Visualizzazione post con etichetta process. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta process. Mostra tutti i post

sabato 20 settembre 2014

Always think process flow


Everytime you see someone twitting a stock idea, ignore the idea, try and find out what process this person uses to find that stock.


Every Time you visit a blog of someone you think is good trader find out what process this person uses to find that stock.


Every time you read a book on trading find out what process this person uses to find that stock.


Every time you attend a trading seminar or workshop ind out what process this person uses to find that stock.


The process understanding is very important. If we do that we should be able to find same stock and trade it in same way.


Don’t get fascinated by picks ask the person


“Brother or sister can you tell me what step by step process you use to find these things. What scans did you use. where did you enter why, where did you exit or plan to exit, how much did you buy”


and if he or she can not tell you that it is difficult to make money from those ideas.



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Trading, Always, flow, process, think

lunedì 10 febbraio 2014

Do you want to improve your trading?

Do you want to improve your trading?



Then learn how procedural memory works.The day you realize trading success is about developing procedural memory, you will be on path to success.Trading success is about developing expertise. When you try and develop expertise you train your procedural memory. Procedural memories are implicit memories. They allow us to lower cognitive load. They are learned intuitions.Procedural memory is memory about how to do a process. It is stored in memory as one schema. A process containing say 32 steps is not stored in memory as 32 discrete step but as one sequence of step. When performing that task the brain efficiently recalls all those steps simultaneously so you can do the task effortlessly.Procedural memory helps free up the brain to do other things. It frees the …



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Then learn how procedural memory works.



The day you realize trading success is about developing procedural memory, you will be on path to success.



Trading success is about developing expertise. When you try and develop expertise you train your procedural memory. Procedural memories are implicit memories. They allow us to lower cognitive load. They are learned intuitions.



Procedural memory is memory about how to do a process. It is stored in memory as one schema. A process containing say 32 steps is not stored in memory as 32 discrete step but as one sequence of step. When performing that task the brain efficiently recalls all those steps simultaneously so you can do the task effortlessly.



Procedural memory helps free up the brain to do other things. It frees the brain by reducing cognitive load. We have thousands of procedural memories developed over our lifetime. They make our life easy. For example take a simple skill like flossing your teeth, it is a procedural memory once you develop it you can perform it daily without thinking or while doing some other task without focusing on a step by step sequence.



Procedural memory also allows us to do vast number of day to day tasks. Imagine if you had to learn to drive everyday, or learn to walk everyday. Life would be impossible without well developed procedural memory. Same things happens in trading. As a trader you develop hundreds of procedural memories to make your trading effortless.



Most successful traders who survive the market for many years have developed a procedural memories specific to a style of trading or a setup.



They can instinctively trade those setups without thinking about individual processes or steps involved in that setup. They are not conscious of the steps.



A novice watching them trade many times do not understand their decisions. Many times they get out of a trade just before it hits a pothole or avoid certain trade that novice will take. Lot of it is instinct developed as a result of procedural memory development. It is like a driver instinctively hitting breaks at sign of something on the road.



For discretionary trading it is all about procedural memory development on a specific setup.



If your efforts at training procedural memory to trade a setup or style are successful then you will become efficient in trading that style.



Once you learn a setup it become relatively easy to develop procedural memory on related style or setup.



But it is difficult to develop procedural memory on another instrument or style. That is why you will see many successful traders focus on very narrow niche in the market.



Some focus on growth investing , some focus on value, some on options, some on futures, some on currencies.



Within that they focus on very niche setup. Some trade say growth stock as swing trades, some trade them as position trades. These two setups require distinct procedural memories.



Most successful traders learn by trial and error that sticking to their setup is best because when they do it the procedural memory automatically kicks in.



As against that novice traders are ambitious, they want to trade as many setups as possible. They don’t want to miss out on any style or instrument like option or futures. So they try and simultaneously develop procedural memory. That obviously leads to failure.


If we know that the key to discretionary trading success is procedural memory then why is it difficult to develop procedural memory?


To develop procedural memory you need highly structured environment.



When you learn to drive, it is done under structured environment. You learn it in stepwise manner under close supervision. There is someone sitting next to you closely supervising every step and also ensures you don’t get killed. Every month you will see some young kid getting killed in car accident, and the reason is largely to do with lack of well developed procedural memory and bravado.



