GBP Rises After Strong UK PMI

via MarketPulse:

The pound has hit a near five-year high against the dollar after a survey suggested that UK manufacturing grew faster than expected in April.

Sterling hit $1.6921, before falling back to $1.6906, and against the euro it rose 0.1% to 1.2184 euros.

The gains came after the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up to 57.3 from a revised 55.8 in March.

A figure above 50 indicates expansion, and economists had expected 55.4.

The PMI figure, the highest for five months, maintained the sector’s “robust start to the year”, CIPS said.

“Growth improved across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors, as companies responded to rising new order inflows, new product launches and efforts to clear backlogs of work,” it added.

Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said the survey suggested that manufacturers were creating jobs at a pace of about 10,000 a month at present, with employment in the sector expanding for the 12th month in a row.

via BBC

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 24, 2014

Show full picture Show full picture On April 15, the bulls were concentrated around 1.6666. They provided significant support on the last pull-back resulting in a bullish reversal Hammer daily candlestick. Shortly after, a consolidation zone was established between 1.6767-1.6830. The bulls couldn’t show enough follow up around 1.6850. Instead, a sideway movement is taking place. The GBP/USD pair looks bearish on the short-term prospective. Breakdown of 1.6767 opens the way towards 1.6700 and 1.6660. On the other hand, price zone of 1.6830-1.6850 should be considered for selling as long as the bulls can’t achieve the daily closure above it. Mohamed Samy is taking part in the “Analyst of the Year” award organized by MT5.com portal. If you like his article, please vote for him. Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expertInstaForex…

via Forex analysis review:

On April 15, the bulls were concentrated around 1.6666. They provided significant support on the last pull-back resulting in a bullish reversal Hammer daily candlestick.

Shortly after, a consolidation zone was established between 1.6767-1.6830. The bulls couldn’t show enough follow up around 1.6850. Instead, a sideway movement is taking place.

The GBP/USD pair looks bearish on the short-term prospective. Breakdown of 1.6767 opens the way towards 1.6700 and 1.6660.

On the other hand, price zone of 1.6830-1.6850 should be considered for selling as long as the bulls can’t achieve the daily closure above it.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 24, 2014

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Week In FX Europe – BoE To Judge Slack Before Hike

via MarketPulse:

The Bank of England rate announcement nearly got lost in the shuffle this week. Yesterday, Governor Carney and his fellow policy makers left both the benchmark rate at +0.5% and the overall size of its bond portfolio at £375b.

With the Fed trying to wind down its bond-buying stimulus, the ECB humming and hawing about implementing QE, Governor Carney at the BoE is expected to keep policy unchanged throughout the remainder of this year.

The UK economy is currently “basking in a spell of rapid growth and low inflation.” Earlier this week the IMF indicated that it expects the UK economy to expand +2.9% this year (less than the BoE’s forecasted rate of +3.4%), outpacing both Germany and US growth. Despite the dip in February’s inflation rate (+1.7% annualized), it is expected to hover close to the BoE’s +2% target throughout the year.

Governor Carney has been rather vocal and adamant that UK rates will remain low, keeping the BoE’s easy-monetary policy intact at least until employment improves further and when the nation’s economy is running to its full potential.

Like any G7 monetary authority, the timing of the first rate hike will be of the utmost importance. If authorities wait too long to tighten, inflation may take off. If they act too quickly, then economic recovery could quickly stall.

Fixed income traders are pricing in the BoE’s first-rate hike during Q1, 2015 – perhaps even six-months before the Fed and certainly much sooner than the ECB. No matter when authorities do decide to tighten, any rate rise is expected to be slow and limited to start.

A change in the BoE’s interest rate guidance last month (originally rates were to begin to tighten when unemployment hit +7%, currently hovering at +7.2%) emphasized that once the +7% has been passed authorities would keep a loose monetary policy at least until the “slack” in the labor market and broader economy has been reduced. To date, UK policy makers seem to have underestimated the “real” strength of the own country’s job market.

Expect going forward a hot debate in reference to the word “slack” – Carney thinks there is more “slack” in the labor market than the MPC’s best estimate.

