at 170.71, SL around 171.45.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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13.31 gmt

Cable has really frustrated me today. I have now looked again at the longer term charts and the probability favours the downside in this pair. So I have gone short again, in both GU and GJ, as follows:

Short $10/pip GBPUSD @ 1.6372, SL around 1.6422.

Short $12/pip GBPJPY at 170.71, SL around 171.45.

For more info: Short cable again !

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Short cable again !

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GBPJPY – new short @ 172.32

GBPJPY – new short @ 172.32January 10, 201412.44 gmtTogether with cable, GY has also generated a sell signal. I am keeping my long open and have opened a separate short. I’m keeping my long since this pair will be pulled in two directions by UJ and GU, so it may not drop a lot and will recover strongly. But just in case it also drops 200 pips, I’ve got that covered with the short.Short $10/pip GBPJPY at 172.32. Exit at opposite signal.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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12.44 gmt

Together with cable, GY has also generated a sell signal. I am keeping my long open and have opened a separate short. I’m keeping my long since this pair will be pulled in two directions by UJ and GU, so it may not drop a lot and will recover strongly. But just in case it also drops 200 pips, I’ve got that covered with the short.

Short $10/pip GBPJPY at 172.32. Exit at opposite signal.

For more info: GBPJPY – new short @ 172.32

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

GBPJPY – new short @ 172.32

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AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8962, -21 pips

AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8962, -21 pipsJanuary 6, 201416.25 gmtAUDUSD is not behaving as expected and is close to invalidating its short signal. My reading of the charts is that it needs to go a bit higher before it turns down again, so I have closed this short.Closed AUDUSD short at 0.8962, -21 pips, -1.8%.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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16.25 gmt

AUDUSD is not behaving as expected and is close to invalidating its short signal. My reading of the charts is that it needs to go a bit higher before it turns down again, so I have closed this short.

Closed AUDUSD short at 0.8962, -21 pips, -1.8%.

For more info: AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8962, -21 pips

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8962, -21 pips

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Planning to close all trades soon

Planning to close all trades soonJanuary 3, 201415.14 gmtI’ve just entered a limit order to close the EU shorts at 1.3595, which is not far (current level 1.3600).I’ll observe the market and am looking to exit the GU and GY shorts also in the next hour or so.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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15.14 gmt

I’ve just entered a limit order to close the EU shorts at 1.3595, which is not far (current level 1.3600).

I’ll observe the market and am looking to exit the GU and GY shorts also in the next hour or so.

For more info: Planning to close all trades soon

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Planning to close all trades soon

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Closed trades

Closed tradesJanuary 3, 201415.22 gmtHave started closing trades, will update this page as I close themClosed GBPJPY ($8/pip) at 171.33, for +219 pips ($5/pip) and 15 pips ($5/pip).15.28 gmtClosed GBPUSD $5/pip at 1.6425, +56 pipsclosed EURUSD $8/pip at 1.3613, +39 ($3/pip) and +81 ($5/pip).Flat into the weekend.This marks the end of the week and the end of Dec 2013 for my account. (I track my account on a weekly basis). From a preliminary look at my worksheet, my account looks like up 44.4% for the month, and +64.7% from Oct 21 – Jan 3.I’ll have a detailed acct statement post up over the weekend.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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15.22 gmt

Have started closing trades, will update this page as I close them

Closed GBPJPY ($8/pip) at 171.33, for +219 pips ($5/pip) and 15 pips ($5/pip).

15.28 gmt

Closed GBPUSD $5/pip at 1.6425, +56 pips

closed EURUSD $8/pip at 1.3613, +39 ($3/pip) and +81 ($5/pip).

Flat into the weekend.

This marks the end of the week and the end of Dec 2013 for my account. (I track my account on a weekly basis). From a preliminary look at my worksheet, my account looks like up 44.4% for the month, and +64.7% from Oct 21 – Jan 3.

I’ll have a detailed acct statement post up over the weekend.

For more info: Closed trades

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Closed trades

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Closed last EU short at 1.3764, +91 pips

Closed last EU short at 1.3764, +91 pipsDecember 27, 201317.12 gmtI’ve decided to lighten the risk ahead of the week-end and at the same time take profit, which will make my returns for December look good Closed EURUSD short from 1.3855 at 1.3764, +91 pips.There is a possibility that EU may show strength on Monday morning, so I want to be ready for that.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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17.12 gmt

I’ve decided to lighten the risk ahead of the week-end and at the same time take profit, which will make my returns for December look good

Closed EURUSD short from 1.3855 at 1.3764, +91 pips.