As against that much of learning to trade on your own is unstructured and unsupervised process unless you join a trading firm or a Wall Street trading house or bank. You are your own instructor and you need to create your own structure and you need to give yourself correct feedback and you need to ensure you do not get killed by blowing up your account.



If you read the classic Wall Street books like How I made 2 million dollars in stock market by Darvas or Reminiscence of a Stock operator, you will see that much of the struggle depicted in those book is about trying to find a setup and a process and sticking to it. Once Darvas found his setup and developed a process it was easy. In Livermore case he went from setup to setup and from day trading to position trading before making big money.



As a novice trader if you understand the role of procedural memory in trading you would approach the task differently. You will set process goals as against monetary goals. You will focus on well developed setup idea with step by step instructions. You will try and find someone to supervise your process and ensure you do not get killed during the earning process. In most procedural memory development situation a apprentice model has shown to be most effective for learning.



When you attempt to develop procedural memory on your own, unless you are extremely motivated and driven (or the correct word according to psychologists is you have very high self efficacy beliefs) the task is difficult. That is why you will see few extremely motivated individuals make it in this field.



This is the reason most ordinary and less motivated traders fail before they can achieve profitability.



They blame markets or other things for it but in many cases the fault lies with failure to train procedural memory.



In order to develop procedural memory for any given time frame or style or set up first you need to start with well defined setup with clear step by step process led out with clear explanation for each step.



For example if you were to decide to trade a swing trade setup, you need clear well defined highly structured process that you can follow and master till you can do it on your own without supervision.



That kind of process requires time and effort. Within that process the external environment plays important role. You might decide to focus on a setup and then market might go in to correction offering you no opportunity to use your setup for some weeks or months. Can you sustain your motivation during that time.



If you look at procedural memory development situations outside of trading then you will see that all of them impose enormous structure.


Dancing pr ice skating is one of the skills developed through procedural memory development. If you see the process used for training dancers you will see that it is highly structured and regimented. You are given specific skill to practice. There is close supervision of the practice. There is constant feedback loop.



Enormous hours are spent on practice before a performance is attempted. The learning happens primarily from repeated practice. It takes 10 to 15 years of rigorous practice before ballerinas are considered suitable for major performance.


What does the Bolshoi Ballet Academy in Moscow do. It takes young girls from all over Russia and trains them in to ballet using a extremely structured method called Vaganova Method. The effort involved in brutal and the instructors are very demanding. It takes anywhere between 10 to 15 years of training to become good ballerina.



How are surgeons trained. They start early in med school as apprentice, do simple procedures first under close supervision. For next 6 to 10 years they perform hundreds of procedures working under a highly skilled surgeon or group of surgeon. After 10 year or more of developing procedural memory they venture on their own. My brother is world renowned cardiac surgeon and I have seen very closely how they learn this art .






The ballet training, ice skating , heart or brain surgery or trading is primarily about developing implicit memory.



Implicit memories are unconscious memories. They are formed through automation.



Procedural memory is memory about skill.



In the case of a dancer or a surgeon the procedural memory challenge is about developing a complex skill which require enormous coordination of various muscles and activities.



Through repeated practice the skill becomes automatic and a procedural memory for it is developed. Same way a good trader primarily has developed procedural memory skills related to specific setup.


Developing procedural memory skills requires breaking down a skill in to process and then mastering those processes. S



impler skills are easy to master. For example riding a bike is easy skill to develop as procedural memory skills involved are relatively easy. The time taken to learn it is small.



But if you have to learn extremely complex skills and skills requiring use of multiple skills simultaneously then the training involved for it has to simulate those situations and also allow allow the learner to gain confidence in his own skills.



That is the basis for developing procedural memory skills for commandos. We can use same learning in trading by doing set up practice like we did in January series of posts or through the boot camps held every year.


US Army, Navy, and Air force have world’s best training programs. If you study the history of training skills development in these institutions you will find that they were the first to recognize the concept of procedural memory.



If you read book on expertise development, you will see that vast amount of learning about expertise development process has happened through research on training armies. .


