sabato 25 gennaio 2014

Week in FX Europe – Contagion, contagion, contagion!

It been awhile since we have used this word, however, capital market seems to have decided they want to dust it off and bring it back. Expect this word to be used more in defense of last weeks late market meltdown. Many have been hesitant to use the word to describe both Thursday’s and Friday’s market moves. Why? The word typically refers to a financial shock in a vulnerable country that spills over into previously healthy economy. And that is what is happening – almost all emerging market currencies are falling against the dollar – and investors are worried about the domino effect. If the sell off escalates, similar to last August and September in Asia, then the compounding effect will be similar – the masses will run hard to the exits.

All of this is occurring only one day after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its revised global growth forecasts. IMF chief, Christine Lagarde, and her crew raised growth estimates for Japan, Europe, and the U.S., but reduced them for Latin America and Russia. Growth in the developed world is stabilizing, but not so in emerging markets. It seems that the gears of the global economy are shifting, and they are increasingly shifting toward instability in the developing economies.

Investors have taken cash from emerging Asian stock and bond funds for the eighth consecutive week as of January 22 according to EPFA data. A total of $1.4-billion left funds, more than twice the $671-million of the previous week.

Spain Unemployment Rate Remains at 26 Percent

BoE Decouples Rates From Job Recovery

France Continues to Struggle Flash PMI Continues To Drop

Silvio Berlusconi Target of New Investigation on Corruption Charges

Italian Finance Minister Says Economy is Recovering but Jobs Lagging

Carney Hints End of Forward Guidance

UK Advice to Europe Repatriate Jobs

Euro Gets a Boost From Positive PMIs

BoE Policy Maker Warns Interest Rate Hike Would Hurt Recovery

Don’t Expect Europe To Fly Even Though Recession May Be Over

UK Unemployment Falls to 7.1 Percent

George Soros to Open Health and Legal Aid Centres in Greece

UK Manufacturing Rises in January

Greek 2012 Deal Architect Says Greek Crisis is Off The Table

The Different Faces of Youth Unemployment Europe

German Regulators to Visit Deutsche London Office

Number of Jobs Available In London Fell By 42%

London House Prices Slowing Down

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Gross Domestic Product

* USD Durable Goods Orders

* USD Consumer Confidence

* USD Fed QE3 Pace

* USD FOMC Rate Decision

* NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision

* EUR German Unemployment Rate

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* USD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Personal Consumption

* JPY National Consumer Price Index

* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

* CAD Gross Domestic Product

* CNY Manufacturing PMI