AUD/USD – Aussie Slide Continues on Weak Job Data

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground on Friday, as AUD/USD trades slightly above the 0.87 line in the European session. The Aussie had looked sharp earlier in the week, but has surrendered most of those gains. On the release front, Australian Employment Change was down sharply, contracting by -29.7 thousand. On Friday, Home Loans posted a decline of 0.9%. In the US, there are no major releases on the calendar.

The Aussie continues to display strong movement this week. After climbing about 150 points earlier in the week, the currency has coughed up most of those gains, trading close to the 0.87 line. AUD/USD lost ground following dismal job numbers on Thursday, Employment Change, which had jumped some 120 thousand in July, posted a sharp decline of 29.7 thousand in the September reading. The markets had anticipated a gain of 17.6 thousand. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1%, matching the estimate.

The RBA has continually complained about the high value of the Australian dollar, saying that it was impeding economic growth. After the Aussie sank in September, in which it lost some 500 points, one might have thought that the RBA would cut the currency some slack in Tuesday’s rate statement. However, the RBA did not change its tune, stating that although the Aussie has lost ground to the US, it remained high by historical standards and continues to weigh on the economy.

US Unemployment Claims were unchanged, coming in at 287 thousand for a second straight week. This beat the estimate of 291 thousand. The indicator has now exceeded the forecast for four straight readings. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 4.84 million, up from 4.67 million a month earlier. These numbers follow last week’s excellent Nonfarm Payrolls, pointing to a stronger job market in the US. With QE slated to end later this month, the focus will shift to the timetable for an interest rake hike, which could take place in the first half of 2015.

Earlier in the week, the FOMC minutes of the last policy meeting were unexpectedly dovish. In the minutes, the Fed poured some cold water on rising expectations of a rate hike, as a number of policymakers said that the Federal Reserve should take a more data-dependent approach regarding a rate hike. The Fed also voiced concern about the rising strength of the US dollar which could weigh on the recovery. These factors could well support keeping the current accommodative policy in place.

AUD/USD for Friday, October 10, 2014

AUD/USD October 10 at 11:55 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8712 H: 0.8785 L: 0.8706

AUD/USD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.8456	0.8550	0.8668	0.8763	0.8820	0.8953

• AUD/USD posted sharp losses in the Asian session, breaking below resistance at 0.8763. The pair has edged lower in the European session.


• On the upside, 0.8763 has reverted to a resistance role as the pair trades at lower levels. 0.8820 is stronger.


• 0.8668 is an immediate support line. 0.8550 is next.


• Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456 and 0.8315


• Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953, 0.9020 and 0.9119

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD reversing directions and moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian Home Loans. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.9%.


• 00:45 RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey Speaks.


• 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.5%.


• 13:00 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.


• 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance.


• 19:30 US FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Slight Gains on Strong Australian Data

The Australian dollar has posted modest gains on Wednesday, as AUD/USD trades in the high-0.88 range in the European session. On the release front, Australian CB Leading Index improved to 0.5%. The RBA released its Financial Stability Review, in which the central bank said it was considering steps to reduce the amount of credit available to home buyers. In the US, today’s highlight is New Home Sales. The markets are expecting the indicator to improve in the upcoming release.

There was good news from the Australian CB Leading Index, which posted a gain of 0.5% last month, its best showing since January. The index helps analysts gauge the health of the economy in various sectors, including construction and exports. As well, the RBA released its semi-annual Financial Stability Review. The report noted continuing concern over a possible real estate crash. House prices continue to move higher, thanks to low interest rate environment. The RBA said that it is considering tighter bank lending regulations, which would make it more difficult to obtain credit. A hike in interest rates is considered unlikely, as the RBA does not want to see the Aussie rise to higher levels and hinder economic growth.

US Existing Home Sales didn’t impress in August, slipping to 5.05 million, compared to 5.15 million in the previous release. This was way off the estimate of 5.21 million. The indicator had exceeded the estimate in the past three releases, so the weak numbers disappointed the markets. The markets are hoping for better news from New Home Sales, which will be released later on Wednesday. The indicator has been struggling lately, with the past two readings missing expectations. The markets are expecting a stronger reading for August, with an estimate of 432 thousand.

The US economy continues to grapple with weak inflation levels, as underscored by August releases. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, came in at -0.2%, its first decline since October. Core CPI followed suit with a flat reading of 0.0%. This was the first time the index failed to post a gain since October 2010. The weak numbers follow disappointing manufacturing inflation data. PPI, a key event, dipped to just 0.0%, a 3-month low. Core PPI also softened in August. Low inflation levels could delay the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates, which is widely expected to take place in the first half of 2015.

AUD/USD for Wednesday, September 24, 2014

AUD/USD September 23 at 11:00 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8883 H: 0.8897 L: 0.8839

AUD/USD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.8668	0.8763	0.8820	0.8953	0.9020	0.9119

• AUD/USD posted gains in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade.


• 0.8820 is am immediate support line. 0.8763 is stronger.


• 0.8953 is the next resistance line.