One of the best book on understanding expertise development, procedural memory and implicit learning is Development of Professional Expertise by K. Anders Ericsson street stock russia process market major learning king discovery count channel brother trading



The book focuses on understanding how highly skilled professionals learn their skills.



Professionals such as medical doctors, airplane pilots, lawyers, and technical specialists find that some of their peers have reached high levels of achievement that are difficult to measure objectively.



In order to understand to what extent it is possible to learn from these expert performers for the purpose of helping others improve their performance, we first need to reproduce and measure this performance. The book delves into research in this field.



This book is designed to provide the first comprehensive overview of research on the acquisition and training of professional performance as measured by objective methods rather than by subjective ratings by supervisors.



The book is collection of articles. In those articles the world’s foremost experts discuss methods for assessing the experts’ knowledge and review our knowledge on how we can measure professional performance and design training environments that permit beginning and experienced professionals to develop and maintain their high levels of performance, using examples from a wide range of professional domains.


What does the US Army, Navy or Air force do. It takes raw recruits and through a extremely structured program it converts them into exceptionally skilled warriors. It helps them develop procedural memory through a highly disciplined and structured program. If you want to understand how this is done watch the video Navy Seals Buds Class 234 Discovery Channel street stock russia process market major learning king discovery count channel brother trading


If your objective is to become elite trader the training process would be similar.



The only difference is you have to structure your own training and develop your own training material and then have the discipline to train yourself.



Along the way there will be several setbacks and ability to persist under those circumstances is critical. Besides that you should survive the self training phase without blowing your account (which very few would do).



That is the enormity of the task involved in becoming a successful trader. Which most novice have no idea about. They set goals like to make 500 dollars per day without having a process to do that. Or they spend time developing a trading plan which does not take into account the time required for developing procedural memory. Or they look for shortcuts.



Behind every successful self learned trader you will find similar story of extreme efforts and extreme frustration and then slowly discovery of profitable method. Unfortunately most people will not tell you that.



The Stockbee Advanced Bootcamp will give you an insight into the process. As many of the traders attending it have been practising their skills and craft for many years before gaining enough confidence to do this for living.


If you want to become good at trading keep the essence of procedural memory development in your mind everyday :



  1. structured environment



  2. supervised practice



  3. extensive practice





When you try to develop procedural memory on your own, you are your own supervisor, mentor, instructor, motivator and so on. Besides that you are developing your own syllabus. As against that in any structured environment they have studied procedural memory skills required for the job and have template to develop such skills in others.


That is the big challenge for trader who tries to learn trading on his own. And it is also the reason for high failure rate. What can trader do to survive such learning process and become successful:


Understand that learning to trade is about developing expertise. And specifically it is about training procedural memory.



Understand that procedural memory is task specific. So specializing in a setup is extremely critical.



Once you select a setup then you develop procedural memory specific to that setup. A trader who is good at trading say momentum stocks on 3-10 days has developed a procedural memory specific to that setup.



Understand that selecting your trading time frame is critical. If you want to be day trader the kind of procedural memory development you will need is very different from if you decide to be swing trader.



Understand that less number of setups you focus on better it is.



The entire logic behind the procedural memory development process is that it allows you to overcome cognitive load.



The more setups you try and trade simultaneously more is cognitive load. When your short term memory gets overloaded you tend to make mistake and get frustrated.



First master one setup then you will find mastering other setup easier.



Understand that there are no secrets in this business. The real secret is your ability to develop procedural memory.



Procedural memory can only be developed through “How to ” kind of knowledge. If someone gives you a secret way to put stops as a software plugin. It is perfectly useless. Because it does not allow you to develop your own procedural memory skill.



Similarly someone gives you 3 picks daily and does not tell you in significant detail how that person actually arrived at those picks, what scans he used, what software he uses, what analytical methods he used to arrive at those 3 picks from 100 other stocks meeting same conditions , you will learn nothing. It will not help you in anyway to develop procedural memory.



Understand that many profitable traders are not conscious of how they develop their own trading skill and how procedural memory work. in fact most would not have even heard of procedural memory unless they had background in psychology or are involved in training.



That is why instead of asking a trader how and what he does, it is better to meet them face to face and observe what they do. Procedural memory is best developed through face to face interactions as it allows you to clarify process and completes feedback loop.



