Scientists eye longer-term forecasts of U. S. heat waves

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Scientists eye longer-term forecasts of U. S. heat waves

Scientists have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern high above the Northern Hemisphere that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance. The new research could potentially enable forecasts of the likelihood of U.S. heat waves 15-20 days out, giving society more time to prepare for these often-deadly events.

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Oct. 27, 2013 — Scientists have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern high above the Northern Hemisphere that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance.The new research, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), could potentially enable forecasts of the likelihood of U.S. heat waves 15-20 days out, giving society more time to prepare for these often-deadly events.The research team discerned the pattern by analyzing a 12,000-year simulation of the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. During those times when a distinctive “wavenumber-5″ pattern emerged, a major summertime heat wave became more likely to subsequently build over the United States.”It may be useful to monitor the atmosphere, looking for this pattern, if we find that it precedes heat waves in a predictable way,” says NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng, the lead author. “This gives us a potential source to predict heat waves beyond the typical range of weather forecasts.”The wavenumber-5 pattern refers to a sequence of alternating high- and low-pressure systems (five of each) that form a ring circling the northern midlatitudes, several miles above the surface. This pattern can lend itself to slow-moving weather features, raising the odds for stagnant conditions often associated with prolonged heat spells.The study is being published next week in Nature Geoscience. It was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, NASA, and the National Science Foundation (NSF), which is NCAR’s sponsor. NASA scientists helped guide the project and are involved in broader research in this area.Predicting a lethal eventHeat waves are among the most deadly weather phenomena on Earth. A 2006 heat wave across much of the United States and Canada was blamed for more than 600 deaths in California alone, and a prolonged heat wave in Europe in 2003 may have killed more than 50,000 people.To see if heat waves can be triggered by certain large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, the scientists looked at data from relatively modern records dating back to 1948. …

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Scientists eye longer-term forecasts of U. S. heat waves

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Scientists eye longer-term forecasts of U. S. heat waves

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