Visualizzazione post con etichetta episodic. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta episodic. Mostra tutti i post

martedì 18 marzo 2014

Game changing catalyst offer explosive opportunity

Game changing catalyst offer explosive opportunity



On a daily basis many stocks go up on news. Not all of the news is worth paying attention to. But a special kind of news can help you find explosive move.Game changing catalyst news fundamentally change the market participants view about the company and trigger a multi month or year rally. The objective of finding game changing catalyst stock is to find a stock that will increase your overall account by 15 to 20% in one trade. Which essentially means the stock should be capable of big move and you should risk sufficiently big on it.Look for a game changing earnings surprise announced after hours or before market open. For this look at pre market gainers and last night after close gainers.You want to …



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On a daily basis many stocks go up on news. Not all of the news is worth paying attention to. But a special kind of news can help you find explosive move.


Game changing catalyst news fundamentally change the market participants view about the company and trigger a multi month or year rally.


The objective of finding game changing catalyst stock is to find a stock that will increase your overall account by 15 to 20% in one trade. Which essentially means the stock should be capable of big move and you should risk sufficiently big on it.


Look for a game changing earnings surprise announced after hours or before market open. For this look at pre market gainers and last night after close gainers.


You want to see stock with neglect, that has significant first or second earnings surprise. If such surprise happens right at the beginning of a new rally then the move can last for weeks or months and the magnitude of move can be 50% to at times 1000% plus.


Big game changing catalyst kind of moves are Episodic Pivots that change the existing Wall Street perception about a company’s business and as a consequence its future price potential.


Earnings related Episodic Pivots are the most common and happen frequently. But they are not the only EP , biotech sector has its own kind of EP. Biotech move based on drug trial data. A loss making biotech can go up a lot on “potential” of drug approval which might or might not happen after many years.


Loss making technology companies also can at times go up based on future potential or sector moves. This tends to happen in later stages of bull moves.


From a practical process point of view focusing bulk of effort on earnings EP is good strategy as they are easier to understand.


The easiest way to find game changers is by running a volume expansion scan in Telechart and then research stocks to find out what triggered such big buying or selling.


In a day you do not get many stocks with huge volume surge and also up big. The few that do are worth examining in detail and if they have several months of neglect they offer best opportunities.



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Game changing catalyst offer explosive opportunity


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Trading, biotech, company, count, episodic, episodic-pivots, market, means-the-stock, month-or-year, street, telechart, weeks-or-months

venerdì 31 gennaio 2014

Big moves need big surprises

Big moves need big surprises



Last night Facebook (FB) earnings were released and the stock was up double digit in after hours and is likely to open up 18% from yesterday. Earnings surprise lead to this move.FB is a stock that had big earnings surprise in August 2013. We bought it in Working People Portfolio on the earnings breakout. Subsequently added January 70 strike 2015 LEAPS to the position. The position is still open in Working People portfolio.Working People Portfolio Open PositionsWhile on day to day basis I look for short term swing moves of 8 to 20%, I also look for big trades that can make the year.Finding big moves like this requires different kind of skill.Stocks need no catalyst or just a minor catalyst to make 8 to 40% move. Such…



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Last night Facebook (FB) earnings were released and the stock was up double digit in after hours and is likely to open up 18% from yesterday. Earnings surprise lead to this move.


FB is a stock that had big earnings surprise in August 2013. We bought it in Working People Portfolio on the earnings breakout. Subsequently added January 70 strike 2015 LEAPS to the position. The position is still open in Working People portfolio.




Working People Portfolio Open Positions



While on day to day basis I look for short term swing moves of 8 to 20%, I also look for big trades that can make the year.


Finding big moves like this requires different kind of skill.


Stocks need no catalyst or just a minor catalyst to make 8 to 40% move. Such momentum burst require no special skills to trade once you understand the basic mechanics of swing trading.


Trading big moves requires understanding of catalyst and growth investing . Most big moves start with a big surprise.


When a stock makes 100 to 1000 % move , there is always an identifiable catalyst behind these moves.

Most common catalyst that can lead to explosive multi quarter or multi year moves are:



  1. big Earnings growth

  2. big Sales growth

  3. big orders

  4. big shortages (especially in commodities sector)

  5. big govt policy changes

  6. drug trial or approval news in drugs/biotech sector

  7. big management change

  8. big turnaround in business

  9. big activist investor move

  10. big sector move


These kind of big moves in stock are precipitated by some sort of an Episodic Pivot. Episodic Pivots are significant events in the lifecycle of a stock that results in significant re evaluation of the future prospect of the stock. If you search this site you will find detailed discussion on how I daily look for such Episodic Pivots in systematic fashion.

If you want to find big moves like FB right at the start of their move look for big surprises daily. One or two trades like these can make your year.



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Big moves need big surprises


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Trading, earnings, episodic, make-the-year, management, momentum, portfolio-open, positions, positionswhile, systematic