Understand that profitable traders can not verbalize the process they follow. Procedural memories are implicit memories they can not be easily verbalized. A person who possess a skill in particular kind of trading may not be aware of steps he or she is following.



Psychologist and those who study procedural memory use special techniques to build procedural maps to understand such skills. Often you will read a interview or watch an interview of famous trader and you will see that the person does not tell you much about his process. Often they give you generalities , why because they are not aware of their own procedural skills.



So if you ask the most prolific day trader on the Timeline about his trading , it is unlikely he can help you much because so much of his skill is implicit. He or she knows how to do it , but can not verbalize how they do it. It is not possible for every skilled trader to verbalise their process. There are many gaps in their explanation and actual process.



Understand that once you develop procedural memory it is on autopilot and it is lifetime skill. Once you learn a process it tends to become part of you as long as you keep using it. That is why learning to trade can be your best retirement strategy. You will see some old traders on Stockbee site who are trading into their 70’s



Understand that procedural memory is not developed through hard work. There are many hardworking traders but they do not necessarily make lot of money. Why because they may not be having right procedural memory. In fact once you develop procedural memory you don’t really need to work hard. that is the essential role of procedural memory.



If you want to be successful rader there is one thing you can do today and that is to narrow your focus to very small setup idea and develop procedural memory about it.





For more info: Do you want to improve your trading?


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lunedì 3 febbraio 2014

Did you waste the month of January

Did you waste the month of January



Stop flirting from setup to setupStop flirting from one setup to another.Stop flirting from one time frame to another.Stop flirting from one indicator to another.Stop flirting and do the same things for months till you get nuances of it.In a day or a week you will be exposed to many new trading ideas and setups. Just because someone mentions IBD you do not drastically alter your setup and chase the new new thing.For beginner traders this is a challenge.Because many of us at beginning do not know what works and what does not work, we are susceptible to try every new thing. We are also gullible and believe anything and everything.If there is market direction change or few failed trades…



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Stop flirting from setup to setup

Stop flirting from one setup to another.


Stop flirting from one time frame to another.


Stop flirting from one indicator to another.


Stop flirting and do the same things for months till you get nuances of it.


In a day or a week you will be exposed to many new trading ideas and setups. Just because someone mentions IBD you do not drastically alter your setup and chase the new new thing.


For beginner traders this is a challenge.


Because many of us at beginning do not know what works and what does not work, we are susceptible to try every new thing. We are also gullible and believe anything and everything.


If there is market direction change or few failed trades we start flirting with other things.


The proliferation of blogs, books, forums, Twitter and all kinds of media creates constant temptation to flirt from one trading ideas to another.


Everyone is out to market there approach as the best approach with carefully selected examples to make their case.


If someone highlights a trade then everyone runs to it.


If some new book comes in everyone gets excited about it.


In the process several things are cursorily tried but no expertise is developed in one type of trading style or setup.


If you look at the month gone by and do honest self appraisal you will find that some of you have spent the month doing this.


A trading idea or setup is just a idea and unless you think deeply about it and convert it in to process it does not become part of your procedural memory.


Your task as a trader is to develop procedural memory.


If you want to trade say breakout you need to develop procedural memory for trading it.


That would involve your ability to run the entire process involved in breakout trading like scanning, identifying good setup from scans, putting stop, determining position size, determining target, exiting, and so on.


This is all part of procedural memory development challenge.


Similarly if you want to trade a IBD method first you need to develop a process flow and follow it for months or years before you hit jackpot. Most IBD kind traders take 2 to 3 years before they start making big money.


Simpler process flow like momentum burst are easier to follow and offer you a ready made template. That is why there is so much focus on process orientation on members blog. Every setup has to have well designed process flow that is transparent and easy to follow. You will see that my daily posts are constant reminders of process flow.


Procedural memory only develops after a considerable amount of doing same thing again and again using same step by step process. By doing that you develop procedural memory which becomes permanent part of your memory.


If you constantly flirt from ideas to ideas you will never develop procedural memory.


Individual trades do not matter. Learn process flows. If you learn process flow you will be able to replicate a trade or understand what is involved in finding a trade.