• Spain Deflation Lower Than Reported Earlier


• UK Chancellor Says Economy Has Proven IMF Wrong


• Putin Pressures West on $2.2 Billion Ukrainian Energy Debt


• Fitch Raises Portugal Rating to Positive


• NATO Says 40,000 Russian Troops Must Withdraw From Ukraine Border


• UK Construction Shrinks in February Weather Blamed


• German Central Banker Reaffirms Deflations Risks Limited


• UK House Prices Could Rise 6% For Five Years


• Greek Bond Sale Had Huge Demand


• IMF Warns Europe About Banking System Threat


• JPMorgan CEO Says US Banks Healthier than European


• UK Trade Deficit Narrows in February


• Greek Bond Auction Welcomes 4 Year Low Yields


• Confidence In Greek Debt High – CNBC Poll


• IMF Cuts Russia Growth Forecast


• Economists Poll Says One in Three Chance of ECB To Start QE


• UK Business Confidence Rises Survey Says


• Ukraine Misses Gazprom Debt Deadline


• UK Manufacturing Grows 1 Percent in January


• IMF Forecasts UK Growth At 2.9 Percent in 2014


• UK GDP Keeps Growing But Population Rise Limits Recovery


• Hungary Prime Minister Reelected

WEEK AHEAD

* USD Advance Retail Sales

* GBP Core Consumer Price Index

* EUR German ZEW Survey

* USD Consumer Price Index

* NZD Consumer Prices Index

* CNY GDP YTD

* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

* CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision

* CAD Consumer Price Index

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Week In FX Europe – CB’s, Debt Agencies and Governments Gotta Work Together

via MarketPulse:

Are we about to face a period of “considerable turmoil’? Central Banks in the developed world are preparing to reverse some of the stimulus programs that they have put in place over the past six-years. The Paris based research body – OECD – insists that the agencies that have been responsible for selling government bonds will have to work with their respective CB’s to ensure that the “exit from all said programs run smoothly.”

The reversing of stimulus needs to come, but the potential problems have more to do with CB’s communicating their respective exit strategies without creating unnecessary volatility that could cause longer lasting negative effects. The challenge for CB’s and relevant agencies is to go about their “exit” strategy without causing yields to back up aggressively. Central Banks have yet to decide on what portion of their holdings they will be required to sell and over what time period.

The OECD said that bond sales by CB’s would likely take place when the borrowing needs of governments remain high – this will obviously lead to interest rates to back up further. Backing up is only natural; it’s the speed and aggressiveness that could become an issue. Already we have seen that investors reaction to a Fed taper has caused US yields to “move earlier and more sharply” than probably warranted by policy makers. This is not a good situation for any economy that has questionable growth rates. The reality is that this is all new for Central bankers and investors alike. Tapering has been a “novelty” and reversing this stimulus has never been done before. With that in mind it may not be possible for the financial markets to execute an “exit” without at least causing some minor financial turbulence.

Expect to hear unified dulcet tones from Central Banks, governments and debt management agencies getting louder as we approach an exit!

• European Banks Slow Down Debt Repayment Schedules


• Greek Economy Starts Showing Signs of Recovery


• IMF Announces Ukraine’s $18 Billion Bailout


• European Consumer Confidence Rises in March


• Russia Growth Was Questionable Even Before Crimea


• UK Recovery Could Signal End to Low Rates


• New Technologies Could Offset Russian Gas Supply Shortage


• After Sanctions Russia Looks East


• UK GDP Growth Downgraded to 1.7 Percent in 2013


• UK Current Account Deficit Reaches 22.4 Billion Pounds


• UK House Prices Rise 7 Percent in January


• Dutch PM Warns Russia If Further Action Taken


• Italy Holds Key To Europe’s Recovery


• BNP Paribas Optimistic About Eastern Europe


• German Business Sentiment Drops On Crimea But Hopeful on Economy


• German Central Banker Says QE Not Out of The Question


• Russia and West Continue Dialogue Over Crimea Actions


• Russia Sanctions Could Push Nation into Recession


• G7 Meeting To Suspend G8 Until Russia Changes Course


• ECB Council Member Says Bank Keeping an Eye on Euro Regarding Inflation


• G7 To Focus on Ukraine This Week


• Anti-Austerity Protest in Spain Turns Violent

WEEK AHEAD

* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate

* CAD Gross Domestic Product

* AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

* EUR German Unemployment

* USD ISM Manufacturing

* EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

* USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

* CAD Net Change in Employment

* CAD Unemployment Rate

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

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Week In FX Europe – Can Draghi Defend His Deflation Views With Gusto Again?

via MarketPulse:

Deflation remains the ECB’s nemesis and the pressure has piled again on Euro policy makers after Friday’s disappointing headline consumer price print. The annual rate of inflation for the 18-members that share the single currency, the EUR, fell to a new record low in January, with flash CPI, y/y falling to +0.7% from Decembers +0.8%. Analysts had expected an uptick to +0.9%.

With a print like this the market will expect the ECB to be more proactive. Draghi and company last cut rates in November when their annual rate of inflation fell to +0.7% from +1.1% m/m, and further away from their target just below the psychological +2% level.

Falling prices or low inflation will hinder the regions recovery from its long debt and banking crisis. Even worse, it could push the EUR members into a deflation atmosphere where prices actually fall as consumers delay their future consumption and investment needs. A lengthy period of falling prices will only further damage the Euro-zone tentative progress. Already Governments and households are struggling to finance their current debt load and when prices fall that effective “fixed” debt burden rises.

