Week in FX Europe – German Growth Concerns Rise As European Engine Stalls

• German ZEW Drops into Negative Territory


• UK Inflation drops to 1.5%


• BoE Chief Economist gloomier about UK Economy

Germany’s ZEW Institute released its monthly survey falling into negative territory. The financial analysts who participate are not optimistic and could hint an upcoming contraction in the third quarter. The EUR/USD was trading below 1.27 and expected to head lower awaiting US retail sales. What happened next could very well define what colour ink do investors use to describe 2014. A weaker than expected US retail sales figures spooked investors into a sell off that saw the EUR/USD pair break above 1.28 as safe haven flows took over and European bond yields went their own way. German bunds were favoured, but Spanish, Italian and Greek debt came very close to crisis levels.

It took strong corporate earnings and strong US employment and housing data to reverse the trend before the end of the week. Questions remain about how deep is the economic malaise in Germany. There is no denying that the economic fundamentals of the nation are strong, but as it faces a stand off with the rest of Europe over austerity, it is hard to see how Europe as a whole can break away from stagnation.

The Bank of England was proving the be the only central bank that could be counted along with the US Federal Reserve for a possible rate hike in 2014. Now that seems to be out of the table as global economic conditions have worsened and growth forecasts cut. The UK inflation fell to 1.2%, a five year low, making very unlikely that the BOE will raise rates this year. To make the matter more clear the Bank’s Chief Economist is saying he has changed his mind on when to hike. He described a “gloomier” outlook on the economy given the latest inflation figures. A Reuters poll still finds high probability of a first quarter hike next year amongst analysts.

Next week in Europe

The drop in US retail sales along other geopolitical events trigged a wave of uncertainty across the globe. Stock markets and emerging market currencies were the biggest losers as the US economy was thought to be slowing down. The last two days of the week calmed investor’s nerves as earning reports were solid as well as housing and employment indicators out of the US.

Next week has two major trends: Central banks and PMIs. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its minutes on Tuesday. The Bank of England will also release the minutes from its rate setting meeting two weeks ago on Wednesday . Given that the BOE’s chief economist has cooled expectations of a rate hike this year there will be little surprise in the minutes. The Bank of Canada will announce its benchmark rate. No change is expected given the mixed economic data and employment data confusion.

The flash manufacturing purchasing manager’s index PMI is a survey of manager to gauge their optimism regarding business conditions going forward. HSBC for China and Markit for the rest of the world are the firms that have compiled the early draft of the data and will release it starting with China and the schedule will move around the world given insights into the state of the global economy.

Fore more market moving events visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar

WEEK AHEAD

* CNY Gross Domestic Product

* AUD Consumer Prices Index

* GBP BOE Minutes

* USD Consumer Price Index

* CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision

* CNY Flash PMI

* EUR French, Spanish, German and European Flash PMIs

* USD US Flash PMI

* NZD Consumer Prices Index

* GBP Gross Domestic Product

MarketPulse

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Trader Chat January 30 – Business Insider

Margin Call Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus passes along the top topics about which clients are talking about today. Good Morning! US Futures are meandering along what many hope is the “Floor”, the 100dma in the E-minis, as they gain 30bp. Nasdaq Futures fare better on the back of Earnings – adding 40bp, and remain almost 3% above their 100dma. Bear markets close higher than where they opened. Thus far in 2014, the SPX has closed below our opening 12 times, and above 7. Euro markets are slightly red, with the DAX off 30bp (had been off 1%), and some periphery countries nearing unchanged. Over in Asia, The Nikkei was hit for 2.5% on a surging Yen and their Retail Sales print light ahead of heavy data tonight, while …

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traders in front of bloomberg terminal. Margin Call. Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus passes along the top topics about which clients are talking about today. Good Morning! US Futures are meandering along what many hope is the …

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Trader Chat January 30 – Business Insider

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Study Abroad, Save On Tuition

While students can choose many strategies to reduce the cost of attending college, from credit by exam to attending community college, it may not make enough of a difference in the economic climate of today’s higher education landscape. It may be that simply walking away from the choices we’re given and seeking new opportunities elsewhere may be a prudent path to take. According to a Reuters report, Patrick Finger, a high school senior from Southern California, did just that. He applied to a dozen or so colleges this year, including several state schools. In the end, he chose a less conventional path, opting to perfect his German language skills over the next year and then enroll at the University of Cologne. Tuition at German universities…

via Affordable Schools Online:

While students can choose many strategies to reduce the cost of attending college, from credit by exam to attending community college, it may not make enough of a difference in the economic climate of today’s higher education landscape. It may be that simply walking away from the choices we’re given and seeking new opportunities elsewhere may be a prudent path to take.

According to a Reuters report, Patrick Finger, a high school senior from Southern California, did just that. He applied to a dozen or so colleges this year, including several state schools. In the end, he chose a less conventional path, opting to perfect his German language skills over the next year and then enroll at the University of Cologne. Tuition at German universities proved irresistible—it’s free.

“State campuses here can cost as much as $35,000 per year and private colleges more,” Finger told Reuters. Even with the extra year of study plus living and travel expenses, the 18-year-old recognizes a bargain when he sees one. He estimates his total expenses in Germany will amount to what he would spend in less than one year in the United States. “My family doesn’t believe in graduating with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt.”

Finger isn’t alone. Shaving thousands of dollars off their tuition bills is a prime motivation for a growing number of American students to study abroad.

About 46,000 US scholars—or 4 percent more than in 2011—are enrolled in full-degree programs outside the country, according to a report that will be released in May by the Institute of International Education’s Project Atlas.

Nearly three-quarters are studying in English-speaking countries, such as the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. Germany and France are also popular destinations, but countries such as China, India, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates are increasingly on students’ radar.

“The world is getting smaller, and going abroad just isn’t as daunting for students and their families,” says Gavin Bradley, head college counselor at Atlanta’s Pace Academy, which currently has four students enrolled at Scotland’s St. Andrew’s University. Plus, he adds, “You can often attend a higher-quality school at a lower price.”

Foreign universities are also wooing American recruits. For example, Bradley says, college fairs now often host booths for schools from across Europe, Asia, and Canada, many of which have recruiters visit top high schools or have set up US-based offices. Other nations, such as Denmark, Spain or Japan, have dedicated staff for easing the transition for American students, including financial aid workshops.

Many non-Anglophone nations have rapidly increased the number of courses and full-degree programs offered in English, more than doubling over the past five years. The continental European Union hosts about 6,000, while Germany alone has more than 1,000.

International students frequently pay more than local classmates, but tuition and fees are still generally well below American norms. Australia and China, among others, offer specific scholarships for foreign students, and Canada allows them to work off-campus.

Most importantly, some US financial aid programs can still be tapped if the host school has the code used to administer federal financial aid programs. This includes most Canadian colleges and universities.

To be sure, for students considering a foreign school, there are some important differences to consider.

For one, while foreign universities increasingly accept the Common Application so popular in the United States, applicants often need to apply directly to an academic department, requiring them to choose a major before going into college. That is, for example, if you want to study philosophy, philosophy professors will review your application.

Programs usually last only three years, and law and medical degrees (for undergraduates) are often among the options. Grades plus AP and SAT scores are the main criteria for admission, rather than being the well-rounded student American campuses tend to want.

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Study Abroad, Save On Tuition

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