Once you understand process flow you will be able to build your own process template and make it efficient.


Process orientation is extremely important for developing procedural memory. Procedural memory is a memory of a procedure. It is stored in your brain as one muscle sequence. In a flash the brain can then recall entire process.


Once you become process oriented the cognitive load will decrease. Follow traders and people here or anywhere else only if they are transparent about their process flow.


Developing procedural memory is the key to becoming successful trader. Procedural memory is built through repeated practice.


But before you get to repeated practice you should have right process. Else you become good at wrong process and then you need to erase those procedural memories and rebuilt right procedural memory.


Procedural memories are enduring memories and we do not forget procedural things easily.


If you learned to ride a bike as child it becomes permanent part of you. Same way once you develop a setup specific memories they become permanent part of you.


Most of the ideas you will see around you in trading are rehash of some few basic ideas like breakout, pullbacks, pivots, mean reversion, breadth, trend following, momentum, growth investing , value investing, contrarian investing .


Take any of these ideas and convert it in to process and trade it for months till it is part of your procedural memory. If you wake up in the middle of the night you should still be able to do the process blindly without thinking.


The way procedural memory works is by embedding a muscle or thinking sequence in your memory. A complex task involving say 25 steps is stored in procedural memory as one unit (schema) and when performing the task it is recalled in an instant.


The more you focus your effort on process flow and developing procedural memory you will realise much of challenge in trading is not about intellectual tasks and learning new things, but it is about finding a niche setup and perfecting it to a level where it becomes permanent part of you.


That is pretty mundane task.




For more info: Did you waste the month of January


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Trading, change-or-few, chase-the-new, flash-the-brain, good-at-wrong, king, learn, media, procedural, process, process-it-does, spent-the-month, twitter

sabato 1 febbraio 2014

Thinking Private School? Look beyond FAFSA.

Thinking Private School? Look beyond FAFSA.



This is the time of year when students and parents are running around the house, gathering financial information, receipts and pay stubs in order to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). While the need for an annual round of the FAFSA Tango is generally well known, there’s another financial aid application out there that more and more schools are using: The College Board’s CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE. Nearly 400 private colleges and universities require students to submit a CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE — I’m just going to call it “the CSS” from here on out — in order to determine non-federal aid eligibility. CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE Overview Schools that require students to file a CSS use the information they…



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year student schools professional process king financial aid federal current college personal finance


This is the time of year when students and parents are running around the house, gathering financial information, receipts and pay stubs in order to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). While the need for an annual round of the FAFSA Tango is generally well known, there’s another financial aid application out there that more and more schools are using: The College Board’s CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE. Nearly 400 private colleges and universities require students to submit a CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE — I’m just going to call it “the CSS” from here on out — in order to determine non-federal aid eligibility.


CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE Overview


Schools that require students to file a CSS use the information they gather to administer grants, scholarships and private loans. Because these types of aid funds tend to be more competitive — and therefore run out more quickly — the deadline for getting your CSS in to the school tends to come up sooner than that of the FAFSA. The deadlines vary by school, so be sure to ask if your school needs you to fill out a CSS and when it is due. Unlike the FAFSA, you can fill out and submit your CSS in the fall for the next academic year.


One more thing to keep in mind, particularly if you’re a prospective freshman applying to multiple schools, is that the CSS is not free (unlike FAFSA). The cost for submitting a CSS is $5 plus $18 for each school or scholarship program you send the CSS to. This is another argument for making a decision about where you’re attending school as early as possible.


CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE Tips


The CSS is available as an online application. Before you start, however, the College Board recommends you gather all the necessary information in order to make the process go more smoothly. Before you sit down at the computer, gather up:



  • Your current year federal income tax return(s), if completed;

  • Last year’s federal income tax return(s);

  • W-2 forms and other records of money earned last year;

  • Records of untaxed income and benefits for the last two tax years;

  • Current bank statements;

  • Current mortgage information;

  • Records of savings, stocks, bonds, trusts, and other investments;

  • In the case of divorced parents, the noncustodial parent’s email address.


While it’s usually a better bet to have your taxes filed before completing the CSS, the earlier deadlines and the need to get your application in early may not always make this a feasible option. You can always estimate your income using pay stubs, W-2s and last year’s taxes.


