GOLD: Bouncing Off Support

In our article on September 23 we postulated that gold seemed to be setting up for a triple bottom, but it was too soon to tell for sure. As of this week gold has reached the level of support drawn from the two previous bottoms, and it has bounced off that support. It is not yet a robust bounce, but it is at least a first small sign that a long-term bottom may be forming. Let me first acknowledge that Erin’s article of yesterday focused on a similar possibility in the chart of a gold miner stocks ETF. While there is often a similarity between the charts of the metal and the mining stocks, the price of the mining stocks ultimately depends upon the direction of the metal, so we want to be sure that we are keeping track of gold at this critical juncture.

In the chart below we can see the three bottoms that have formed at about the 1180 level. The recent bottom is not very prominent, but it hints at the possibility of a continued rally, and shows a window of opportunity beginning to open for gold bulls. The negative part of this picture is that the support line is part of a consolidation that is called a continuation pattern, which implies that it is just a pause before the preceding decline continues.

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Bouncing Market Update and Trending Stock Scan for Sept 24

Right on schedule, price rallied up from a known support target level and we have yet another Trend Day in motion.

Start with this morning’s S&P 500 Support Bounce Rally post and let’s now take a look at our intraday update.

Let’s jump into today’s update with an update on the S&P 500:

Take a close look at the two recent S&P 500 updates so far from the week:

“Planning the Pullback in the US Stock Market”

“Support Range Bounce for the S&P 500″

With those in mind, we currently see the market rallying up – as was expected – from the 1,980 confluence target level as positive divergences further suggested higher odds for a rally.

How far may this rally continue? We’ll focus initial attention just shy of the 2,000 level and if price breaks through that target, we’ll extent upward resistance levels toward the 2,010 level again.

Sector Breadth confirms the bullish upswing:

Stealthily, the strongest sectors today are the defensive Staples and Health Care sectors (notice the weak performance from Energy and Utilities) while we see a strength cluster in the offensive group (Financials, Technology, etc).

So far, the message is mostly bullish but would be fully bullish were it not for the top performing Staples Sector today.

As I mentioned, not everything is bearish today – here are our bullish stock candidates for the session:

Chipotle (CMG), Hasbro (HAS), Biogen (BIIB), and Dupont (DD).

In addition to the bullish candidates, we have these bearish prospects:

Ensco (ESV), Chevron (CVX), FirstEnergy (FE), and Comerica (CMA).

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

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