Fed Aftermath Market Update and Stock Scan for October 30

At the end of QE3, stocks continued higher on the reported GDP growth and the S&P 500 tagged the underside of the 2,000 index target.

Let’s update our levels and note the top trending stocks so far in today’s post-Fed session:

After a logical sell-off from a knee-jerk reaction to yesterday’s “End of QE3″ announcement (see yesterday’s post), stocks traded higher and broke sharply higher on a Bull Flag pattern earlier this morning.

The result was a short-squeezed impulse toward the 2,000 index target, at which point the S&P 500 turned lower and traded into the 1,990 support confluence.

For now, we’re monitoring the neutral zone between 1,990 and 2,000 with a breakout above 2,000 setting the stage for a future rally to new all-time highs… or a move under 1,990 targeting the 1,980 or even 1,975 downside targets.

Sector Breadth (after the Fed) revealed another bullish picture:

The Defensive Sectors took the lead today with Energy – yesterday’s leader – becoming today’s laggard.

Still, we see relative strength across the board with almost all sectors reporting more than 70% of stocks positive.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

Bristol-Myers SQUIBB (BMY), AmeriSourceBergen (ABC), MasterCard (MA), and the big-winner Visa (V).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Avon Products (AVP), Intel (INTC), Ball Corp (BLL), and Trip Advisor (TRIP).

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

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Trading, Aftermath, market, October, Scan, stock, update

Quick Color Structure V-Spike Update Oct 28

Let’s take a quick glance at the “Color Structure” of the S&P 500 on the V-Spike Reversal into Resistance and chart possible price pathways from here.

We’ll start with the V-Spike Reversal Pattern on the intraday color chart:

We’re seeing the Color Structure grid which quantifies swings in the market (and impulsive phases like the purple area).

We have a green upswing into the prior resistance price cluster near 1,980 and we’re watching this level extremely closely.

In simplest terms, the market should be traded cautiously/bearishly on a swing down against 1,980 and otherwise continuously bullish for yet another breakout and short-squeeze trigger above 1,980 (it would target 2,000 on a breakout).

The bigger picture reveals the larger trend structure:

The same swing logic applies to the Daily Chart in a persistent uptrend.

We do note the first clear “Lower High” into October and we’re on guard against a sudden reversal and formation of a “Lower High.”

A Lower Low followed by a Lower High would be two steps in a larger Trend Reversal… but we’re not there yet.

For now, we note the potential turn-down into 1,980 and if price continues to break resistance levels as its been doing, then 2,000 is the next target followed by 2,020 and beyond as the uptrend continues.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

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New Lows into Support Market Update and Stock Scan Oct 13

At the halfway point today, we’re balancing the odds of another bullish reversal off support against the possibility of a continuation of the persistent selling pressure we’ve seen lately.

We’ll start with our chart of the S&P 500 for clues:

For additional commentary, see this morning’s update on “Planning Another Possible Intraday Reversal from Positive Divergences.”

The main idea is that we may see another repeat performance of what we saw October 8th when price touched a new low against “triple” positive market internal divergences.

There’s no guarantee price will once again rally higher but do focus on this potential bullish outcome.

The market would be an outright, aggressive short-sale under 1,900 again.

Sector Breadth reveals a Balanced Bullish perspective:

Sector Strength today concentrates in Financials and Utilities which sends a mixed (yet balanced) perspective.

We see no sector deviating from others except for Energy which is today’s weakest performer.

Aggressive traders may look for a reversal and to play bullish stocks into the close:

Southern Co (SO), Wisconsin Energy (WEC), Ameren Corp (AEE), and Apt Inv (AIV).

Otherwise, bearish candidates include the following downtrending intraday stocks:

AutoNation (AN), Noble Energy (NBL), QEP Resources (QEP) and Ebay.

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Trading, into, lows, market, Scan, stock, support, update

October 7 Stock Scanning and Market Update

Price continues its range between key boundary levels, making for relatively low volatility session into support.

Let’s start with our S&P 500 Chart then highlight the top trending stocks of the day:

Sellers ruled the immediate open this morning but buyers rushed to support the market and prevent a further sell-off by holding price up at the 1,950 index level.