For students whose parents are divorced, the custodial parent should fill out the CSS. However, unlike colleges that look only at the FAFSA, schools that use the CSS may require additional financial information from the non-custodial parent. The CSS also requires a minimum financial contribution from the student, which is also a departure from FAFSA.


One thing that can work to students’ advantages is that the CSS leaves much more of the eligibility decisions to the professional judgment of the individual colleges’ financial aid administrators. This allows more leeway for you to describe your own specific financial situation and not simply be pegged as an EFC and left at that.


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Personal Finance, college, current, federal, financial aid, king, process, professional, schools, student, year

venerdì 24 gennaio 2014

Ask the Readers: How do you get past the money taboo?

Ask the Readers: How do you get past the money taboo?



This article is by editor Linda Vergon.Reading the comments on Kristin’s Wednesday post, Money lessons I’ve learned since writing for Get Rich Slowly, it’s very clear that being able to talk with family about money is as difficult as it is beneficial. And while we’ve discussed the topic before (Ask the Readers: How to talk to friends and family about money), it’s a big enough problem that updating it could be helpful.A 2012 survey by T. Rowe Price bears out the breadth of the problem. It determined that 28 percent of parents found it difficult to talk to their children about finances – and 29 percent of those surveyed said it was difficult to talk about puberty.A lot of you agreed with Kristin’s points that not talking …



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This article is by editor Linda Vergon.


Reading the comments on Kristin’s Wednesday post, Money lessons I’ve learned since writing for Get Rich Slowly, it’s very clear that being able to talk with family about money is as difficult as it is beneficial. And while we’ve discussed the topic before (Ask the Readers: How to talk to friends and family about money), it’s a big enough problem that updating it could be helpful.


A 2012 survey by T. Rowe Price bears out the breadth of the problem. It determined that 28 percent of parents found it difficult to talk to their children about finances – and 29 percent of those surveyed said it was difficult to talk about puberty.


A lot of you agreed with Kristin’s points that not talking about money promotes financial illiteracy and leads to spending more money. Some observed that cultural issues affect money discussions and that sometimes it is better not to divulge too much. Still, El Nerdo reminded us that taboos may have evolved for a reason but that not discussing money with children at all is “just wrong.”


Even as Kristin identified that “not talking about money creates conflict,” it seems that the opposite is also true – otherwise, why avoid the topic? So given how important it is to get the subject on the table, how do you actually go about it? Some of you offered solutions: Talk about percentages, principles, and strategies. Talk against debt, talk about the path to prosperity, but be discreet. I think we have to be prepared to meet people where they are, not where we are.


For instance, I asked the readers “Are you involved with your parents’ finances?” when I was in the process of helping my father change his living situation because it was becoming unsafe for him. As he and I started talking about the costs, I learned that he wanted to make the change but found it all too overwhelming to do on his own. What if the people we care about really want to get control of their finances but just find the whole process too daunting to begin?


Here’s a new direction: Should you adopt a different strategy to discuss money based on your relationship with the person, for example, whether they are your parent, your child, or other loved one?


Have you ever tried to talk to your adult children about their financial situation? Have you tried to influence friends or relatives to see the light? Share what worked, what didn’t, and how you got past the money taboo!


wednesday slowly process people linda king insurance financial children article adult personal finance



wednesday slowly process people linda king insurance financial children article adult personal finance

wednesday slowly process people linda king insurance financial children article adult personal finance

wednesday slowly process people linda king insurance financial children article adult personal finance


wednesday slowly process people linda king insurance financial children article adult personal finance wednesday slowly process people linda king insurance financial children article adult personal finance


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Personal Finance, adult, article, children, financial, insurance, king, linda, people, process, slowly, wednesday

mercoledì 15 gennaio 2014

FBI Investigates Banks After Whistleblower Exposes Traders Front …

FBI Investigates Banks After Whistleblower Exposes Traders Front …



It would appear that the government, via its mortgage-financing subs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is providing yet another $50 to $100 million fillip to banks – but this time at the expense of their ignorance. As Reuters reports, the FBI is investigating “unsophisticated tradecraft,” such as hand signals and special telephone ring tones, that some traders are conspiring to rig rates on large orders submitted by the GSEs – front running them in the interest rate swaps market. Of course, no one is surprised at yet another manipulation or malfeasance but the ‘high-level-employee’ whistleblower’s exposure is perhaps not surprising since the size of ‘hedging’ orders from the mortgage-managers provides an incentive for front-running ahead of the trades – “GSEs frequently submit large interest-…