• Current range: 0.8820 to 0.8953

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8820, 0.8763, 0.8668 and 0.8550


• Above: 0.8953, 0.9020, 0.9119, 0.9229 and 0.9361

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Wednesday, reversing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted modest gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Aussie moving to higher ground.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:00 Australian CB Leading Index. Actual 0.5%.


• 1:30 RBA Financial Stability Review.


• 14:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 432K.


• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M.


• 16:05 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Slumping Aussie Approaches 90 Level

The Australian dollar’s miseries continue, as AUD/USD has lost more ground on Friday. In the European session, the pair is trading in the mid-0.90 range, its lower level since March. The Aussie has had a dismal week, surrendering over 300 points. There are no Australian releases on Friday. In the US, it’s a busy day with the release of three major events – Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

US employment data continues to disappoint, as concerns increase regarding the health of the US job market. Unemployment Claims rose to 315 thousand, the largest number of claims in 10 weeks. The reading was much higher than the estimate of 306 thousand. This follows soft numbers from JOLTS Job Openings and a dismal Nonfarm Payrolls last week. The troubling job numbers are unlikely to affect the Fed’s plan to continue trimming QE next week, but a weak labor market could postpone plans to raise interest rates by mid-2015.

Australian employment numbers made headlines on Thursday, as Employment Change posted an incredible gain of 121,000 last month, crushing the estimate of 15,000. The markets are having some difficulty accepting these stratospheric figures at face value, with one Australian analyst noting that the numbers are “somewhat difficult to interpret”. The Australian statistics bureau claimed that a rotation in its survey group affected the August figures, and we’re likely to hear more about the authenticity of these numbers in the next few days. There were no doubts about the veracity of the unemployment rate, which dipped to 6.1%, beating the estimate of 6.3%. The Aussie posted gains after the employment releases but then retracted and continued to head southward.

Confidence in the Australian economy appears to be waning, according to the latest business and consumer confidence data. Westpac Consumer Sentiment had been steadily improving, but the upswing came to a crashing halt as the indicator slipped by 4.6% in August. This marked a 4-month low. Earlier this week, NAB Business Confidence, a key indicator, slipped to 8 points in August, compared to 11 points a month earlier. Weak business and consumer confidence in Australia’s economy could translate into decreased spending by consumers and businesses, which would be grim news for the weak economy.

The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese releases, as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. Chinese Trade Balance hit a record high in August, as the surplus climbed to $ 49.8 billion, easily beating the estimate of $ 40.8 billion. Stronger Chinese exports should translate into increased demand for Australian raw materials, which bodes well for the Australian export sector and the Aussie. On Thursday, Chinese CPI came in at 2.0%, as the index fell to a 4-month low.

AUD/USD for Friday, September 12, 2014

AUD/USD September 12 at 12:55 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9054 H: 0.9099 L: 0.9043

AUD/USD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.8820	0.8953	0.9020	0.9119	0.9229	0.9361

• AUD/USD lost ground in the Asian session, dropping below the 0.91 line. The pair is unchanged in European trading.


• 0.9020 has weakened and is an immediate support level. 0.8953 is stronger.


• On the upside, 0.9119 has some breathing room as the Aussie continues to lose ground. 0.9229 is stronger.


• Current range: 0.9020 to 0.9119

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.9020, 0.8953, 0.8820 and 0.8860


• Above: 0.9119, 0.9229, 0.9361, 0.9446 and 0.9617

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Friday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Australian dollar continues to lose ground. The ratio continues to have a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar reversing directions and moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 12:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.


• 12:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%.


• 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.8%.


• 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 83.2 points.


• 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.


• 14:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.5%.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUDUSD: entered long at 0.8984

AUDUSD: entered long at 0.8984February 7, 201413.51 gmtThere is a huge seller sitting at 8980, but it looks like this level will break and we will head for 9086 soon. I have entered long as follows:long $13/pip AUDUSD at 0.8984, SL 0.8945.About these adsShare this:Email Facebook Google Related From → Trades

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

13.51 gmt

There is a huge seller sitting at 8980, but it looks like this level will break and we will head for 9086 soon. I have entered long as follows:

long $13/pip AUDUSD at 0.8984, SL 0.8945.

For more info: AUDUSD: entered long at 0.8984

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AUDUSD: entered long at 0.8984

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Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795

Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795January 23, 20142.03 gmtGoing short the Aussie here. The pop up from yesterday’s inflation numbers has lasted less than a day – that is bearish. Besides, my systems has generated a ‘weak’ sell signal, and given the fundamentals I am going with my system sell.Short $13/pip AUDUSD at 0.8795. SL 0.8850.As noted in my post yesterday regarding the way I track the account performance, the $/pip mentioned here refers to my personal account. The weekly and monthly performance will be measured in % terms and applied to the standard $10k account.About these adsShare this:Email Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

2.03 gmt

Going short the Aussie here. The pop up from yesterday’s inflation numbers has lasted less than a day – that is bearish. Besides, my systems has generated a ‘weak’ sell signal, and given the fundamentals I am going with my system sell.

Short $13/pip AUDUSD at 0.8795. SL 0.8850.

