Back to Back Outside Days for SPY

Thursday marked the 2nd day in a row that SPY posted an outside day. (An outside day is a day where the security or index makes a higher high and a lower low than the day before.) It’s quite unusual to see 2 consecutive outside days. I last examined back-to-back outside days for SPY in the 5/23/13 subscriber letter. I have updated that study below.The numbers look very impressive.It is also worth noting that this pattern has also done well with QQQ in the past.

via Quantifiable Edges:

Thursday marked the 2nd day in a row that SPY posted an outside day. (An outside day is a day where the security or index makes a higher high and a lower low than the day before.) It’s quite unusual to see 2 consecutive outside days. I last examined back-to-back outside days for SPY in the 5/23/13 subscriber letter. I have updated that study below.

The numbers look very impressive.

It is also worth noting that this pattern has also done well with QQQ in the past.

For more info: Back to Back Outside Days for SPY

Quantifiable Edges

Back to Back Outside Days for SPY

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A Turnaround Tuesday Setup

I’ve discussed many times in the past that Tuesdays have a well-earned reputation for being a day when the market will often halt a decline. The study below is one from the larger Turnaround Tuesday study published in the 9/25/12 blog. All statistics are updated. As you can see the market has strongly favored a quick move higher. And when that move hasn’t happened on Tuesday it has often happened in the next few days.

via Quantifiable Edges:

I’ve discussed many times in the past that Tuesdays have a well-earned reputation for being a day when the market will often halt a decline. The study below is one from the larger Turnaround Tuesday study published in the 9/25/12 blog. All statistics are updated.

As you can see the market has strongly favored a quick move higher. And when that move hasn’t happened on Tuesday it has often happened in the next few days.

For more info: A Turnaround Tuesday Setup

Quantifiable Edges

A Turnaround Tuesday Setup

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Some Evidence It Is About Time For SPY To Pull Back

SPY has now gone 11 days without closing below its 5ma, and it closed Tuesday at another new high. The study below is one I’ve shown a few times over the years, most recently in October. It looks at other instances in which SPY has traded above the 5ma for at least 2 weeks and is now closing at a 10-day high. All results are updated. In the past this setup has commonly been followed by a short-term pullback. The downside edge doesn’t last long, though. It seems to pretty much play itself out over the first 2 days. It is not an overwhelming edge, but it is still worth noting that SPY has been short-term extended for a while and the normal course of action at this …

via Quantifiable Edges:

SPY has now gone 11 days without closing below its 5ma, and it closed Tuesday at another new high. The study below is one I’ve shown a few times over the years, most recently in October. It looks at other instances in which SPY has traded above the 5ma for at least 2 weeks and is now closing at a 10-day high. All results are updated.

In the past this setup has commonly been followed by a short-term pullback. The downside edge doesn’t last long, though. It seems to pretty much play itself out over the first 2 days. It is not an overwhelming edge, but it is still worth noting that SPY has been short-term extended for a while and the normal course of action at this point is a little pullback.

For more info: Some Evidence It Is About Time For SPY To Pull Back

Quantifiable Edges

Some Evidence It Is About Time For SPY To Pull Back

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Should You Quit Trading Early Today?

The table below is from a study I showed in last night’s subscriber letter. It shows how SPY has performed every year, during the last 15 minutes of trading for the year. On average SPY has lost 0.25% in the last 15 minutes of trading. And if you just look at the losers, the average loss was 0.345%. Last year was the 1 big up year (excitement over avoiding the Fiscal Cliff?). If you are a daytrader with a long position, this might be a good day to close up shop 15 minutes early…

via Quantifiable Edges:

The table below is from a study I showed in last night’s subscriber letter. It shows how SPY has performed every year, during the last 15 minutes of trading for the year.

On average SPY has lost 0.25% in the last 15 minutes of trading. And if you just look at the losers, the average loss was 0.345%. Last year was the 1 big up year (excitement over avoiding the Fiscal Cliff?). If you are a daytrader with a long position, this might be a good day to close up shop 15 minutes early…

For more info: Should You Quit Trading Early Today?

Quantifiable Edges

Should You Quit Trading Early Today?

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‘Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas (updated Nasdaq version)

I’ve been posting and updating the “Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas” study on the blog here since 2008. The study will kick in at today’s close. This year I will again show the Nasdaq version of the study. While all the major indices have performed well during this period, the Nasdaq Composite stands out as the big winner. The stats in this table are strong across the board, and the note at the bottom shows reliability that has been nothing short of incredible. Traders may want to keep this one in mind over the next couple of weeks.

via Quantifiable Edges:

I’ve been posting and updating the “Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas” study on the blog here since 2008. The study will kick in at today’s close. This year I will again show the Nasdaq version of the study. While all the major indices have performed well during this period, the Nasdaq Composite stands out as the big winner.

The stats in this table are strong across the board, and the note at the bottom shows reliability that has been nothing short of incredible. Traders may want to keep this one in mind over the next couple of weeks.

For more info: ‘Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas (updated Nasdaq version)

Quantifiable Edges

‘Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas (updated Nasdaq version)

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SPY Registers 1st 5-day Low In A While – Now What?

Thursday the SPY managed to close at a 5-day low after 16 days without doing so. This triggered the study below, which I last showed on the blog May 25th. Results here suggest a moderate upside edge. As I have said before, persistent uptrends normally wither before they die. They rarely just turn on a dime. It appears unlikely that SPY will be faced with a lot more selling before it manages to bounce.

via Quantifiable Edges:

Thursday the SPY managed to close at a 5-day low after 16 days without doing so. This triggered the study below, which I last showed on the blog May 25th.

Results here suggest a moderate upside edge. As I have said before, persistent uptrends normally wither before they die. They rarely just turn on a dime. It appears unlikely that SPY will be faced with a lot more selling before it manages to bounce.

For more info: SPY Registers 1st 5-day Low In A While – Now What?

Quantifiable Edges

SPY Registers 1st 5-day Low In A While – Now What?

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Uh-Oh, Low VXO (Revisted)

Both the VIX and VXO (which is the old calculation for the VIX) closed well below their 10-day average for the 3rd day in a row on Friday. This action in VXO triggered a study that I last discussed here on the blog on January 7, 2013. The January instance followed the fiscal cliff deal at the end of last year, which was similar to the recent shutdown/debt ceiling debate. The study looks for stretches of 15% or more below the 10ma that have persisted for three days. Based on the stats table there appears to be a downside inclination. I find the note at the bottom of the study to be especially interesting. Nearly every case has experienced an almost immediate pullback, but those that didn’t went …

via Quantifiable Edges:

Both the VIX and VXO (which is the old calculation for the VIX) closed well below their 10-day average for the 3rd day in a row on Friday. This action in VXO triggered a study that I last discussed here on the blog on January 7, 2013. The January instance followed the fiscal cliff deal at the end of last year, which was similar to the recent shutdown/debt ceiling debate. The study looks for stretches of 15% or more below the 10ma that have persisted for three days.

Based on the stats table there appears to be a downside inclination. I find the note at the bottom of the study to be especially interesting. Nearly every case has experienced an almost immediate pullback, but those that didn’t went without pulling back for a long time.

For more info: Uh-Oh, Low VXO (Revisted)

Quantifiable Edges

Uh-Oh, Low VXO (Revisted)

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