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It would appear that the government, via its mortgage-financing subs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is providing yet another $50 to $100 million fillip to banks – but this time at the expense of their ignorance. As Reuters reports


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lunedì 13 gennaio 2014

Swing trading using momentum burst

Swing trading using momentum burst



Swing trading using momentum burst is a short term trading method that tries to capture slice of a trend or a short term burst move.The marked boxes in ABTL indicate the kind of trade we are looking for . It is a 3 to 5 days move. It is of 8 to 40% duration. First day of the move is range expansion move. In this particular example the 4% b/o signals start of the move.c/c1>=1.04 and v>v1 and v>100000Is a simple scan I have used for over 14 years to find range expansion. The idea behind the scan came in around 1999-2000.During that period I worked with someone doing finance PhD to look at every 25% plus kind of move in a month or …



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Swing trading using momentum burst is a short term trading method that tries to capture slice of a trend or a short term burst move.



trading trade swing setup process practical nature king company behind the scan anticipation abtl trading


The marked boxes in ABTL indicate the kind of trade we are looking for . It is a 3 to 5 days move. It is of 8 to 40% duration. First day of the move is range expansion move. In this particular example the 4% b/o signals start of the move.



c/c1>=1.04 and v>v1 and v>100000



Is a simple scan I have used for over 14 years to find range expansion. The idea behind the scan came in around 1999-2000.



During that period I worked with someone doing finance PhD to look at every 25% plus kind of move in a month or quarter for 40 years of data using Compustat database.. We looked at what was common in that move. We found almost every one of those moves had one or series of 4% plus move and in majority of the cases those 25% moves started with a 4% range expansion move.



Let us look at the first box on above stock. Move started with 4% breakout. Volume was significantly higher than volume in preceding 8 to 10 days. Prior to breakout day there was a narrow range day.



One of the minor negative on this stock was that it did not close near high. But we have to weigh number of factors together to select a good setup. And also in this case we are looking at this in hindsight. On day of breakout we did not know whether it will work or not.



In this case the first marked box resulted in 31% move in 5 days from the gap open. The second box move was 26% and third box setup was 39%. That is the nature of momentum burst moves in stocks.



This phenomenon of burst moves is not something you will see only in 2013, it has been in existence since market started.



Swing trading methods have evolved to capture such moves. Swing traders use either anticipation or reaction method to get in to such moves. Some buy ahead of the breakout in anticipation while some by on breakout day.



Both approaches work. Only the process flow differs and the profit targets differ. Anticipation requires more work but you get rewarded for that extra effort.



ABTL is just one example of this kind of swing moves and it is one of the better examples, but these momentum burst moves are minor variation of this basic move.



These kind of momentum bursts are traded based on just setup quality and the trader does not get involved with other aspects of the company like profit, valuation, insider buying , or any other variable.



In a year you will find anywhere between 1000 to 5000 such setups in the market. Practical consideration like your capital and how much you are invested in existing swing trades determine your ability to take all setup. For example currently I am 87% invested that will limit taking a new setup ill one of the existing position gets closed. That might mean letting many good setup go.



What can make you good at trading this setup?



Understanding of the setup logic. Your own discovery mechanism which clearly shows that this kind of setup has historically worked . Your ability to spend hours studying the guidelines I have provided to identify it (or developing your own guidelines after studying over 5000 to 10000 such past setups.



And above all developing a trading fluency where you can find these setups on your own. You can short list them on your own. You can enter the trade confidently on your own. You can confidently manage the trade through both good and bad times. You can exit the trade on your own. When you reach that stage you would have developed high self efficacy beliefs about trading the setup. And as we know self efficacy beliefs drive our behavior.



Methods like these can help you make money with very small drawdowns and that is why they have existed for hundreds of years.

