GBP Rises After Positive UK Housing and Confidence Data

The pound rose to a one-week high versus the dollar after reports showed U.K. home prices gained for a second month in October and consumer confidence increased.

U.K. government bonds climbed for the first time in three days as Barclays Plc pushed back its forecast for the Bank of England’s first interest-rate increase since 2007 to February from November. Minutes of BOE policy makers’ most recent meeting are set to be published on Oct. 22. A report two days later will show the British economy expanded for a seventh consecutive quarter, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

“It’s seeing a short-term resurgence,” Jeremy Stretch, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London, said of the U.K. currency. “It’s a slightly more positive risk environment and I guess the underlying theme is still going to be data-driven.”

Sterling rose 0.3 percent to $ 1.6144 at 1:59 p.m. London time after touching $ 1.6151, the highest since Oct. 9. It fell to $ 1.5875 on Oct. 15, a level not seen since November. The pound strengthened 0.2 percent to 79.12 pence per euro.

Investors may sell the U.K. currency as it advances, according to Stretch, who doesn’t “see the justification for a squeeze higher to $ 1.62 or anything of that magnitude,” he said.

via Bloomberg

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AUD/USD – Aussie Slide Continues on Weak Job Data

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground on Friday, as AUD/USD trades slightly above the 0.87 line in the European session. The Aussie had looked sharp earlier in the week, but has surrendered most of those gains. On the release front, Australian Employment Change was down sharply, contracting by -29.7 thousand. On Friday, Home Loans posted a decline of 0.9%. In the US, there are no major releases on the calendar.

The Aussie continues to display strong movement this week. After climbing about 150 points earlier in the week, the currency has coughed up most of those gains, trading close to the 0.87 line. AUD/USD lost ground following dismal job numbers on Thursday, Employment Change, which had jumped some 120 thousand in July, posted a sharp decline of 29.7 thousand in the September reading. The markets had anticipated a gain of 17.6 thousand. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1%, matching the estimate.

The RBA has continually complained about the high value of the Australian dollar, saying that it was impeding economic growth. After the Aussie sank in September, in which it lost some 500 points, one might have thought that the RBA would cut the currency some slack in Tuesday’s rate statement. However, the RBA did not change its tune, stating that although the Aussie has lost ground to the US, it remained high by historical standards and continues to weigh on the economy.

US Unemployment Claims were unchanged, coming in at 287 thousand for a second straight week. This beat the estimate of 291 thousand. The indicator has now exceeded the forecast for four straight readings. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 4.84 million, up from 4.67 million a month earlier. These numbers follow last week’s excellent Nonfarm Payrolls, pointing to a stronger job market in the US. With QE slated to end later this month, the focus will shift to the timetable for an interest rake hike, which could take place in the first half of 2015.

Earlier in the week, the FOMC minutes of the last policy meeting were unexpectedly dovish. In the minutes, the Fed poured some cold water on rising expectations of a rate hike, as a number of policymakers said that the Federal Reserve should take a more data-dependent approach regarding a rate hike. The Fed also voiced concern about the rising strength of the US dollar which could weigh on the recovery. These factors could well support keeping the current accommodative policy in place.

AUD/USD for Friday, October 10, 2014

AUD/USD October 10 at 11:55 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8712 H: 0.8785 L: 0.8706

AUD/USD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.8456	0.8550	0.8668	0.8763	0.8820	0.8953

• AUD/USD posted sharp losses in the Asian session, breaking below resistance at 0.8763. The pair has edged lower in the European session.


• On the upside, 0.8763 has reverted to a resistance role as the pair trades at lower levels. 0.8820 is stronger.


• 0.8668 is an immediate support line. 0.8550 is next.


• Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456 and 0.8315


• Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953, 0.9020 and 0.9119

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD reversing directions and moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:30 Australian Home Loans. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.9%.


• 00:45 RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey Speaks.


• 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.5%.


• 13:00 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.


• 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance.


• 19:30 US FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Market Movers #17: Contango vs. Backwardation, Scottish reverberations and key US data

Do the terms Contango and Backwardation sound Greek to you? Well, they do have an impact on oil prices and we’re here to explain. We then wrap up the Scottish referendum with its future implications and prepare for the important…

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AUD/USD – Slight Gains on Strong Australian Data

The Australian dollar has posted modest gains on Wednesday, as AUD/USD trades in the high-0.88 range in the European session. On the release front, Australian CB Leading Index improved to 0.5%. The RBA released its Financial Stability Review, in which the central bank said it was considering steps to reduce the amount of credit available to home buyers. In the US, today’s highlight is New Home Sales. The markets are expecting the indicator to improve in the upcoming release.

There was good news from the Australian CB Leading Index, which posted a gain of 0.5% last month, its best showing since January. The index helps analysts gauge the health of the economy in various sectors, including construction and exports. As well, the RBA released its semi-annual Financial Stability Review. The report noted continuing concern over a possible real estate crash. House prices continue to move higher, thanks to low interest rate environment. The RBA said that it is considering tighter bank lending regulations, which would make it more difficult to obtain credit. A hike in interest rates is considered unlikely, as the RBA does not want to see the Aussie rise to higher levels and hinder economic growth.

US Existing Home Sales didn’t impress in August, slipping to 5.05 million, compared to 5.15 million in the previous release. This was way off the estimate of 5.21 million. The indicator had exceeded the estimate in the past three releases, so the weak numbers disappointed the markets. The markets are hoping for better news from New Home Sales, which will be released later on Wednesday. The indicator has been struggling lately, with the past two readings missing expectations. The markets are expecting a stronger reading for August, with an estimate of 432 thousand.

The US economy continues to grapple with weak inflation levels, as underscored by August releases. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, came in at -0.2%, its first decline since October. Core CPI followed suit with a flat reading of 0.0%. This was the first time the index failed to post a gain since October 2010. The weak numbers follow disappointing manufacturing inflation data. PPI, a key event, dipped to just 0.0%, a 3-month low. Core PPI also softened in August. Low inflation levels could delay the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates, which is widely expected to take place in the first half of 2015.

AUD/USD for Wednesday, September 24, 2014

AUD/USD September 23 at 11:00 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8883 H: 0.8897 L: 0.8839

AUD/USD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.8668	0.8763	0.8820	0.8953	0.9020	0.9119

• AUD/USD posted gains in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade.


• 0.8820 is am immediate support line. 0.8763 is stronger.


• 0.8953 is the next resistance line.


• Current range: 0.8820 to 0.8953

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.8820, 0.8763, 0.8668 and 0.8550


• Above: 0.8953, 0.9020, 0.9119, 0.9229 and 0.9361

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Wednesday, reversing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted modest gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Aussie moving to higher ground.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 00:00 Australian CB Leading Index. Actual 0.5%.


• 1:30 RBA Financial Stability Review.


• 14:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 432K.


• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M.


• 16:05 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Forex, audusd, australian, Data, Gains, Slight, Strong