As noted in my post yesterday regarding the way I track the account performance, the $/pip mentioned here refers to my personal account. The weekly and monthly performance will be measured in % terms and applied to the standard $10k account.

For more info: Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795

Zen and the Art of FX Trading

Short AUDUSD @ 0.8795

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Closed all trades, hedged GBPJPY

Closed all trades, hedged GBPJPYJanuary 16, 201412.06 gmtI am travelling tonight (Singapore time) until Tuesday morning next week. Co-incidentally UJ and GJ have generated sell signals, and EU has generated a long signal right now. Considering all factors, I’ve decided to take profits in all open trades and hedge GY which looks a little heavy.USDJPY: closed at 104.72, +104 pips, +7.5%EURJPY: closed at 142.51, +62 pips, +3.3%AUDUSD: closed both short trades at 0.8786, +101 average pips on $16/pip size. +10.5%. System is still clearly short this pair, I feel reluctant to exit. But I note that nobody ever lost money taking profit!GBPUSD: closed short at 1.6334, +38 pips, 2.3%. System is still short this pair, so again I am reluctant to close it but have to …

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

12.06 gmt

I am travelling tonight (Singapore time) until Tuesday morning next week. Co-incidentally UJ and GJ have generated sell signals, and EU has generated a long signal right now. Considering all factors, I’ve decided to take profits in all open trades and hedge GY which looks a little heavy.

USDJPY: closed at 104.72, +104 pips, +7.5%

EURJPY: closed at 142.51, +62 pips, +3.3%

AUDUSD: closed both short trades at 0.8786, +101 average pips on $16/pip size. +10.5%. System is still clearly short this pair, I feel reluctant to exit. But I note that nobody ever lost money taking profit!

GBPUSD: closed short at 1.6334, +38 pips, 2.3%. System is still short this pair, so again I am reluctant to close it but have to do so under the circumstances.

EURUSD has generated a long signal at current levels (1.3610) with a stop around 1.3575, but I am not taking it due to the travel.

Opened a new short GBPJPY $10/pip at 171.01. This hedges the long I am carrying from 172.89. So I have no net exposure over this travel period if I don’t open any new trades.

Edit 12.40 gmt:

It took me quite some time to enter all the trades data into my worksheet and into the post, with all the pips calculations, etc. When I finished the post and looked at the charts, UJ has rolled over, taking EJ & GJ down with it. So my timing was good – some good luck with me these days

For more info: Closed all trades, hedged GBPJPY

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Closed all trades, hedged GBPJPY

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AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8911, -46 pips

AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8911, -46 pipsDecember 30, 201313.58 gmtAUDUSD is about to break out to the upside and since the market is heavily short we might see a good squeeze up. I’ve decided to get out early and maybe look to re-enter short in the new year.Closed AUDUSD short at 0.8911, -46 pips.About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

13.58 gmt

AUDUSD is about to break out to the upside and since the market is heavily short we might see a good squeeze up. I’ve decided to get out early and maybe look to re-enter short in the new year.

Closed AUDUSD short at 0.8911, -46 pips.

For more info: AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8911, -46 pips

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AUDUSD: closed short at 0.8911, -46 pips

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Long USDJPY @ 100.35

Long USDJPY @ 100.35November 21, 201300:36 gmtUSD has turned up and this time it looks like we will test the previous USDJPY high at 103.80!Long $6/pip USDJPY at 100.35.I think I’ve missed the train on AUDUSD. I am generally reluctant to short this pair, so I hesitated and didn’t go short yesterday at 0.9380 when there were ample opportunities. It’s now at 0.9325, too far from a good entry level!EURJPY will now be pushed in opposing directions by EU and UJ, so we should see sideways trading between 134 – 136 for some time.Share this:Email Print Facebook Google RelatedFrom → Trades

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00:36 gmt

USD has turned up and this time it looks like we will test the previous USDJPY high at 103.80!

Long $6/pip USDJPY at 100.35.

I think I’ve missed the train on AUDUSD. I am generally reluctant to short this pair, so I hesitated and didn’t go short yesterday at 0.9380 when there were ample opportunities. It’s now at 0.9325, too far from a good entry level!

EURJPY will now be pushed in opposing directions by EU and UJ, so we should see sideways trading between 134 – 136 for some time.

For more info: Long USDJPY @ 100.35

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Long USDJPY @ 100.35

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Long AUDUSD @ 0.9386

Long AUDUSD @ 0.9386November 19, 20131.25 gmtAUD has just bounced off a s-t trendline and provides an attractive entry level here. Missed a good entry at 0.93 – 0.9320 yesterday, but this is close enough.Long $5/pip AUDUSD @ 0.9386, SL 0.9348About these adsShare this:Email Print Facebook Google From → Trades

via Zen and the Art of FX Trading:

1.25 gmt

AUD has just bounced off a s-t trendline and provides an attractive entry level here. Missed a good entry at 0.93 – 0.9320 yesterday, but this is close enough.

Long $5/pip AUDUSD @ 0.9386, SL 0.9348

For more info: Long AUDUSD @ 0.9386

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Long AUDUSD @ 0.9386

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