Related post

How to Identify good momentum burst and make millions




For more info: Swing trading using momentum burst


stockbee



Swing trading using momentum burst


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mercoledì 1 gennaio 2014

Fill Out the FAFSA!

Fill Out the FAFSA!



Happy New Year! The holidays are over, and by now, high school seniors should have all their college applications in to their schools of interest for the 2013-2014 academic year. If you do, great. If not, what I am about to say may be less relevant but you should do it anyway: start filling out your Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). Now. Returning student? Cool. The holidays are over and you’re not going back to school for a few days. Fill out your FAFSA. Today. Are you a dependent student? Wonderful. Tell your parents to go online and start entering all their information into the FAFSA. Regardless of your status as a student, the federal government and whatever school you attend will require you (and…



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student process online major income holidays financial aid federal fafsa efc personal finance


Happy New Year! The holidays are over, and by now, high school seniors should have all their college applications in to their schools of interest for the 2013-2014 academic year. If you do, great. If not, what I am about to say may be less relevant but you should do it anyway: start filling out your Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). Now. Returning student? Cool. The holidays are over and you’re not going back to school for a few days. Fill out your FAFSA. Today. Are you a dependent student? Wonderful. Tell your parents to go online and start entering all their information into the FAFSA.


Regardless of your status as a student, the federal government and whatever school you attend will require you (and your parents) to submit a FAFSA before they can determine how much aid you qualify for. In the world of dwindling financial aid dollars, aid is doled out on a first-come, first-served basis. Moreover, with the ongoing budget battle in Congress and the threat of further sequestration in the offing, getting your application in and a qualification letter back in the next couple months may be a good thing.


I know it’s early in the year, and you may not have all the information you need, such as tax forms, but you can still use close estimates to get the FAFSA submitted and then amend your application once you have filed your 2012 tax returns. With decent estimates, your award level will be unaffected absent any real major changes or life events such as losing your major source of income or a divorce.


Getting an early jump can also help your school make decisions for school-based aid programs, such as foundation scholarships. Many scholarship programs have application deadlines in the spring. A school will not be able to determine eligibility for many scholarships, particularly those based on need, until a FAFSA has been submitted for the student. No FAFSA, no scholarship: it’s definitely a “you snooze, you lose situation.”


Starting the Process


If your parents (or you, if you are a parent yourself or what colleges so touchingly refer to as a “nontraditional” student) filled out FAFSAs when they went to college, they probably still have nightmares about those multipage blue and white forms that never seem to end. The bad news is that the FAFSA is no shorter today — in fact, with all the Patriot Act stuff, it may be longer than it was a decade or so ago. More positively, though, it is available online, and you can save it as you go. This means that if you need to take a break to dig up some information or stare out at a bird in a tree, you can do so without losing all your work. To begin the FAFSA, visit www.FAFSA.ed.gov and follow the link on the “Start a New Application” button.


If this is your first experience with the FAFSA, pay attention to the questions being asked and the information required. The information gathered from the FAFSA will be used to calculate the Expected Family Contribution (EFC) to your education. This figure is the foundation of what colleges use to decide how much they think you should pay out of pocket and how much aid you should be offered. The assets that are asked about on the FAFSA are given different weights in calculating the EFC. For example, checking and savings accounts or custodial accounts in the name of the student will be counted much more heavily “against” the EFC (i.e. you will be expected to pay more from such accounts) than if the same assets were held in the name of a parent or grandparent.


Tax year 2012 is in the books and there is not much you can do about your income or assets for the past year. However, you can use your experience with this year’s FAFSA as a learning opportunity. Take note of what you listed and disclosed and do some research on this and other sites (like FinAid) about how your assets and their characterization can serve to increase or decrease financial aid eligibility. Talk to your financial planner (but not necessarily anyone who charges to dole out financial aid-specific advice, as such advice is typically redundant to typical financial planning and represents an additional set of funds that won’t be used to pay for college) before you do anything to liquidate or recharacterize your assets, as sometimes the tax hit or costs involved are not worth the potential increase in aid eligibility.


Regardless of your current financial situation, if you think you will need financial aid for the 2013-2014 academic year, fill out your FAFSA now.


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For more info: Fill Out the FAFSA!


Affordable Schools Online



Fill Out the FAFSA!


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