The result is a short-term range pattern that continues as drawn, within the context of the broader Fibonacci Retracement Levels (see prior update).

We’re waiting for another “Repeat Pattern in the S&P 500″ or else a failure of this pattern which would likely set in motion a steep sell-off in shares.

Sector Breadth sends a bit of a conflicting signal with today’s sell-swing:

One would assume sector strength would develop in the Defensive Sectors like Staples, Health Care, and Utilities but clearly this is not the case today.

Our two strongest sectors are the offensive or bullish Technology and Industrial stocks – not what you want to see if you are a market bear.

In fact, our worst sector today is the defensive Staples stocks – again, not a bear’s delight.

We can focus our attention on today’s big trending (bullish) stocks:

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), CF Industries, Ameren (AEE), and Coca-Cola (KO).

Alternately, we can focus on bearish downtrending candidates:

Cummins (CMI), Black and Decker (SWK), Mastercard (MA), and Ametek (AME)

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Trading, market, October, Scanning, stock, update

October 6 Stock Scanning and Market Update

Today’s session has been a reversal range session between clear boundaries.

Let’s start with our S&P 500 Chart and highlight the top trending stocks of the day:

Price rallied up into the key inflection (target) near 1,980 and turned sharply lower after the opening gap.

However, price found support as buyers rushed to support the market at the 1,960 pivot, creating a “neutral” zone between 1,960 and 1,980.

A clean breakthrough impulse above 1,980 continues our “Repeat Pattern” outcome, which you can learn more about from our morning update post.

At the moment, let’s continue our practice of market neutrality (range) or else a bearish breakdown bias under 1,960 (or breakout/higher timeframe trend continuity trigger above 1,980).

Sector Breadth confirms the Neutral Stance:

All sectors remain muted today with similar performance across the sectors (roughly 30% to 40% of stocks in each sector are positive).

However, the big leader of today is Energy, and not much can be gleaned from the pattern except for neutral money flow.

We can focus our attention on today’s trending (bullish) stocks:

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Expedia (EXPE), Netflix (NFLX), and Abbott Labs (ABT).

Alternately, we can focus on bearish downtrending candidates:

Micron Tech (MU), Kohl’s (KSS), Pitney Bowes (PBI), and Priceline (PCLN).

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Trading, market, October, Scanning, stock, update

Bouncing Market Update and Trending Stock Scan for Sept 24

Right on schedule, price rallied up from a known support target level and we have yet another Trend Day in motion.

Start with this morning’s S&P 500 Support Bounce Rally post and let’s now take a look at our intraday update.

Let’s jump into today’s update with an update on the S&P 500:

Take a close look at the two recent S&P 500 updates so far from the week:

“Planning the Pullback in the US Stock Market”

“Support Range Bounce for the S&P 500″

With those in mind, we currently see the market rallying up – as was expected – from the 1,980 confluence target level as positive divergences further suggested higher odds for a rally.

How far may this rally continue? We’ll focus initial attention just shy of the 2,000 level and if price breaks through that target, we’ll extent upward resistance levels toward the 2,010 level again.

Sector Breadth confirms the bullish upswing:

Stealthily, the strongest sectors today are the defensive Staples and Health Care sectors (notice the weak performance from Energy and Utilities) while we see a strength cluster in the offensive group (Financials, Technology, etc).

So far, the message is mostly bullish but would be fully bullish were it not for the top performing Staples Sector today.

As I mentioned, not everything is bearish today – here are our bullish stock candidates for the session:

Chipotle (CMG), Hasbro (HAS), Biogen (BIIB), and Dupont (DD).

In addition to the bullish candidates, we have these bearish prospects:

Ensco (ESV), Chevron (CVX), FirstEnergy (FE), and Comerica (CMA).

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Trading, Bouncing, market, Scan, Sept, stock, trending, update

Creeper Trend Continues Intraday Update and Stock Scan Sept 23

Here we go again! The market continued its slide lower – as was widely expected – and so far is creating another trend day lower.

