giovedì 2 ottobre 2014

ECB to Announce Plans to Revive Europe

The European Central Bank will present details on Thursday of a new asset-buying plan with which it hopes to revive the flagging euro zone economy and see off the specter of deflation.


The ECB plans to buy asset-backed securities (ABS) – packages of reparcelled loans – with a view to spurring the market for such credit and supporting lending to the small- and mid-sized firms that form the backbone of the euro zone economy.


But for the plan to apply across the bloc, the central bank may need to buy ABS paper below the standard it usually requires for collateral offered up by those tapping its funding operations.


CNBC





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mercoledì 1 ottobre 2014

Distinguishing Between Luck and Hard Work

You know those moments that happen in life where you wish you had the right words at that moment, but instead they come to you days later? I’m about to tell you about one of those times.


An old friend of mine – we’ll call him Jeffrey – has struggled throughout his adulthood with, well, many aspects of adult life. He’s struggled with maintaining a steady job. He’s struggled with alcohol dependence and substance abuse. He’s struggled with parenthood, too.


He has an older sibling – we’ll call him Will – that has done reasonably well with his life. This older sibling has a challenging but well-paying job and two children that are on solid professional tracks.


Whenever Jeffrey is feeling down on his luck, he’ll often go on a drinking binge and find someplace to hide out for a while. If you try to talk to him, you’ll hear the same few refrains over and over.


“Will gets all of the breaks in life. He gets all of the luck and I get nothing.”


“It doesn’t matter what I do. I can’t get ahead.”


“No one respects me.”


“I’m just going to be broke for the rest of my life. People who have money are just lucky.”


During those moments, the people who care for Jeffrey mostly just try to get him to sleep it off. They’ll listen to him for a while and then try to convince him to go to bed or to drink a bunch of coffee or do something else.


When a few days pass and Jeffrey’s complaints are considered, though, it becomes quickly clear how much of a farce they are.


Here’s the reality.


His older brother Will goes to work almost every day at a very challenging job. While I can’t speak firsthand about what it’s like, I know enough about it that I would dread going into work each day and even if I loved it I would find it challenging.


Not only that, Will spends his spare time cultivating side gigs. He has a mowing business and he also works as a farmhand during the peak of the harvest season. Will spends sixty hours a week (or more) working.


I respect that. A lot of people do. It’s pretty hard not to have some respect for someone who busts their tail every day to put food on the table for their family and ensure that their kids have the things they need and at least some opportunities after graduating from high school.


Will is not lucky. Will is a hard worker. Period.


At a quick glance, a person might perceive Will as lucky because of his family and because he has a nice car and a nice house. Behind the curtain, though, it’s clear that Will’s success in life is the result of a lot of hard work.


I identify with Will in that respect. I built The Simple Dollar from scratch while also working a full time research job. I usually have several side gigs going at any given time to earn additional money.


Nothing good in my life would have happened without a lot of hard work. Period.


Don’t get me wrong, luck does play a role. There are always uncertain events in life. Sometimes they’ll benefit you and sometimes they’ll work against you.


Having said that, hard work can overcome a lot of bad luck and it attracts good luck. It also amplifies the effect of any good luck that comes your way.


A person who is always trying to do a good job at work is going to be noticed by their supervisors and when it comes time for layoffs, that good worker is going to be one of the ones that’s kept. When it’s time for a promotion, the hard worker that does a good job of encouraging everyone else to keep it up is going to be eyed for that better job. The presence of that pink slip and that promotion might be luck, but keeping away the pink slip and attracting the promotion are the result of hard work.


A person who invests a lot of hours building a side business is going to have extra money in their pocket. When they need something (or when they want something), they’re going to have the cash for it. A person who comes home from work and doesn’t bother to keep working to improve themselves simply isn’t going to have access to that additional money. The difference is hard work, not luck.


In the end, I don’t really believe in “luck” at all, at least not in the sense of our lives being run by forces outside of our control.


Life is full of uncertain events, of course. Some of those events are positive and some are negative, and sometimes bad things can happen to hardworking people.


However, a person who works hard is going to actively reduce their chances of bad “luck” and actively increase their chances of good “luck.” The harder worker is likely to earn more money and have more professional support than the person who doesn’t work hard.


Mindset also plays a role in this.


Everyone has good and bad things in their life. I’ll use myself as an example instead of Jeffrey and Will here (as they don’t need to be exposed to the world any more than they already have in this article).


I was born with extremely limited vision in my right eye. I basically can’t see anything out of it other than vague colors and shapes. I am completely deaf in my left ear. I was born with an inactive thyroid gland for which I’ve had to take medication since I was three days old and which has a number of minor but unenjoyable consequences for my life.


I could easily hang my hat on these things and use them as reasons for why I am “unlucky” and why I can’t get ahead in life. In fact, in my weaker moments, I do that sometimes.


At the same time, though, I am blessed with a quick mind and a reasonably good work ethic. I have a wife and a number of friends and family that genuinely care about me. I can smell the flowers, hear my daughter’s singing voice, feel the warm sunlight on my skin, see my wife’s beautiful smile, and taste the wonderful flavor of a freshly-picked apple. I am blessed with a ton of things that many people in the world do not have.


It’s always up to me to decide which of those things to focus on. Do I focus on the fact that I have to tilt my head in conversation and constantly ask people to repeat things and use that as an excuse for failure? Or do I think about the fact that I’m good at solving problems and use that as a reason to work hard and succeed?


That decision is a fundamental one and it’s entirely up to me to make it. Countless good consequences and bad consequences in my life follow from that fundamental choice.