There is a possibility that EU may show strength on Monday morning, so I want to be ready for that.

For more info: Closed last EU short at 1.3764, +91 pips

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Closed last EU short at 1.3764, +91 pips

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EURAUD – closed at 1.5327, -31 pips

EURAUD – closed at 1.5327, -31 pipsDecember 24, 201316.21 gmt, Dec 24.This pair is not going anywhere and the carry cost makes it not worth holding long.Closed EURAUD short at 1.5327, -31 pips.I’m going into the holidays with short EU and short AU positions, both slightly underwater right now.Happy Holidays to all of you!About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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16.21 gmt, Dec 24.

This pair is not going anywhere and the carry cost makes it not worth holding long.

Closed EURAUD short at 1.5327, -31 pips.

I’m going into the holidays with short EU and short AU positions, both slightly underwater right now.

Happy Holidays to all of you!

For more info: EURAUD – closed at 1.5327, -31 pips

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

EURAUD – closed at 1.5327, -31 pips

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Short EURAUD @ 1.5296

Short EURAUD @ 1.5296December 23, 20135.35 gmtMarkets are quiet as expected. But the AUD is moving, the retail crowd is betting on a rebound. Since the Euro is weak, that translates into a strong move in EURAUD down. I have therefore gone short as follows:Short $5/pip EURAUD at 1.5296, SL around 1.5385.This also serves as a good hedge against my AUD short. The trick will be to get out at the right level, and hope the Aussie doesn’t do it’s beach-ball trick!About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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5.35 gmt

Markets are quiet as expected. But the AUD is moving, the retail crowd is betting on a rebound. Since the Euro is weak, that translates into a strong move in EURAUD down. I have therefore gone short as follows:

Short $5/pip EURAUD at 1.5296, SL around 1.5385.

This also serves as a good hedge against my AUD short. The trick will be to get out at the right level, and hope the Aussie doesn’t do it’s beach-ball trick!

For more info: Short EURAUD @ 1.5296

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Short EURAUD @ 1.5296

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AUDUSD: Stopped and reversed at 0.9487

AUDUSD: Stopped and reversed at 0.9487November 7, 20130.31 gmtThe Aus employment report was going to be a big factor and it has surprised to the downside. My trailing stop around 0.9495 was hit and I have closed the long and reversed short here. I expect we will see 0.93 soon.Closed long AUD at 0.9487, -34 pips.Now short $7/pip at 0.9487, SL 0.9525About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google From → Trades

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0.31 gmt

The Aus employment report was going to be a big factor and it has surprised to the downside. My trailing stop around 0.9495 was hit and I have closed the long and reversed short here. I expect we will see 0.93 soon.

Closed long AUD at 0.9487, -34 pips.

Now short $7/pip at 0.9487, SL 0.9525

For more info: AUDUSD: Stopped and reversed at 0.9487

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

AUDUSD: Stopped and reversed at 0.9487

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New short GBPUSD @ 1.6173

New short GBPUSD @ 1.6173October 23, 201314.45 gmtThis is as per the system signal. These days I barely look at the charts or the news – perhaps a few minutes at night and mornings (Singapore time). That sort of works to my advantage, since I have been trying to follow my system blindly, but too much screen time always distorts one’s thoughts. Let’s see how this works out.Short $5/pip GBPUSD at 1.6173, SL at 1.6252.The Aussie has also generated a sell signal, but I am hoping for a little bounce to catch it near 0.9650.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google From → Trades

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14.45 gmt

This is as per the system signal. These days I barely look at the charts or the news – perhaps a few minutes at night and mornings (Singapore time). That sort of works to my advantage, since I have been trying to follow my system blindly, but too much screen time always distorts one’s thoughts. Let’s see how this works out.

Short $5/pip GBPUSD at 1.6173, SL at 1.6252.

The Aussie has also generated a sell signal, but I am hoping for a little bounce to catch it near 0.9650.

For more info: New short GBPUSD @ 1.6173

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

New short GBPUSD @ 1.6173

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