However, not all is bearish in the market, as seen from our intraday stock scan.

Let’s jump into today’s update with an update on the S&P 500:

I expanded more detail Monday’s “Planning the Pullback in the US Stock Market” so be sure to view the higher frame support/inflection level which broke – and price continued trading lower.

The failure to hold the 1,994 level resulted in a continuation of the ongoing sell-off, and now the index not only broke 1,990 but now trades into the 1,985 level.

Yes, there are positive momentum divergences, but we must continue to follow price during the “creeper” or steady sell-off as price continues its logical higher timeframe retracement.

Sector Breadth is not quite as remarkable as yesterday:

The picture is mixed, with today’s sector strength in the Technology and Energy sectors and relative weakness across the board (especially Financials and Staples).

As I mentioned, not everything is bearish today – here are our bullish stock candidates for the session:

CF Industries (CF), Patterson Companies (PDCO), Apple (AAPL), and Biogen (BIIB).

I posted on a triangle pattern in Apple shares yesterday, and price did break through the upper trendline to continue the trend.

If instead you believe the market will continue its sell-swing lower into the close, focus on these bear candidates:

CarMax (KMX), Medtronic (MDT), ADT Corp (ADT), and Northrup Grumman (NOC).

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://ift.tt/178Lhrq

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Trading, Continues, Creeper, intraday, Scan, Sept, stock, trend, update

New High Market Update and Stock Scan Sept 18

Perhaps not surprisingly, the stock market pushed yet again to another intraday high today as the non-stop bullish uptrend continued.

Let’s take a look at our current S&P 500 levels, Sector Breadth, and note the top trending stocks of the day:

Yesterday’s Fed Day simply spurred additional buying pressure into the market – initially from bulls/buyers and then from frustrated short-sellers (buying-back to cover losing positions) and the bullish money flow continued into today’s session.

Price has compressed distinctly around the 2,009/2,010 target level and we’ll be on guard for a breakout or price expansion from this key index level.

Not surprisingly, Sector Breadth is very Bullish:

Like yesterday, strength developed in the Offensive Sectors and we’re seeing that same pattern again during today’s bullish session.

Our strongest sectors are Technology with Health Care while relative strength still concentrates in the offensive names (like Financials and Industrials).

Our weakest sectors are the defensive/bearish Utilities and Energy (that’s also bullish).

Potential bullish trend day continuation (buy retracements) stocks include the following:

Dupont Denemours (DD – top spot for a second day in a row), CME Group (CME), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).

Today’s downtrending stock scan includes the following bearish candidates today:

Consol Energy (CNX), Peabody Energy (BTU), Dollar General (DG), and QEP Resources.

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://ift.tt/178Lhrq

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Trading, High, market, Scan, Sept, stock, update

September 5 Reversal Play and Market Update

The market has reversed course each day this week and today’s session is no exception.

Let’s update our rangebound S&P 500 intraday chart, highlight sector breadth, and end with our strongly trending stock scan of the day.

The S&P 500 has remained in a rather violent trading range the last few sessions as volatility has expanded (along with intraday range).

As mentioned, each session from the start of September has developed a sharp intraday reversal. Today’s session reversed up from the 1,990 level on divergences.

Study prior divergent reversal examples from the week.

For now, we’ll note the rising trendline into the 2,004 level and will continue to play bullishly above 2,005 (to ‘fill out the range’) or else will be cautious on any sudden movement down against 2,005.

Sector Breadth, while mixed, tilts bearish:

Our strongest sectors of the day are the Defensive Group which includes Staples, Health Care, and Utilities.

Our weakest sectors are the core of the Offensive Group including Financials, Discretionary, and Materials.

Despite mixed or even slightly bearish sector performance, we can focus on bullishly trending candidates:

Wal-Mart (WMT), Microsoft (MSFT), Nike (NKE), and Xcel Energy (XEL).

Bearish trending candidates – some with potential reversals – include these stocks:

Dollar General (DG), Goodyear Tire (GT), Regeneron (REGN), and Noble Corp (NE).

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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Trading, market, Play, Reversal, September, update