Do I choose to work hard and have the unpredictable events in life swing in my favor? Or do I choose to give up and blame others and let the unpredictable events in life push against me?


I will always choose the first one. Without that choice, personal finance success and career success become practically impossible.


So, what would I have said to Jeffrey if I had the chance to talk to him?


“Will gets all of the breaks in life. He gets all of the luck and I get nothing.”


Will works sixty hours a week. He doesn’t get all the breaks in life. He earns them.


“It doesn’t matter what I do. I can’t get ahead.”


Just like Will, you have the choice to work… and you have the choice to blame others and drown your sorrows in a bottle. Every time you make a choice like that, you’re deciding what kind of luck you’re going to have in the future. Choosing to work means choosing better “luck;” choosing to blame and complain means choosing worse “luck.” You have that choice countless times each day, so it certainly does matter what you do. You can’t blame others for the choices you make.


“No one respects me.”


People respect – and don’t respect – the outcome of those choices you make every single day. If you want the respect of others, make the challenging choice and make it regularly. Choose to go to work. Choose to do the best job you can do there. Choose to spend your spare time building up a side gig or two to earn some more cash. Choose to not drink.


Make those choices over and over and people will respect you. You’ve got to earn that respect with lots of tough but positive choices.


“I’m just going to be broke for the rest of my life. People who have money are just lucky.”


When you choose not to work, you choose to be broke. When you choose to drown your sorrows instead of busting your tail, you choose to be broke. When you choose to work hard and do the best you can at your job, even if it’s hard, you choose to have money in your pocket. When you choose to spend your spare time working even more, you choose to have money in your pocket.


It’s your choice. Luck has nothing to do with it.


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Caig Ball: “Dem Phones, Dem Phones, Dem iPhones”

Jim Calloway’s Law Practice Tips Blog


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Why study breadth

If you want lower drawdowns

If you want to maintain sanity


If you want to anticipate turns


If you don’t want to panic at wrong time


If you don’t want to ride roller coaster of profit and blowups


If you want to make money in retirement account and keep the gains.


Few weeks spent understanding breadth will pay you lifetime dividend.


Good thing about breadth is:


You don’t need to be Market Wizard to understand it.


Once you understand the concept you can just using simple scans or using existing resources look at breadth trends daily and take decision.


It does not take more than few minutes to do it.


Start tracking breadth daily and it will start making sense as you would start questioning why is this number going up or down.


Why is this number so big or small…


and so on.


It will put you on path to profitability.


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Financial Market Forecast for September 29- October 3

The weakness in the bullion market and the recovery of US dollar continued last week. This week, we have a lot of news items that could push around the foreign exchange and commodities markets. In the U.S we have the…



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Gold Remains Weak, Pressing on Support at $1200

Gold prices are showing little change on Wednesday, as the metal remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. In the European session, the spot price stands at $ 1208.93 per ounce. There are two key releases on the calendar – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI. The markets are not expecting significant changes from last month’s readings.


Recent sharp gains by the US dollar are weighing on gold prices, as a stronger dollar diminishes the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset to the dollar. The dollar has enjoyed a spectacular September, and gold prices have tumbled over 6% during this period. With the Fed scheduled to wind up QE and attention shifting to the timing of an interest rate hike, gold could continue to move lower.


The markets are keeping a close eye upcoming US employment numbers, starting with ADP Nonfarm Payrolls later on Wednesday. The estimate stands at 207 thousand, little changed from 204 thousand. The ADP release precedes the official NFP release which will be published on Friday. The markets are anticipating a sharp gain, with an estimate of 216 thousand. If the indicator does follow suit with better numbers this month, the US dollar could post further gains against its major rivals.


US Pending Home Sales posted a decline of 1.0%, compared to last month’s gain of 3.3%. The important housing indicator has shown strong movement, resulting in readings that have been well off market estimates. US housing indicators continue to paint a mixed picture, as New Home Sales jumped last month, while Existing Home Sales softened and was well short of expectations.


XAU/USD for Wednesday, October 1, 2014



XAU/USD October 1 at 10:45 GMT


XAU/USD 1209.18 H: 1209.94 L: 1204.66


XAU/USD Technical





















S3S2S1R1R2R3
113611561186121512401252


  • XAU/USD has been uneventful in the European and Asian sessions.

  • 11186 remains an immediate support level. 1156 is next.

  • 1215 is providing weak resistance. 1240 is stronger.

  • Current range: 1186 to 1215.


Further levels in both directions:



  • Below: 1186, 1156, 1136 and 1101

  • Above: 1215, 1240, 1252, 1275 and 1300


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio


XAU/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Wednesday trade. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold is showing little movement. Trader sentiment is strongly in favor of long positions, which make up most of the positions in the ratio.


XAU/USD Fundamentals



  • 12:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 207K.

  • 13:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.0 points.

  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.6 points.

  • 14:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.5%.

  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 56.8 points.

  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.6M.

  • All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 16.9M.


*Key releases are highlighted in bold


*All release times are GMT


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.






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How to Stop Making Bad Fade Trades

One talented developing trader we work with is struggling with making poor fade trades and controlling his risk. I know many in the trading community struggle with poor fade trades and losing too much in lesser trades. The exchange between this trader, his solutions, and my response might be able to help. After a huge rip and then bounce back day he wrote: Needed a good bounce back / confidence booster day today. I find that these 1500-2k+ days are coming easier and easier which gives me confidence..I talked to Steve and he gave me some really good advice on Friday that i think will help me plug this fading leak. He said Read more [...]

SMB Capital – Trading Education


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