Some will argue that there are some tentative signs, like falling employment (Jan. +12% vs. +12.1% m/m) that consumer spending will rise over the coming months. But, will it be strong enough to support prices? That is the question facing the ECB. Can Draghi continue to voice with the same confidence that deflation won’t be visiting the currency bloc? Consumer price reports like this will keep the debate alive. Expect a chorus of individuals to ask for more additional stimulus to help the struggling periphery. Next weeks ECB rate announcement will make for interesting reading.

Europe’s backbone Germany is not making it any easier for Euro policymakers. German retail sales on Friday fell -2.5% in December, and easily wiped out the previous months gain of +0.9% in November. On a positive note, it does tend to be a volatile number. Friday’s headline print is in stark contrast to other recent positive reports. January’s German unemployment fell sharply, consumer confidence is on the rise and inflation remains relatively low – these are all positive that could lead to increase household spending and be a GDP plus.

• Economic Recovery Optimism Rises in Europe


• Danish Government Split on State Owned Energy Company


• What Happens in EM Stays in EM Says Goldman


• Selling In Lira, Rand Continues Despite Rate Hikes


• European Money Supply Falls To Lowest Level in 3 Years


• Angela Merkel Fires Spying Claim at US In Her State of the Union


• Turkey Move Does Not Solve Emerging Markets’ Problems


• Analysts Remain Skeptical About UK’s Recovery


• Greek Bond Yields Hit by Emerging Marking Rout


• French Unemployment Hits Record High


• Britain’s Economy Grows Fastest in Six Years


• German Business Sentiment Rises in January


• Goldman Sachs Says European Stocks Not Cheap As Well as Riskier


• Gap Between London and Rest of UK Widening


• Europe True Jobless Rate Higher As People Given Up Seeking Jobs


• European Banks Face Rising Borrowing Costs

WEEK AHEAD

* USD ISM Manufacturing

* AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

* NZD Unemployment Rate

* GBP Bank of England Rate Decision

* EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls

* CAD Unemployment Rate

* GBP Gross Domestic Product Estimate

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Week in FX Europe – Contagion, contagion, contagion!

via MarketPulse:

It been awhile since we have used this word, however, capital market seems to have decided they want to dust it off and bring it back. Expect this word to be used more in defense of last weeks late market meltdown. Many have been hesitant to use the word to describe both Thursday’s and Friday’s market moves. Why? The word typically refers to a financial shock in a vulnerable country that spills over into previously healthy economy. And that is what is happening – almost all emerging market currencies are falling against the dollar – and investors are worried about the domino effect. If the sell off escalates, similar to last August and September in Asia, then the compounding effect will be similar – the masses will run hard to the exits.

All of this is occurring only one day after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its revised global growth forecasts. IMF chief, Christine Lagarde, and her crew raised growth estimates for Japan, Europe, and the U.S., but reduced them for Latin America and Russia. Growth in the developed world is stabilizing, but not so in emerging markets. It seems that the gears of the global economy are shifting, and they are increasingly shifting toward instability in the developing economies.

Investors have taken cash from emerging Asian stock and bond funds for the eighth consecutive week as of January 22 according to EPFA data. A total of $1.4-billion left funds, more than twice the $671-million of the previous week.

• Spain Unemployment Rate Remains at 26 Percent


• BoE Decouples Rates From Job Recovery


• France Continues to Struggle Flash PMI Continues To Drop


• Silvio Berlusconi Target of New Investigation on Corruption Charges


• Italian Finance Minister Says Economy is Recovering but Jobs Lagging


• Carney Hints End of Forward Guidance


• UK Advice to Europe Repatriate Jobs


• Euro Gets a Boost From Positive PMIs


• BoE Policy Maker Warns Interest Rate Hike Would Hurt Recovery


• Don’t Expect Europe To Fly Even Though Recession May Be Over


• UK Unemployment Falls to 7.1 Percent


• George Soros to Open Health and Legal Aid Centres in Greece


• UK Manufacturing Rises in January


• Greek 2012 Deal Architect Says Greek Crisis is Off The Table


• The Different Faces of Youth Unemployment Europe


• German Regulators to Visit Deutsche London Office


• Number of Jobs Available In London Fell By 42%


• London House Prices Slowing Down

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Gross Domestic Product

* USD Durable Goods Orders

* USD Consumer Confidence

* USD Fed QE3 Pace

* USD FOMC Rate Decision

* NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision

* EUR German Unemployment Rate

* EUR German Consumer Price Index

* USD Gross Domestic Product

* USD Personal Consumption

* JPY National Consumer Price Index

* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index

* CAD Gross Domestic Product

* CNY Manufacturing PMI

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